With New Democracy maintaining a strong double-digit lead over PASOK, and with Greek Solution and Course of Freedom drawing strength from the context of the farmers’ mobilizations, the year closes on the polling front, where Kyriakos Mitsotakis continues to lead with characteristic ease in suitability for prime minister compared with the other political leaders.

New Democracy is in its seventh year of governance but, despite the loss of around 13 percentage points recorded in the European elections of June 2024 – one year earlier, in the national elections, it had exceeded 40% – it manages to move on its own “track,” without at present discerning in its “visual” field a strong main opponent on the road to the national elections. In the opposition camp, PASOK stands out for the “immovable needle” of recent months, since although it is the official opposition party, its percentages are within breathing distance not of the first party, but of the third and fourth, whose leaders (Kyriakos Velopoulos and Zoe Konstantopoulou) are often several steps ahead of Nikos Androulakis in suitability for prime minister.

The picture is completed by interesting findings on the momentum of the return of Alexis Tsipras with a new party (and of Antonis Samaras with much lower performances), as well as by the measurement of the imprint of a new political entity with Maria Karystianou. In the popularity ranking of ministers, the momentum of Kyriakos Pierrakakis skyrockets after his election to the leadership of the Eurogroup – thus forming a strong duo, where Nikos Dendias leads the Minister of National Economy and Finance, but with a considerably reduced gap compared with previous MRB surveys. As for the broader political climate, high prices are by far the top problem troubling citizens, while the OPEKEPE scandal and the farmers’ mobilizations are two issues that are creating movement among the parties.

The picture of this year’s final month is specifically captured in three polls: by Opinion Poll, presented yesterday on ACTION24; by MRB for Open; and by Pulse for SKAI.

Opinion Poll measured New Democracy at 29.7% in vote estimation, recording a loss of half a point compared with November. In the measurement presented on the main news bulletin of Action 24, it maintains a significant lead of 16.1 points over PASOK, whose “needle” continues not to move – it even records a marginal drop of one tenth of a point – while the image of Nikos Androulakis also remains “frozen,” as he is in fourth place in suitability for the premiership, behind Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who leads by 19.4 points over Zoe Konstantopoulou, who is making a comeback through the parliamentary inquiry into the OPEKEPE scandal.

Above the PASOK president is also Kyriakos Velopoulos, while Greek Solution and Course of Freedom show the greatest gains in this juncture, which is dominated by concern over the continuation of high prices, with one in five voters falling into the undecided zone. Velopoulos’ party is in third place with 11.9% and a rise of 1.2 points within one month, while Konstantopoulou’s party rises by 1.1 points.

A marginal increase of 0.1 of a point is shown for the “certain” potential vote for a “Tsipras party,” reaching 9%, while the corresponding percentage for a party by Antonis Samaras is at 3.6%.

At the same time, Greek society appears divided over the closure of roads by farmers’ blockades: 8.2% say that farmers have been satisfied and are wrong to close roads; 40.7% characterize the demands as fair but disagree with road closures; and 47.5% say both that their demands are fair and that they can choose their method of protest.

Nevertheless, in a blurred juncture with many challenges, mainly economic, for the majority of Greek society, a significant percentage – 39.7% – state that they are optimistic about 2026, while 46.5% declare pessimism.

Slight ups and downs in party percentages were shown by the MRB measurement presented on the main news bulletin of Open. New Democracy loses one point and was measured at 29.2%, while PASOK is a “global constant” at 14.1%, as MRB CEO Dimitris Mavros said.

This particular measurement records a strong rise and finds Greek Solution in third place, while it measures a significant drop for Course of Freedom, which appears to be rising noticeably in other measurements, such as Opinion Poll’s. Specifically, Velopoulos’ party gains almost one point, and Course of Freedom loses 3.2 points in voting intention compared with MRB’s measurement last June.

The measurement yields an eight-party Parliament, as Niki, the Kasselakis party, and New Left remain outside after extrapolation to the total.

In suitability for the premiership, Kyriakos Mitsotakis receives 24.1%, with Zoe Konstantopoulou second at 8.7%, Kyriakos Velopoulos third at 8.3%, and Nikos Androulakis only fourth with 8%.

Public opinion positions are particularly negative regarding the government’s handling of the OPEKEPE issue, with only 16.7% approving. By contrast, 71.2% characterize the farmers’ mobilizations as justified, while 79.9% characterize their demands as “fair.”

The popularity of the ministers

A strong duo – with Nikos Dendias leading Kyriakos Pierrakakis, but with a considerably reduced difference compared with previous surveys after his election to the presidency of the Eurogroup – is produced by the MRB measurement. Specifically, the Minister of Defense receives 39.7% positive opinions, and the Minister of National Economy and Finance 34.1%.

The new parties

The certain potential vote for a Tsipras party was measured at 8.3%, with the broader perimeter of his space reaching 23.2%, with a reduction of more than 3.5 points compared with last June. It is noted that the “I would definitely vote for it” has been limited to 2.8% for a Samaras party.

By contrast, the “perimeter” of a party led by Maria Karystianou reaches 31.8% – however, MRB CEO Dimitris Mavros said that over time, acceptance of a political movement on her part decreases, despite her having 65% popularity.

In the Pulse poll, New Democracy stands at 29% in vote estimation, while those who view a Tsipras party positively fell to 11% from 14%. New Democracy is recorded one point down, PASOK half a point down, and Course of Freedom two points up in voting intention. One in two of those who declare themselves positive or find a Tsipras party interesting ask him to be selective with SYRIZA cadres. There are, however, small fluctuations compared with the November survey, when current affairs were dominated by major energy agreements with the US. Now, the agenda is dominated by the explosive sessions of the parliamentary inquiry into OPEKEPE – so Zoe Konstantopoulou gains two points and reaches 11% in vote estimation, returning to third place, above Greek Solution, which remains “immovable” in this measurement, as do the other parties, while the “gray zone” also remains stable at 18%.

It is interesting that those who declare themselves “positive” toward a “Tsipras party” fell from 14% in November to 11%, while those who declare “interest” in such a development remained stable at 10%, giving a “perimeter” of 21% for the upcoming venture. However, this specific group asks, at a rate of 46%, that the former prime minister be selective about whom he takes from SYRIZA.

Hope, the main criterion of the vote

It is interesting that in the question about the main emotion with which voters will choose what to vote for in the national elections, 50% speak of perspective – who offers hope. This is followed by who offers security at 22%, punitive voting at 11%, and rewarding what was done right at 9%.