– Hello there. Today I’ll tell you a nice story from the recent past, sometime in early 2019, four to five months before the national elections. I remembered it now because these days it feels like a bit of a déjà vu. So, many of us would occasionally have a coffee with the former President of the Republic, Prokopis Pavlopoulos, always in his welcoming office at the Presidential Mansion. Whenever the discussion turned to the upcoming national elections, Prokopis would say something like… yes, my dear boy, New Democracy will come first, but Mitsotakis won’t get more than 30%. You all remember the result: an outright majority with around 38%. The same movie played again in 2023, when Mitsotakis was supposedly “getting” 27% to 30% and ended up with 40%. Don’t ask why Prokopis, Karamanlis and the whole “Rafina crowd” were saying this, in 2019 and again in 2023, because it was (and is) crystal clear. They never liked Mitsotakis and wanted him to lose. After all, they went with Tsipras in 2015; that’s why Alexis made one of them (Pavlopoulos) President of the Republic and kept Karamanlis… on a pedestal. I want to be honest: these people, the Karamanlises, or the Karamanlists (though I don’t believe they’ve really existed for years), never liked him and never hid it. Lately, Samaras has also turned sour and today he’s saying pretty blunt things about Mitsotakis—but again, it seems wrong to me, yet it’s his taste, his call; he has an opinion and he voices it. What is rather incomprehensible is the way Nikos Dendias has been expressing himself lately—almost like a guerrilla fighter—and the things he’s been saying. Smart, refined, educated, both theoretically and professionally (his legal business ventures), Dendias has no excuse for… playing it this way. I can understand tearing into Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu inside Ankara—you rack up national points back home. But now these back-and-forths with nonsense about the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, hanging out with the Far Right or oligarchs–enemies of New Democracy, and quips about being worried over Mitsotakis’ poll numbers… they just don’t add up. And they don’t suit him. Because, if you didn’t catch it, what Dendias said a few days ago was that he is supposedly worried that New Democracy has low polling numbers.

Pressure… mistakes

– As we said yesterday, perhaps lately Nikos D. feels some pressure because the scenario of a “change of leader on the move” in New Democracy doesn’t seem to be advancing. Personally, that “on the move” sounded pale to me from the outset. Now another version has emerged: the regular succession once Mitsotakis is done after one (or half) more term. And there he’ll run into… other models of politicians (not fashion models, eh?) like Kyriakos Pierrakakis, and perhaps others. But c’est la vie, as the French say. Anyway, just talk for the sake of talk—I’m sharing thoughts and gossip in a political gossip column, don’t take them to heart. I saw yesterday that our Nikos got mildly taken to task by Lazaridis and Fevgas, two New Democracy figures—big deal, nothing really happened—and then spokesman Pavlos softened it up and all was well. Moving on…

Visit to the floods

– Let’s move to current affairs. The long-suffering Evros is being tested these days by a significant rise in the river’s water level, because the Ardas swelled from melting snow in Bulgaria, flooding villages and farmland in the northern part of the prefecture. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who will be in the region with a group of ministers for the “blue” pre-conference in Alexandroupoli, will adjust his schedule and visit some of the affected areas, because after the fires came the floods.

Rubio in Athens in the spring

– An interesting menu is expected at the meeting between Giorgos Gerapetritis and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which will take place either late today (Greek time) or even towards Thursday, depending on the American official’s rolling schedule. What I hear is that Rubio is planning to come in the spring for the Greek–American Strategic Dialogue in Athens—after Easter, I’d say. Obviously, with Gerapetritis they’ll discuss all open issues, from regional developments and the situation in the Middle East and, by extension, Iran, to matters of bilateral interest. What’s interesting, though, is that the door of the State Department seems to be open—although I find it very noteworthy that he was invited to Washington, given that Gerapetritis was in the U.S. just a month ago and they also spoke by phone.

The new minimum wage

– At the March Cabinet meeting, Mitsotakis said yesterday during the session of the Government Council for Economic Policy, the bill on the new minimum wage—effective from April 1—will be introduced. Based on current data, from today’s €880 some estimate it could rise to €930 (gross), while tax brackets have also changed. In this way, Mitsotakis’ pre-election commitment for a €950 minimum wage by 2027 will almost have been achieved a year before the elections, and it remains to be seen where the “ball will land” next year. Note, of course, that the increase is paid by businesses.

PASOK is here (that is, somewhere around 1981…)

– In the effort to broaden PASOK, beyond the evergreen Petros Lambrou, Kostas Laliotis is now deeply involved: he’s making phone calls, stirring the pot, pushing for the return of former comrades. “Two more waves of expansion are coming,” he tells interlocutors, referring to well-known current and former MPs as well as mid-level cadres from across the country. “Just don’t let them drown us, comrade,” some reply sarcastically, seeing that among the names being floated are big shots who caused trouble in the past. In the next ten days or so, the next round of names will likely be announced, those in the know say. Admiral Evangelos Apostolakis is very close, although, as he says, “PASOK is pressuring me, but I’m waiting for Tsipras…”. The same goes for Athina Linou, whom some also want back. By contrast, I hear that quite a few are vetoing (such as Nina Kasimati) any potential return of Giannis Ragousis. Thanos Moraitis denies being interested in the post of Regional Governor of Western Greece, but his credibility is questioned. After all, he’s the same man who, one day before being sworn in as a Tsipras minister, assured everyone he was staying with PASOK. In any case, challenging the current regional governor Nikos Farmakis in Western Greece is both difficult and far afield. So it’s more likely he’ll return as a candidate MP for Aetolia-Acarnania, running against Christina Staraka, who did not support Androulakis in the internal party contest. Staraka and Moraitis used to be inseparable, but they fell out long ago. Note that any Moraitis candidacy would also cause tremors among other candidates, such as Dimitris Konstantopoulos, Giorgos Kalliakmanis, and others. Fellow Aetolia-Acarnanian and former SYRIZA minister Panagiotis Kouroumplis is said to be preparing for Western Athens, against Nantia Giannakopoulou and Lefteris Karchimakis. For balance toward the right, names like Giorgos Kyrtsos are also being heard at Harilaou Trikoupi; lately he’s been praising Nikos Androulakis in his posts, with whom he maintains personal relations. Channels have also opened to figures such as Zefi Dimadama or people close to Andreas Loverdos. Everyone admits, however, that expanding on both sides will tilt the boat, as the margins toward the center–center right have been exhausted.

Eyes on Alexis

– The eyes and ears of PASOK members, however, are firmly fixed on Alexis Tsipras, awaiting his decisions. Some think he’ll go for September, others May, and some say he might not even form a party at all. “Why would he? To come in fourth?” argue mainly Androulakis supporters. All agree, though, that “he won’t do anything remarkable,” as in prime-ministerial suitability he ranks even below Androulakis. “After the Pallas event, no one in PASOK sees Tsipras as an attractive product,” they say, citing Haris Kastanidis, who, despite unbearable pressure to attend the presentation of Ithaca in Thessaloniki, didn’t go and didn’t allow his people to go either. Likewise Antonis Saoulidis, who, though flirting with Tsipras’ party, went to Androulakis’ cake-cutting and lately posts constantly about PASOK. As for Thessaly Regional Governor Dimitris Kouretas, whom many see as casting a sideways glance at Tsipras, an experienced party hand who knows him well predicts: “Kouretas will follow the Arnoutakis path and next time will run again with New Democracy’s backing.”

Greece… first

– At the Ministerial Summit organized at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace by the White House and the National Energy Dominance Council on “Transatlantic Gas Security Summit,” I hear something paradoxical happened. In the joint statement of participating countries, in “violation” of alphabetical protocol order, the Hellenic Republic was mentioned first—showing American recognition of the government for what it has done in energy. In fact, Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou had a seat at the main table alongside U.S. Interior and Energy Secretary Doug Burgum, Chris Wright, Cheniere Energy and Venture Global bosses Jack Fusco and Mike Sabel, Energy Director-General Ditte Juul Jorgensen, and the U.S. Ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle.

Who will get money from the Development Law

– Six schemes of the Development Law have entered the Ministry of Development’s pipeline for launch in the coming months. Two, confirmed at yesterday’s briefing of the Council for Economic Policy, are “Business Extroversion,” targeting industrial, tourism and manufacturing investments aimed at new markets, and “Social Entrepreneurship and Handicrafts,” aimed at supporting social enterprises, cooperatives and very small businesses, with particular emphasis on women’s entrepreneurship in the regions. Beyond that, new calls are being prepared for two “heavyweight” schemes with strong demand: “Manufacturing – Supply Chain” to boost production units and logistics, and “Agri-food – Primary Production & Processing” to support the agricultural sector. Finally, there are two areas that Development Minister Takis Theodorikakos himself has prioritized for support: investments in artificial intelligence tools, and investments in defense technology and industry.

Double judicial “blockade” on a tourism investment in Syros

– With investors in recent years—especially the last two to three—turning toward less crowded tourist destinations, residents and local bodies now seem to be digging in their heels against new projects, even when these promise to upgrade the local tourism product to five-star level. This is precisely the case of the investment being promoted by the Berzawi Group, with Greek–Lebanese capital, on Syros, which is now facing a double judicial “blockade.” The Syros Environmental Quality Observatory has filed an application for annulment before the Council of State (Fifth Chamber), as well as an application for annulment and a request for suspension before the Administrative Court of Appeal of Piraeus, seeking the cancellation of the construction of the “Integrated Tourist Resort” in the Harasonas area, the annulment of the building permits issued by the Syros–Ermoupoli Urban Planning Authority for the area, and the suspension of the execution of those permits until a ruling is issued on the annulment request. The core of the legal argument, as the bodies maintain, focuses on the absence of an Environmental Impact Study / Environmental Terms Approval Decision, the project’s conflict with the land uses of the Local Urban Plan currently under preparation, the lack of frontage of the plots on a public communal road, and a de facto “private urban planning” outside institutional planning.

With a request for “strategic investment” status

– The Berzawi Group has decades-long activity in the hotel sector and real estate, in the Cyclades—mainly Mykonos and Syros—but also in other top destinations across Greece, through both the management of owned properties and third-party assets in Santorini, Ios, Paros, Crete, Corfu, Porto Heli, and elsewhere, as well as on the Athenian Riviera. For a specific part of the residential plan, the company ELLINIKA PARADOSIAKA SPITIA S.A., linked to the Berzawi Group, has applied for inclusion under the “strategic investment” regime (via ESCHASE), under which it seeks to construct an integrated tourist complex comprising a hotel with a capacity of 166 beds and 69 Furnished Tourist Residences (FTRs) with a capacity of 249 beds, with a built area exceeding 20,000 sq.m. on a site of 531,251 sq.m., allegedly originating from the “consolidation” of 56 individual properties, as noted by the Observatory regarding the project’s initial budget of €75.9 million. In the wider area, the Greek–Lebanese group has already proceeded, since the previous decade, with the construction of the first villas, sold to Greek and foreign buyers from Lebanon, Egypt, France, and elsewhere. The family is also linked ownership-wise, among other assets, to Casa Del Mar Mykonos Seaside Resort in Mykonos—their first venture chronologically—as well as the newer Castro Hotel Syros housed in a listed 19th-century building, in addition to their activity in the food and beverage sector.

The Sinokor effect and the Greeks making millions

– Sinokor Maritime has moved far beyond being a company that merely buys VLCCs and has turned into an investment whirlwind in global shipping. In Sinokor’s case, Greek shipowners are on the front lines of the game without even having to lift a finger. They had the foresight to invest in ultra-large crude carriers (VLCCs) and are now counting the abundant cash flows. Within just a few months, the South Korean giant has amassed 24% of the VLCC spot fleet—a share that would have been unthinkable in other times for a single player. And who is exploiting this storm? Greek shipowners, who are capitalizing on high prices by selling mid-aged vessels into a buying wave that rarely repeats itself. Dynacom, Capital Group of Marinakis, Delta Tankers of Diamantidis, Hellas Chandris, Kyklades Maritime of Alafouzos, TMS Tankers of Economou, Pantheon Tankers of Anna Angelicoussis, and others are selling strategic assets, leveraging the scarcity of available mid-aged VLCCs and the “must-have” appetite of a foreign giant seeking to control the game. Greek money, as always, knows how to sit at the right table in shipping and walk away with the biggest share. Sinokor, by buying VLCCs from Greeks, is creating strategic dependence. The Greeks sell, but at the same time keep the keys to the game, as they remain the main suppliers capable of influencing the global fleet.

Freight rates up to $173,000 per day!

– Staying with the subject of ultra-large crude carriers, this time focusing on charters. Here’s the picture. The VLCC market is revving up again, and this time Greek-interest companies are on the front line. Despite the Lunar New Year holiday in the Far East, freight rate levels not only held up but moved higher, as analysts at the Baltic Exchange note. On the West Africa–China route, China’s Unipec fixed the Irini N Lemos, 319,000 dwt, built in 2019, a vessel of Greek Enesel (of Antonis and Filippos Nikolaou Lemos), at $163,000 per day. The previous fixture for scrubber-fitted VLCCs on the same route stood at $127,000 per day on a round-voyage basis. The difference is substantial and shows how quickly the market “tightens” when the supply of available vessels shrinks. Similarly, on the Middle East–Thailand route, PTT raised the bar, fixing the Olympic Life, 319,000 dwt, built in 2019, of Olympic Shipping & Management (Onassis interests), managed by Mercuria. The vessel, also scrubber-fitted, fixed at $149,000, while on a round-voyage basis it reaches $173,000. A day earlier, a similar vessel on the same route was trading lower, around $157,000 per day.

Shipowners hold the upper hand

– The critical factor is not just the deals themselves, but the backdrop: availability lists in the Middle East for early-March cargoes remain tight. When the tonnage list—the supply of capacity—tightens, charterers are pressured to move quickly, translating into a premium for modern, scrubber-fitted vessels, a category where Greek shipowners have a strong presence. For Wall Street, the message is twofold. First, cash flows of listed companies with VLCC exposure are improving markedly compared with recent days. Second, volatility remains high. If charterers “hit the brakes” to cool sentiment, we may see a short-term correction. However, with limited supply of immediately available vessels and increased demand for early-March cargoes, the upper hand currently lies with shipowners—especially Greek-interest groups with the right fleet at the right age.

A battleground for big shipping names

– Let’s now turn to newbuildings. Danaos closed two 211,000 dwt bulk carriers at Panjin Dajin for 2028, while Maran Dry Management committed to four firm plus two optional 181,000 dwt vessels at Hengli for 2027–2028, all scrubber-fitted. In tankers, the Greek presence was even stronger. Navios is closing four 310,000 dwt VLCCs at Wuhu for 2028 at USD 121 million per vessel; Capital Ship Management is committing eleven 306,000 dwt VLCCs at Hengli for 2028–2030; while Dynacom Tankers and Minerva Marine are adding 158,000 dwt Suezmaxes at Hengli for 2029–2030 at low-USD 80 million levels. These orders clearly show the Greeks’ plan: large capacities, modern technology, scrubber-fitted, to keep their ships ahead of the market for decades. VLCCs and Suezmaxes are becoming a battleground for the big Greek names, and insiders say the next profit wave will be decided here. In the second-hand market, moves were more “classic” but equally impressive. FS DILIGENCE and FS ENDEAVOR (108,994 dwt, 2012, Namura–Imari) passed into Greek hands at $43 million each, while PGC ALEXANDRIA (74,996 dwt, 2006, Onomichi) also changed Greek hands at $15.8 million. On the sales side, MICHALIS H (180,355 dwt, 2012, Dalian) went for USD 35.2 million plus a time charter to Trafigura.

New attempt for LARCO

– Six years are completed this year since the start of the effort to privatize LARCO through the “liquidation in operation” model, a process designed to keep production alive while seeking an investor to utilize the assets of the historic nickel mining industry. The course of the project has been particularly complex. Legal and institutional pending issues, state-aid matters, high energy costs, and successive extensions and appeals led to delays, culminating in the tender being declared unsuccessful in 2024. At times, there were reports of interest from a strong industrial group, but no binding and viable proposal emerged, leaving the process unresolved. In this new framework, based on the Joint Ministerial Decision of Kyriakos Pierrakakis and Stavros Papastavrou published in the Government Gazette on February 5, the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP) is tasked with evaluating the tender procedures for the disposal of LARCO’s assets and the mining rights of the Greek State. HCAP is called upon to examine whether conditions exist for re-launching the tender or whether a different utilization model is required, based on updated economic, social, and environmental data. The relevant report must be submitted within two months of the decision’s publication, with expenses covered by privatization revenues. At the same time, the social issue of the settlement in Larymna remains open, where dozens of families still reside who are no longer employed in mining but continue to receive benefits such as free electricity and water. The cost burdens the State, at a time when the LARCO case is still seeking a final and sustainable solution. The coming period is expected to be decisive.

Big business names on the SEKPY board

– The composition of the new board of the Hellenic Association of Defense Material Manufacturers (SEKPY), which emerged from the recent elections, made an impression. Major business names will now participate in management, proving that the Greek defense industry is stepping up and preparing for developments unfolding in the sector in Greece and Europe alike. On the Association’s board—now representing more than 320 member companies—will be, among others, METLEN of Evangelos Mytilineos, GEK TERNA of Giorgos Peristeris, Intracom Defense (of Israel’s IAI), APELLA (in which Aegean of Eftychios Vassilakis recently acquired 45%), as well as newer, highly technological firms such as DELIAN and FEAC. Notably, companies will be represented by senior executives, underscoring the weight they attach to participation. It is certainly encouraging for the domestic defense industry that major companies from different sectors are now involved at the highest level. As SEKPY President Tasos Rozolis—re-elected for another term—has said, this is the sector’s last major opportunity, as the country is running the largest armaments program of recent decades worth €30 billion, while the EU is also launching multi-billion-euro investments in defense and security. Beyond companies’ willingness, what is now needed is a national strategy for defense and industry—hence SEKPY’s standing demand for the creation of a General Secretariat or a deputy ministry for the Defense Industry.

The two faces of the Athens Stock Exchange

– Yesterday’s session on Athens Avenue confirmed the domestic market’s entry into a corrective phase, with the General Index recording its third consecutive decline. The picture on the board revealed a clear split, as heavy pressure on sectors that led in the previous period—mainly banks—was partially offset by selective placements in stocks with strong fundamentals and an export orientation. The banking sector was at the center of liquidations, continuing to feel pressure from international portfolios. Profit-taking is seen as expected by most analysts, given the need to cool valuations. However, the intensity of selling was amplified by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and a new escalation in rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran. On the other hand, the session highlighted a series of “counterweights” that limited the slide of the General Index. Viohalco led this defensive formation, capitalizing on the recent entry of high-profile institutional capital such as Capital Group. At the same time, VIO’s inclusion in the Large Cap index of FTSE Russell triggered strong inflows. Positive contributions also came from OTE, which functioned as a classic defensive haven, and Motor Oil, benefiting from refining margins remaining at satisfactory levels. Completing the picture of resistance was GEK TERNA, with investors focusing on the landmark agreement with Ukrhydroenergo for pumped-storage and hydroelectric projects worth €1.5 billion in Ukraine.