Hello, to start today’s note on a lighter tone, I would like to say that I understand how very serious things are in the Middle East, now that two giants of our political scene, Androulakis and Famellos, have called for the convening of a council of political leaders. Incredible, right? You wake up on a Monday morning after 48 hours of chaos in the region and, just so we have something to talk about, you ask—why not—for a meeting of party leaders. So that Nikos can be informed about what exactly? Whether we should send forces to Cyprus, something self-evident under the unified defense doctrine? Or Famellos, who has supported the Russians and the mullahs his entire life, along with the entire Left? Anyway, that was just a joking remark—let’s move to the serious matters, after clarifying that Mitsotakis did not refuse for a single moment to brief the leaders, but naturally in one-on-one meetings, because convening party leaders means something different. It will be interesting, however, to learn how today’s meeting between K.M. and our leader Nikos went. So far, their tete-a-tetes have amounted to… half-handshakes and Androulakis grumbling, because Nikos doesn’t like talking to the Right—unless it is doing business and being patronized by some major power broker or oligarch; for example, it’s different with Dendias, with whom they have mutual friends. Now to the serious issues. According to the Americans and the Israelis, as they initially said, the war would not last more than a week; now Trump says it will last more than five weeks. What will happen after that—what political regime will prevail—no one is clearly saying for the moment, although in practice the protagonists of the regime until now have departed for Allah. At the same time, what matters most for the security of the region is that until then the allies will not have left the mullahs with so much as a baptismal font stick from their weapons systems.

Steadily with the winners

Now, before we move on to the Greek presence in the wider war zone—meaning Cyprus, because we have no other involvement—let me make an observation. In recent months, in everything happening globally and especially in our neighborhood and sphere of interest, Greece has been present and on the right side for the country’s interests. Even more consistently than certain other Western allies, but generally on the right line. Whether one agrees ideologically or not, Greece’s interests coincide with those of the Americans and those of Israel, who are the strong players in this matter. The rest is idle talk.

Christodoulides’ phone call

Let’s now move to developments on the ground. While K.M. had scheduled a briefing yesterday with the heads of Greece’s embassies and consulates in Iran and the Middle East, a “new situation” suddenly arose in Cyprus following the attack on the British base by two drones that appeared headed toward the island. At that point, Christodoulides called the Maximos Mansion, informing the Prime Minister of the new situation, and it was immediately decided that Greece would assist Cyprus, with K.M. informing Dendias. What is interesting is that the frigate KIMON will be tested in the field for the first time, as it arrived in Greece a month ago, while the anti-drone system KENTAVROS, which the frigate PSARA will carry, will also be tested in practice. The second KENTAVROS system is currently installed on the frigate HYDRA, which is operating in the Red Sea as part of Operation ASPIDES.

Dendias’ visit

Thus, Dendias today sets off for Cyprus together with the Chief of the Hellenic National Defense General Staff, Houpis, where they will meet President Christodoulides and Defense Minister Vassilis Palmas. His presence is obviously symbolic, but also substantive, as Greece and Cyprus are now called upon to have upgraded operational coordination. It remains to be seen what time Dendias will return to Athens, as he will be called upon to brief Mitsotakis, either by phone or in person.

The evacuation plan

I am told that in Mitsotakis’ discussion with ambassadors and consuls from the Middle East, operational needs were laid out in case the reopening of national airspace is permitted. That is not yet feasible, but Athens, in cooperation with Aegean and Sky Express, has passenger lists ready. For the Greek government, the key objective is for Greeks in Gulf countries to remain in a safe location until their departure from the conflict zone becomes possible.

Security services

Another element to bear in mind is that the security services of Greece and Gulf countries maintain direct relations and exchange information, based on memoranda of cooperation signed in recent years—for example with the United Arab Emirates. In any case, days like these demonstrate the need for stable leadership, not political adventures in a turbulent neighborhood.

The banks and other people’s money

If the Government truly wants to address the regime of low deposit interest rates offered by banks, the best way is to allow Greek citizens to freely purchase bonds and treasury bills at issuance. Today, participation at issuance is permitted only to “primary dealers,” that is, the banks, which buy public debt with depositors’ money. In other words, they borrow at 0.31%, which was the average deposit rate at the end of 2025, or at 1.18% for fixed-term private deposits up to two years, and they lend to the Greek state at 3–3.5%. Instead of collecting a commission for a simple intermediary service, they make huge profits with other people’s money.

We’re selling emerging markets

Now to market news, starting with the war storm that swept through the Stock Exchange yesterday. It doesn’t take special analysis or wisdom to see that the Athens Stock Exchange was caught in the “sell emerging markets” trend. Many orders came from abroad, with brokers saying that as long as the war continues, the stock market will remain under pressure.

Iranian Shahed drones and the Greek Stock Exchange

The geopolitical “storm” in the Middle East has turned the Athens Stock Exchange board into a battlefield, with the General Index yesterday recording a plunge approaching 4% at the day’s lows. The escalation of tensions between the U.S.–Israel and Iran, following strikes on Tehran and the suspension of LNG production by QatarEnergy, triggered a wave of mass liquidations in European markets, which hit the shallow Greek market particularly hard. As for yesterday’s losers, banks were at the center of selling, bearing the brunt of profit-taking. The systemic banks recorded losses between 3.2% and 6.7%, as investors withdrew capital from a sector that had led in previous months. Heavyweights in energy and infrastructure also faced strong pressure, such as the Viohalco group, PPC, Metlen, and GEK TERNA, which saw their valuations drop under the weight of international uncertainty and soaring energy costs. The air transport sector was also in the red due to flight cancellations, with Aegean and Athens International Airport recording strong losses. On the other hand, very few stocks managed to resist, acting as “safe havens.” Motor Oil showed notable resilience, as the surge in Brent oil prices—even above $80 per barrel—and the 35% rise in natural gas favor profit margins for energy groups with strong refining operations. Selective defensive moves were also observed in OTE, which corrected moderately despite its recent climb to multi-year highs of €18. The telecom group’s stock maintains its defensive profile, with Eurobank Equities describing it as a credible income vehicle for yield-focused investors.

The Dutchman bought the… Ministry of the Interior

The building at 15 Vasilissis Sofias Avenue, which for years has housed the Ministry of the Interior, was acquired by Ellaktor. The company, owned by the well-known Dutch investor H. Holterman, through its subsidiary LANDMARK, agreed with Prodea—until recently the building’s owner—to purchase it for €44 million. The amount came entirely from Ellaktor’s own funds, as it maintains strong liquidity and has now turned toward building a strong real estate portfolio. It is noted that this particular building, leased to the Greek state and housing the Ministry of the Interior, was one of the properties that AKTOR was to acquire, but the deal was officially canceled last September. Previously, the site was occupied by the Ralli–Skaramangas mansion, designed by architect Aristotelis Zachos, but it was demolished in the mid-1950s and the current building was constructed in its place.

Maria Sferoutsa’s “football-style” pay (DESFA)
In the energy sector, top-level moves often resemble football transfers. Not only for their symbolism, but also for the financial figures that accompany them. And in the case of the new CEO of the Hellenic Gas Transmission System Operator (DESFA), Maria Sferoutsa, the numbers are dizzying and resemble a “Champions League of energy” contract. With a recent decision by DESFA’s Board of Directors, her appointment was approved for the period from February 8, 2026 to February 7, 2029, following special permission requested from the Italian company Snam, which is a related shareholder of DESFA. The total approved remuneration for the three-year term amounts to €1,676,004 plus VAT. Specifically, for the period from February 8 to December 31, 2026, the amount foreseen is €484,332; for 2027, €556,739; for 2028, €573,441; and for the period January 1 to February 7, 2029, €61,492. On an annual basis, the remuneration averages approximately €560,000, that is about €46,000–48,000 per month, depending on the year. M. Sferoutsa’s presence in Washington, at meetings on transatlantic energy coordination and strengthening LNG flows to Europe, confirmed that DESFA remains at the core of developments surrounding the Vertical Corridor and Greece’s role as a transmission hub toward Eastern and Central Europe.

The background of a maritime blackmail
Risk assessment reports by companies regarding increased risk in the Persian Gulf are not merely technical evaluations of the situation. They are a political act. When MARSEC 3 is activated—the highest alert level for assessing a possible or imminent threat, in this case for the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman—the message is not addressed only to ship captains and fleet management companies. It concerns ministerial offices, financial markets, and military headquarters. Maritime security becomes a measurable geopolitical indicator. Tehran appears to be choosing a strategy that carefully balances between threat and the avoidance of total confrontation. It has not proceeded to an official closure of the Strait, yet VHF broadcasts about a “shutdown,” attacks in close proximity to the coast, electronic interference, and controlled strikes on port facilities create an environment in which passage remains formally open but essentially unsafe. In this gray zone, uncertainty acts as a force multiplier.

Iran knows that an open naval confrontation with the U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, would carry disproportionate costs. By contrast, the gradual undermining of the sense of security achieves political results without crossing the threshold of irreversible escalation. The passage does not officially close, but it is operationally contested. Behind the scenes, the real tension is reflected in market indicators. War risk premiums rise by as much as 50%, freight rates are adjusted, and shipping companies reassess routes. If the image of uncertainty solidifies, the market may impose an informal restriction of passage, without the need for an official announcement of closure. That would perhaps constitute the most effective pressure scenario: international shipping self-restricting out of fear of risk. The essence is that shipping has become a central field for the exercise of geopolitical power.

Cruise sector: As if we didn’t have enough, more keeps coming
The military conflict in the Middle East, which is ablaze and whose repercussions are reaching Cyprus, is causing intense concern for the upcoming tourist season. In coastal shipping, the major nightmare is the increase in fuel prices, only part of which can be passed on to ticket prices, because if the full cost is transferred, no one will travel. Fares, in any case, will rise. Not to mention the transport cost of goods and basic necessities for island residents. A blow is also expected in maritime tourism, since for big spenders—mainly Americans—I am almost certain they believe Greece is located next to Iran. In the broader picture, there is also cruising. I had a discussion with industry executives who pointed out that the port of Piraeus, the flagship of cruising in Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean, is expected to see fewer cruise ship arrivals in 2026 compared to 2025. From 853 last year, they will drop to 756 this year, according to data so far. And this was before the conflict in the Persian Gulf began. Major companies have turned their focus to the Western Mediterranean and to destinations outside Europe.

9% of the global VLCC fleet “trapped” in the Persian Gulf
The shadow of war hangs heavily over the Strait of Hormuz, dragging with it a critical segment of global shipping. With transits reduced by as much as 70% and nearly 9% of the global VLCC supertanker fleet “trapped” in the Persian Gulf, the market is not reacting with panic but with frozen anticipation. Shipowners are hitting the brakes, insurers are withdrawing war risk coverage, and AIS signals are selectively going silent. The déjà vu of the 1980s and the “Tanker War” returns as a whisper. The threat, more than the actual loss of cargoes, is what inflates freight rates. The shipping market operates preemptively. It prices fear before the damage. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative pipeline routes, but Iran and much of southern Iraq do not have the luxury of bypassing the Strait. If Hormuz “dries up,” the shock will not only be energy-related but also financial, with an immediate impact on insurance premiums, liquidity, and shipping asset valuations. At this stage, the real question is not whether freight rates will rise, but who will endure longer in this game of nerves.

The surge in freight rates
As we said yesterday—and earlier above—the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader flare-up in the region are driving up insurance premiums and tanker freight rates, and just hours later the first news broke. The VLCC “Solana”—330 meters long and 60 meters wide—owned by George Economou, which departed from India bound for China, is usually chartered at around $40,000–50,000 per day, which is considered excellent. Yesterday, following the developments in the Middle East, the charter agreement for this vessel closed at $250,000 per day, five times the usual rate. The voyage is expected to last approximately fifteen days—including loading and unloading of the oil—and revenues will amount to $3,750,000.

Occupational Pension Funds for National Bank and tourism
National Bank will be the fourth systemic bank to offer additional insurance and pension coverage to its employees, creating a new Occupational Pension Fund co-financed by employer and employees. The changes being prepared for the second pension pillar by Niki Kerameus, with the new bill on Occupational Pension Funds (TEA), have sparked significant interest from both employers and employees. It is indicative that the Panhellenic Federation of Hoteliers (POX) has also submitted a file for the creation of an Occupational Pension Fund. The POX TEA will cover 150,000 employees in tourism and food services working in 10,500 businesses in the sector. The creation of the Tourism TEA is provided for in the sectoral agreement recently signed, which stipulates that employers will contribute 2% of each employee’s salary toward participation in the new Fund.

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rises while the rest of the world falls
There is the good scenario and the bad scenario. Markets price probabilities. When everyone runs to sell, some buy. This is exactly what is happening right now on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. While the major global stock markets have turned red out of fear of a major, prolonged and deep crisis in Iran, the Israeli TA-125 index is moving in the opposite direction, rising by +3.4%. Remarkable indifference to the geopolitical turmoil around it. Those who are buying are looking to the good scenario for the coming days. Their argument is simple: after the bombings, Iran will in no case be the Iran of the Ayatollahs. If a government with a different agenda emerges—more cooperative and more open—the entire region will change face and prospects overnight. This scenario, to which probabilities of around 50% are attributed, speaks of a region transforming into an economic El Dorado. Reconstruction, energy projects, infrastructure investments, open markets with hundreds of millions of consumers. At the center of this new order would be Israel, with its financial infrastructure, technology companies, and international connections. If—and provided that—this scenario materializes, today’s buyers in TASE will be vindicated. That is why the TA-125 is rising while the rest of the world is falling. There is, of course, also the bad scenario, the one no one wants to articulate aloud. A 40% probability that things remain unfinished. No regime change, no stability, no El Dorado. Just another region of the planet in unstable equilibrium, with visible risks of escalation—something no portfolio can afford to hold indefinitely.

The “Cockroach” from London and the hit to Barclays, Santander, Jefferies, etc.
Non-bank lending is turning into a major problem for Wall Street. A relatively unknown British mortgage company is shaking the foundations of the world’s largest stock exchange. It all began last Friday, when the collapse of Market Financial Solutions (MFS), a London-based firm specializing in complex property-backed loans, became public. The bankruptcy announcement reminded everyone of Jamie Dimon’s warnings about “cockroaches” in the private credit sector. The issue is not the size of MFS, but the nature of its collapse. According to documents filed with the High Court of London, MFS is accused of having devised the trick of “double-pledging” collateral. In other words, for loans totaling £1.16 billion, the real value of the collateral amounted to just £230 million. A massive gap of nearly £930 million was created. This very tactic—using the same assets as collateral for multiple lenders—was also the cause of the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor last September. MFS was a non-bank lender attempting to fill the financing gap that large banks tend to avoid. The problem is that MFS itself was financed by the very large banks it sought to compete against. This vicious circle—banks funding opaque non-bank lenders, who in turn grant loans with “loose procedures”—is now under the markets’ microscope. Who was lending to MFS? Banking giants such as Barclays, Santander, Wells Fargo, Jefferies, and Atlas SP Partners of Apollo Global Management. The collapse of MFS is a “double blow” for Jefferies, which was already exposed due to its role in the failure of First Brands. The same bank, two different scandals, one common problem: collateral that is not worth what the paper says it is. Dimon had spoken of “cockroaches.” When you see one, there are surely more. MFS is the third major cockroach.

When Amazon overtook Walmart
It is the end of an era. A sign of the times. E-commerce has defeated traditional retail. With revenues of $716.9 billion for 2025, Amazon surpassed Walmart. For the first time in history, the world’s largest retailer by revenue does not have a single physical store at the core of its business identity. In previous years, when Walmart saw its turnover decline, it would announce spectacular discounts and cover the gap. Amazon combines e-commerce, cloud computing through Amazon Web Services (AWS), advertising revenue, and subscription services into a self-reinforcing and self-expanding ecosystem. Jeff Bezos once said he was building a “flywheel,” a wheel that accelerates the faster it spins. In 2025, that wheel reached maximum speed. Walmart, with its vast network of physical stores, high operating costs, and limited digital penetration, remained in second place. It began investing in e-commerce with the acquisition of Flipkart, but the core of its operations remains the physical store.