Hello, so we have said the obvious since the first day of this crisis. That yes, it is relatively easy to disarm even gradually an isolated Iran when you possess the enormous physical and technological superiority that the Americans and the entire NATO have. But unfortunately, the question is what will happen afterwards in a Middle Eastern country with a theocratic regime that has been rooted for half a century. For the moment, no matter how informed you are and no matter how much you want to read in all the media of the world, you can find scenarios and assumptions, but that’s as far as it goes. No one seems to know what is going to happen in Iran and how the flare-up in the Middle East will affect economies and markets. In fact, the picture is so blurry that yesterday my source (M.M.) was telling me that “it is more likely that the markets will dictate what Trump will do in Iran and how far he will take it, rather than the actions of the Americans influencing the markets.” In other words, if oil and stock markets continue to shake for weeks, Trump might even… leave it halfway and let things fall where they may. Should I add “God help us” as well?

Tourism?
As you understand, a potentially prolonged and messy war scenario cannot fail to affect tourism in the wider region. The first reading was that Turkey or perhaps Cyprus would certainly pay the price, but… a bit further down we cannot help but include Greece in the equation as well. Of course it is still early and it is not yet time for redesigning plans; there is time and experience on all sides and, naturally, tourism stakeholders are used to… last-minute developments.

Mitsotakis
Now, on strictly Greek matters—our own—you saw yesterday the polls by Opinion (Action 24) and Alco (Alpha); we also told you about them (since yesterday morning). New Democracy is up by 1.5% to 2.5% due to the crisis and, I think, clearly also due to the stance of the Greek government. The image projected by the prime minister together with Macron in Cyprus and Christodoulides, but also later on the frigate “Kimon,” whether substantively or even communicatively, was strong. Today, according to Opinion Poll, 56% see a third term for Mitsotakis. What matters is the feeling of the public at this phase we are in—but only that. Because until the elections, time and events can change everything. People keep asking again and again, “But isn’t Mitsotakis thinking about going to elections?” What do you say—everyone else is thinking about it except him, regardless of whether he will actually decide it.

The strengthening of ASPIDES
It is not at all accidental that Macron insists on strengthening the ASPIDES operation in the Red Sea with an aircraft carrier, frigates and helicopters, as he wants to take a leadership initiative regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which, as long as it remains closed, leaves global shipping struggling. He shared the idea with Mitsotakis already last week and the prime minister is positive, but the operational data still remain somewhat unclear. I understand that at the Maximos Mansion and the Pentagon there are certain reservations about the prospect of a wider dispersion of Greek forces, especially since the operational conditions in the region are changing. They clarify that strengthening ASPIDES—which has a clearly defined mission centered on the Red Sea—is one thing, and the Strait of Hormuz is another, where it is difficult to deploy a convoy.

Nuclear energy
In any case, Greek-French cooperation is close and this is also evident from Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s presence today in Paris for the summit convened by Macron on nuclear energy. The issue is major for Greece, with Mitsotakis having broken the “nuclear” taboo some time ago, repeatedly saying that Greece is betting on diversifying its energy mix. Note: nuclear energy, not a nuclear umbrella for defense coverage.

The meeting on the economy
Returning yesterday from Cyprus, Mitsotakis did not go home; instead he called ministers to the Maximos Mansion to examine measures that can be taken immediately for the economy, but also what can be done later on. From Brussels, Deputy Finance Minister Thanos Petralias connected in, as he was there for the Eurogroup, while Hatzidakis, Theodorikakos and Papastavrou went to the Maximos Mansion. I should say that the same group had held a similar discussion last Thursday as well. The story with the passes (fuel pass, market pass) is not in play right now, unlike a series of measures to limit profiteering.

Finance ministers in open communication
Based on what I learn from Brussels, European finance ministers have started talking among themselves, exchanging measures that they may take at the level of member states to deal with rising prices if the crisis in the Middle East escalates. As discussions on European initiatives intensify, the responsible officials are in open communication with each other, with Pierrakakis participating actively but also acting as a recipient of the relevant proposals. Naturally, everything is expected to become clearer next week at the summit of European leaders, where Mitsotakis is expected to have at his side the Greek finance minister and president of the Eurogroup.

The conference on fake news
Pavlos Marinakis, besides being the government spokesman, is also active on press-related matters. Thus, after the regulations concerning the media sector and the two bills that were accepted by all the journalists’ unions, two more bills are coming regarding regional TV channels and radio stations. Also starting today at the Intercontinental hotel there will be a large conference on combating disinformation and fake news, the Alitheia Forum, opening a dialogue that concerns everyone—media outlets, journalists and above all citizens—where representatives of the press, distinguished professors from within and outside Greece, and top politicians will put the issue of the disinformation crisis on the table. Tomorrow K.M. will also be present there.

PASOK, expansion and acting
In principle, no one can disagree with the expansion that parties attempt—especially when organizing their electoral lists. PASOK did it in the past, in the good years, even incorporating into its ballots heavyweight names from New Democracy and from the left (see Manos, Andrianopoulos, Maria Damanaki, Androulakis—Mimis). Today it is making its effort in stages. Yesterday it presented the second list, in which one can clearly see the anxiety to “snatch” figures from the prime-ministerial period of Alexis Tsipras. After Giannis Panousis (minister of Citizen Protection under Tsipras) it also presented another former rector on the Expansion Committee: Theodosios Pelegrinis, who joined Tsipras’s camp early, became a non-parliamentary deputy minister of Education after the second elections of 2015, and handed over duties a year later to the next one, along with his then minister Nikos Filis. The 78-year-old Pelegrinis hardly swept the vote as a candidate for the European Parliament in 2019, but later waved goodbye to SYRIZA in 2023 when he left the Koumoundourou party. He had a brief passage through New Left and a few days ago turned toward PASOK. You wouldn’t call him a figure of renewal, nor of course the well-known composer Christos Nikolopoulos—another of PASOK’s “expanders,” popular in PASOK circles for decades. At this point I should note that the rector-turned-SYRIZA deputy minister Pelegrinis has also excelled as an actor. According to the theatrical script, the former rector plays Kostas Andreou, a television star who is attacked from all sides and suffocates in a collapsing marriage with Natalia Dragoumi. His consolation is a paid lover played by Lena Papaligoura, daughter of the late former New Democracy minister. And I’ll close the PASOK section: make way for the youth—Verlekis 77 years old, Pelegrinis 78 years old, Nikolopoulos 78 years old.

Unification of ATHEX–Euronext in 2027
The unification of the Athens Stock Exchange with the Euronext platform at the trading level is set for 2027. As the CEO of ATHEX, Yiannos Kontopoulos, stated to newmoney.gr, the integration of the Greek market into the common trading system of the European platform will be completed then, which practically means that transactions will move to Euronext’s unified environment. Full integration, however, will require more time. The second and more complex stage concerns the so-called post-trading—that is, the clearing and securities depository procedures—which is estimated to be completed toward the end of 2029. The delay does not concern only the Greek market but is connected with the different legal and institutional structures that apply in each European country, as well as with the fact that depositories operate under different models that must be aligned within a common framework. In the meantime, the main weight for ATHEX now falls on the process of integration into the Euronext system so that the transition can happen as smoothly as possible and without losing the capabilities that the Greek market currently has.

They seek an increase in private investors in the Athens Stock Exchange
From the side of listed companies, the real “level up” is estimated to start becoming noticeable toward the end of 2027, when the connection to Euronext’s unified order book—an ecosystem with a capitalization of about €6.7 trillion and daily turnover that can reach €13–14 billion—will begin to translate into greater liquidity and market depth for Greek stocks. However, as the CEO of ATHEX notes, joining Euronext is not in itself a guarantee of success. The integration mainly provides greater opportunities for the Greek market to be “heard” internationally; whether they will be utilized will depend on how much the market ecosystem itself mobilizes. In this context, one of the key bets of the coming period is also the return of the retail investor base. Strengthening the presence of private investors is considered a critical prerequisite to make use of the greater exposure that Euronext will provide, something that also involves simpler procedures for opening investment accounts as well as new investment incentives. In any case, the first benefits for Greek companies will start to appear already this year. Through the Euronext network, they will have access to European investment initiatives and conferences, such as the pan-European Euronext Sustainability Week, which will be hosted in Athens in September, as well as investment days for small- and mid-cap companies. After all, as noted, for the international market most Greek listed companies are considered mid-caps, something that opens a new field for their promotion to a broader European investment base.

Today the examination of the Ellinikon files
The coastal front within the area of the former Ellinikon airport is in the spotlight: Both the owners of the plots on the coastal front where the villas will be built and LAMDA itself, which is “running” the works on the beach and the surrounding promenades, have now accelerated efforts to obtain the necessary permits. In this context, the relevant files have been submitted to the competent services of the Ministry of Culture, which through the Central Archaeological Council is called upon to grant (or reject) the related approvals. Today the examination of the files has been scheduled, initially for the final study of landscape architecture, public spaces, a section of the central pedestrian walkway, the beach and the seafront zone along the coastal front within the Metropolitan Pole. In addition, files have been submitted with the final studies for approvals concerning three of the plots, which include two two-storey detached houses and one three-storey house, with swimming pools, planted roofs, underground parking, landscaping of the surrounding area, as well as guardhouses in two of the three. The planners are also requesting approval for the cutting, on the three plots respectively, of 11, 9 and 10 trees.

The aluminum rally gave “wings” to Metlen
The impressive reaction of Metlen was one of the main reference points during yesterday’s session of the Athens Stock Exchange. The share managed to absorb the initial pressures and complete the day with a strong “jump” of 3.14%, closing at €35.46. This movement gains particular significance considering the course it had followed earlier, as it had fallen below €33 before buyers’ reflexes were activated. The main catalyst behind the rebound is none other than the international rally in aluminum prices. Metlen, as one of the most vertically integrated and low-cost producers in Europe, is in the privileged position of turning the rise in commodities into an immediate strengthening of its profitability. The market rushed to price in the fact that every dollar increase in the price of aluminum affects the operating profits (EBITDA) of its metallurgy sector exponentially, creating a strong “barrier” against broader geopolitical turbulence. At the same time, the stock’s behavior confirms its position as one of the most resilient and outward-looking blue chips on the Athens Stock Exchange. According to analysts, the management’s ability to combine a strong presence in metals with strategic expansion in renewables and energy offers investors a unique “natural hedge.” Moreover, the return above €35, after testing the day’s lows, sends a clear message about the long-term value of the group.

The new CEO of TERNA Energy
Yesterday we had the official announcement of the departure of Aristotelis Chantavas from the position of CEO of Principia, a company whose shareholders include Enel SpA and funds managed by Macquarie Asset Management. Formally his term ends on March 27 and according to information, either before or more likely after that date, it is expected to be announced that he will take on the role of CEO at TERNA Energy, which is controlled by Masdar, the state energy company of the UAE. The Arabs want TERNA Energy to play a decisive role in developing Masdar’s portfolio in Europe, within the framework of the company’s strategic goal of 100 GW of global installed capacity by 2030.

Allwyn–Novibet: the next day
The cancellation of the Allwyn–Novibet deal has not left the two companies idle. At Novibet there is said to be movement, as the interest of such a large international group as Allwyn functioned as “advertising” for the game-tech company, which appears to have entered the radar of investors since it possesses proprietary and, above all, reliable technology. Among other things, during the 14 months that passed between the initial agreement with Allwyn, its figures and market shares strengthened, and it seems that this was also one of the reasons why the Competition Commission “braked” the deal in order to safeguard the balance in the market. In any case, 2025 closed for Novibet with an increase of more than 30% in gross gaming revenue (GGR) across all the markets in which it operates, a trend that continues in the first months of 2026. On the other hand, at Allwyn analysts and investors are awaiting the announcement of the financial results for 2025, expected within the month, while on the front of the merger with OPAP the process is progressing smoothly and completion of the transaction is expected before the end of the first half of the year.

Strategic partnerships ahead for DIMAND
More news regarding strategic partnerships with domestic or foreign institutional investors should be expected soon from DIMAND, which yesterday announced its results for 2025, recording positive operating profitability at €39 million and pre-tax results after minority rights of about €41 million, up from about €40 million in the 2024 fiscal year. Developments should be expected in this direction both for the €410 million project—the estimated size of the investment at Kambas in Pallini—as well as the other project in Gournes in Crete, which is currently at the stage of preparing and maturing key studies.

ERETVO and Serifos
The main shareholders of the technical company ERETVO are also turning their attention to tourism real estate, as appears from a new company established at the end of January. It is “Serifos Development S.A.,” headquartered at the ERETVO offices on Filemonos Street in Athens, whose main activity is holiday accommodations and, beyond that, the purchase, sale, leasing, renting and exploitation of all kinds of real estate—urban and rural properties, plots, horizontal properties, residences, shops, offices, shopping centers, hotel facilities, building complexes, etc.—in Greece and abroad. The initial share capital is €25,000, which was paid by ERETVO, while Giorgos Romosios (head of the technical group) assumed the roles of Chairman and CEO, Nikolaos Romosios became Vice-Chairman, and the members of the Board of Directors are Konstantinos Kastanas, Anastasia Romosiou and Alexandros Romosios.

Paliou–Pappas: the backstage of the alliance on Wall Street
Four days after the news became public about the upgraded acquisition proposal for Genco Shipping & Trading Limited by Diana Shipping Inc., the market is beginning to read between the numbers, and the backstage may be more interesting than the deal itself. The decision of Semiramis Paliou to raise the offer to $23.50 per share, with a 31% premium, is not simply an aggressive takeover move. By Wall Street standards it resembles more a classic consolidation strategy in a cyclical sector that is preparing for the next upward cycle. Investors who know the dry bulk cycles understand that such moves are not made at the peak but shortly before sentiment begins to change. The real “key,” however, is not only in Diana itself. It lies in the collaboration with Petros Pappas of Star Bulk Carriers Corp. The plan for Star Bulk to absorb 16 Genco ships valued at about $470.5 million functions as a financial mechanism to decompress Diana’s balance sheet after the acquisition. In other words, Diana buys the corporate platform and Star Bulk “cleans up” part of the fleet, creating a structure where everyone wins. On Wall Street this would be described as a structured strategic takeover: Diana gains scale and fleet, Star Bulk selects the assets it wants, and Genco shareholders receive a significant premium. Even more interesting is the banking syndicate behind the agreement. The participation of banks such as BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered with fully committed financing of $1.433 billion shows that the deal has passed strict due diligence. In market language this means that transaction risk is considered limited and execution likely to be quick. The political-business interest, however, lies elsewhere. This move shows a new informal alliance of Greek shipping forces on Wall Street, in a sector where Greek shipowners dominate operationally but rarely appear so coordinated at the level of stock-market moves. It is probably the beginning of a new phase of consolidation in the dry bulk sector, where Greek companies listed in New York will seek greater scale before the next upward cycle in freight rates begins. And those who follow the shipping market know well that when such moves appear before the cycle turns, it usually means that someone has already seen further ahead than the rest.

Greek Shipping on Washington’s Table
The four-day presence of Kostis Fragoulis in Washington, just 24 hours before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, clearly had greater significance than a routine cycle of institutional meetings. At a time when shipping is returning to the center of geopolitical and energy balances, the presence of the first non-American president of the International Propeller Club and president of the Propeller Club Port of Piraeus in the U.S. capital also served as an indication that the center of gravity of the discussion is shifting toward the international—and to a large extent Greek—shipping world. The contacts with institutions such as the Federal Maritime Commission, MARAD, the U.S. Coast Guard, and leading organizations of the American maritime industry were not merely ceremonial. They highlighted a reality that has been quietly forming for years. Greek-owned shipping remains a critical link for the security of maritime transport, energy flows, and the supply chain of the Western world. It is no coincidence that Fragoulis’ presence coincided with the event for the agreement between Onex Shipyards and Technologies and Hanwha Power Systems, a development that sheds light on the new geoeconomic triangular relationship between the United States, Greece, and South Korea in the shipbuilding and energy sectors. In this context, the Greek side appears not simply as a traditional maritime power, but as a potential hub of industrial and energy cooperation. The political message of the visit was equally clear. With Greek-American relations in a period of strong strategic convergence, shipping is once again emerging as one of the most stable and substantial pillars of cooperation. And the fact that the head of a historically American organization now comes from Greece is not merely symbolic; it reflects the real balance of power on the global maritime map.

The Critical Role of the Corinth Canal Ahead of the Tourist Season
Amid geopolitical developments and with the future of maritime tourism for 2026 remaining uncertain, the Ministry of Infrastructure announced that the reopening of the Corinth Canal is scheduled for July 1. This delay raises questions, as the passage of vessels to and from the Ionian Sea during the summer period plays a critical role in the functioning of the tourism sector. As Tzina Polemi, President of the Hellenic Professional Yacht Owners Association (HCPY), points out, the delay in reopening the canal ahead of the summer season leaves the plans of professionals and businesses unresolved. The passage of vessels should begin in a timely manner, as in previous seasons, at least on May 1, in order to ensure the smooth operation of maritime tourism. Professionals in the sector are appealing to the Ministry of Infrastructure and the relevant authorities to reconsider the decision so that appropriate conditions can be created for the tourism sector and the professionals working in it.

Proposals for Economic Diplomacy
ELIAMEP published a highly interesting diagnostic map of Greek economic diplomacy. It highlights major mistakes and proposes changes. The authors (Blavoukos, Politis, Lamprou, Pagoni) identify four major dysfunctions in the way our economic diplomacy is exercised. First of all, they point out the absence of a holistic strategy. There are many bodies (the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Enterprise Greece, Export Credit Greece, the Ministry of Development, the Ministry of Finance, etc.), but their coordination resembles an orchestra without a conductor. Next comes bureaucracy. Foreign investors interested in our country face labyrinthine procedures that increase costs and discourage interest. The available resources are minimal. There are only 172 active officers for Economic and Commercial Affairs (OEC) for 61 offices around the world. Finally, ELIAMEP argues that economic diplomacy is underestimated within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself. OEC officers are considered second-class diplomats. The proposals move along three axes:

• Structural level: strengthening Enterprise Greece and reforming the training of OEC officers with joint programs with the Diplomatic Corps.
• Operational level: institutionalizing formal dialogue with businesses and chambers of commerce and providing customized support depending on the size of each exporting company.
• Strategic level: the major objective is a National Economic Diplomacy Strategy with a horizon beyond 2030, incorporating the geoeconomic dimension.

Finally, there is a proposal for the creation of a European Export Credit Agency, taking advantage of the Greek Presidency of the Council of the EU in 2027.

Apple Started a Price War to Eliminate Competition
Apple has decided to deploy its heavy weapons in the battle for market share. It announced the cheapest laptops and smartphones of the last 10 years. Both cost under $600. Tim Cook had no difficulty admitting that Apple will pay dearly for the “significant increase in memory purchase prices” starting this quarter. However, he decided to absorb the cost instead of passing it on to consumers. The obvious target of this generosity is Chinese manufacturers of Android devices that currently dominate the segment of the market that does not pay a fortune for a phone or a laptop. Apple’s competitors face exactly the same price increases in chips, which Apple announced it will absorb because it has the capacity to do so thanks to its massive balance sheet. The competitors will not be able to absorb the increased memory cost. IDC (International Data Corporation), a long-standing and reliable American market research and consulting firm specializing in technology, estimates that cheaper Android devices may soon become unprofitable to produce. Apple’s move has precedent. The iPhone 16e last year captured an 11% share of U.S. iPhone sales at its launch—double the share of its predecessor. The new 17e starts with double the storage capacity (256GB). Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., one of the most respected firms on Wall Street in sales analysis, estimates that the manufacturing cost of the iPhone 18 Pro Max could rise by +25%. Apple will recover this cost by selling its expensive models, while using the cheaper ones as a lure to attract the new generation.

Now Everyone Is Talking About Interest Rate Increases—Not Cuts
Financial derivatives dealing with interest rates of major currencies—the well-known Interest Rate Swaps and OIS (Overnight Index Swap) contracts, which “price in” the future decisions of central banks—have begun to incorporate interest rate increases. Not decreases. Increases. Central bankers appear determined not to repeat the mistake of 2021. At that time, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England insisted for months that inflation was “transitory,” temporary, the result of supply chain problems due to COVID. Reality proved them dramatically wrong. What followed was the most aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes in decades, and their credibility suffered a severe blow. Now we have the “single-mandate” central banks, namely the ECB and the Bank of England, which according to their statutes have one and only objective: price stability. By contrast, the American Fed, besides price stability, must also protect full employment. In Overnight Index Swaps, there are two counterparties exchanging interest payments for a specific period. One pays a fixed interest rate; the other pays a floating rate linked to the central bank’s overnight rate. Therefore, in OIS contracts, the fixed rate that is “agreed upon” reflects what the market expects the central bank to do in the future. For example, if the 6-month OIS for the ECB prices an interest rate 0.25% higher than today’s, the market believes the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points within the next six months. This is exactly what is happening today regarding the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

The Six Interventions of the G7 in the Oil Market
Five times in the last 50 years, the seven largest (and strongest?) economies of the planet had to intervene to prevent a global economic shock from an oil shortage. Five times in the past they had to release reserves from the International Energy Agency. The IEA is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1974 after the oil crisis, headquartered in Paris. Every time the world was in a state of energy emergency, it released its reserves. Yesterday, the emergency teleconference of the G7 Finance Ministers did not reach a specific decision but “put the gun on the table,” implying that a sixth release is being prepared—the largest of all previous ones: 350 million barrels of oil. In 2022, the corresponding release after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amounted to 180 million barrels and was considered a record.

• During the First Gulf War in 1991: 75 million barrels
• After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005: 60 million barrels
• During the Libya crisis in 2011: another 60 million barrels

Each time, the “rule” was that the market should not feel panic. Yesterday, panic had already spread across the planet even before the ministers convened. The reserves of the International Energy Agency (IEA) reach 1.24 billion barrels. In addition, there are about 600 million barrels of industrial reserves—enough to cover roughly one month of global demand. Three countries from the G7, including the United States, have already expressed support for a release of 25–30% of their total reserves.