“Our compass for navigating the uncharted waters opening up before us is political stability, a comparative advantage that we must preserve so that the country’s course is not threatened amid geopolitical and economic storms, in the direction of collective progress and individual prosperity.” With this exclusive statement to Proto Thema, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sets out the outline of his strategy amid geopolitical upheaval, but also one year before the national elections, which, as he makes clear in every tone, will take place at their time, in 2027.

The Prime Minister’s full statement

“In a period of deep regional turmoil, Greece is emerging as a pillar of stability and a force for peace. Guided by the principle that this war must end as soon as possible, we remain vigilant, protecting national and European interests with confidence and pride.

The rapid deployment of our Armed Forces, with the frigates and F-16s shielding Cyprus, was both a substantive and symbolic act of national duty. This decisive action acted as a catalyst for a broader European presence that sends a clear message in all directions: Cyprus will never be alone. The conflict in the Middle East, of course, affects every economy internationally. It drives up oil and natural gas prices and creates indirect inflationary pressures that hit every household. Since no country can remain immune to these trends, we are preparing for every contingency. With honesty, without alarmism.

In this direction, moreover, we announced targeted measures centered on a cap on profit margins, on the one hand in liquid fuels, both wholesale and retail, and on the other hand in 61 product categories on supermarket shelves. Both measures remain in force until the end of June. In this way, we are raising a shield against any possible profiteering.

Our compass for navigating the uncharted waters opening up before us is political stability. A comparative advantage that we must preserve so that the country’s course is not threatened amid geopolitical and economic storms, in the direction of collective progress and individual prosperity.”

“A steady hand”
Recognizing citizens’ need for a “steady hand” at the helm of the country in a period of intense turbulence, and while the opposition presents an image of fragmentation and introversion, Mr. Mitsotakis addresses citizens by making it clear that New Democracy is the only party presenting a convincing plan for governing the country. A plan being tested in the field.

Through Proto Thema today as well, the Prime Minister sends the message that Greece is emerging as a guarantor of geopolitical security in the region, following rapid moves to fortify Cyprus, the islands, and neighboring Bulgaria, which, notably, is interested in acquiring 150 portable Greek-made “Kentavros” anti-drone systems. In practice, Mr. Mitsotakis is also keeping his eyes on the possible economic consequences of a prolonged crisis and disruption in energy prices, something that will also be put on the table at the EU leaders’ summit to be held next Thursday (March 19) in Brussels.

In the wake of his joint appearance with French President Emmanuel Macron in Cyprus last week, Mr. Mitsotakis points out to his interlocutors that in recent days the EU’s collective defense clause was activated in practice, without this needing to happen officially. At the same time, Greece also moved to strengthen its own defenses, as shown by the deployment of a Patriot system on Karpathos and the redeployment of F-16s to Lemnos. In this light, it appears that Ankara has also received the message, judging by its nervous reactions and its renewed emphasis on the issue of demilitarization of the islands.

National and European response
While the government appears to have successfully passed the crash test of rapidly mobilizing the Armed Forces, the major challenge is the economic consequences of a war whose duration no one knows. It is only a matter of time before pressures on international markets pass more intensely into the Greek market as well, which is demonstrably vulnerable. Through Proto Thema, Mr. Mitsotakis warns that no country can remain immune to the international situation. That is why the government, relatively quickly compared with other EU states, rushed to take measures by announcing the imposition of a cap on profit margins in the liquid fuels market and on supermarket shelves.

“Since no country can remain immune to these trends, we are preparing for every contingency. With honesty, without alarmism. In this direction, moreover, we announced targeted measures centered on a cap on profit margins, on the one hand in liquid fuels, both wholesale and retail, and on the other hand in 61 product categories on supermarket shelves. Both measures remain in force until the end of June. In this way, we are raising a shield against any possible profiteering,” the Prime Minister stresses to Proto Thema. The announcements on the cap were preceded by a broad meeting last Monday afternoon at the Maximos Mansion, immediately after Mr. Mitsotakis returned from Cyprus. The main presentation was made by Development Minister Takis Theodorikakos, in cooperation with Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou. The basic rationale behind the intervention was that the government had to send an immediate and clear message against any moves toward profiteering on the ground, while it is a given that it is also maintaining a second line of defense with fiscal reserves in the event the crisis is prolonged.

It is precisely the duration of the volatile situation, according to Eurogroup President and Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis, that will determine which measures from the 2022 energy-crisis toolbox will be deployed. Speaking at the Greece Talks conference of travel.gr and protothema.gr, held the day before yesterday, Friday, in Heraklion, Crete, Mr. Pierrakakis made clear that the government will intervene if it is found that the problem is deep and lasting, and he sent the message that no household will be left alone. Under the microscope is the cost of energy, since any combined high oil price above $100 and increased natural gas prices, which directly affect the cost of electricity generation, will mean red alert both in Athens and in Europe. Mr. Pierrakakis, who will be with Mr. Mitsotakis at Thursday’s summit, has already sent, on behalf of the Eurogroup, a relevant recommendation letter to the EU leaders, but obviously at this level the discussion is starting from scratch. Naturally, the tool of activating the flexibility framework regarding European fiscal rules — which have tightened in the years after the coronavirus crisis and the energy crisis — is also on the table, though the timing of any decision is considered critical.

The Europeans’ problem is that, on the one hand, they do not appear to have a serious line of information about the White House’s thinking, and on the other, they understand that a war may begin unilaterally, but it does not end that way. Consequently, Iran will continue to exert pressure by mining the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Institutional stance
In this environment, Mr. Mitsotakis views with satisfaction the polls (Alco, Pulse, Interview, Opinion Poll), which point to a landscape of New Democracy’s political dominance, with the party achieving its best voting-intention estimates since the period of the European elections. And while some within the party may think that this favorable condition could easily be disrupted, thus opening a window for an early return to the ballot box, Mr. Mitsotakis strongly disagrees. Those who speak with him know this privately as well, since for some time now the prime minister has been urging patience and believes that exhausting the full political term will work to New Democracy’s benefit, as it will have room to present its record more substantively and, on that basis, be compared with the other political forces.

Additionally, in an environment that requires political stability, Mr. Mitsotakis signals that it would be suicidal to subject the country to an adventure, with the most likely scenario being double elections. “If our main argument today is that political stability is a comparative advantage for the country, how could I lead the country into early elections in the coming months, risking precisely that argument, which really does show citizens that this government can quickly make decisions and act for the benefit of Greek citizens?” the Prime Minister wondered (iefimerida), making clear that he categorically rejects related suggestions for early elections. The same applies to the rejection of reshuffle scenarios, of which the prime minister was never an ardent supporter from the outset, considering the “blue” bench and also the fact that a reshuffle creates discontent at a critical political stage.

Analysis of the polls
It is nevertheless a fact that the climate within New Democracy has improved significantly, together with the weakening momentum of the emerging parties reflected in the polls. At the Maximos Mansion, they are making a careful reading of all the published surveys, comparing them with their own rolling polls. The general conclusion is that citizens who voted for New Democracy in 2023 and had shifted into the undecided pool are rallying again. New Democracy is also recording small inflows from the right, mainly from Hellenic Solution and Voice of Reason, while also connecting with a significant centrist PASOK audience that appears troubled by internal party turbulence and does not personally trust Mr. Nikos Androulakis. The surveys also record a gradual weakening in the influence of Ms. Maria Karystianou, while the party of Mr. Alexis Tsipras is not expected to occupy the center ground, but rather to reshuffle the broader center-left landscape. Based on the data so far, the scenario of a party under Mr. Antonis Samaras seems distant, while he himself is not moving organizationally with any intensity, despite his sharp public interventions.

According to the Maximos analysis, given these conditions, the scenario of an outright majority in the second ballot is not considered science fiction, despite the obvious difficulties. In any case, if the government manages to maintain momentum and handle the economic challenges ahead, Mr. Mitsotakis will have room to pose even sharper political dilemmas, which will be better received by society.