The brokerage firm Pantelakis Securities has upgraded its price targets and earnings estimates for Motor Oil and HelleniQ Energy.

The new price target for Motor Oil is set at €51.20, while for HelleniQ Energy it is €12.50 per share.

The refining market continues to face tight conditions due to low inventories and resilient demand for diesel and aviation fuels in Europe.

Motor Oil stands out due to the high complexity of its refinery and its ability to flexibly adjust the crude oil mix it processes.

Analysts estimate that the increased profitability of Greek refiners reflects a structural shift in the underlying fundamentals of the oil market.

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Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East may have eased after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however the refining market continues to operate under tight conditions, creating favorable prospects for Greek refineries. In this environment, Pantelakis Securities maintains a positive stance on both Motor Oil and HelleniQ Energy, while upgrading their price targets and earnings forecasts.

The brokerage maintains an overweight recommendation for both stocks, with Motor Oil remaining its top pick. The new price target for Motor Oil rises to €51.20 from €40 previously, offering an upside potential of about 33% from current levels, while for HelleniQ Energy the target increases to €12.50 from €10, implying around 13% upside.

Refining margins remain strong

According to Pantelakis, the temporary disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with attacks on Russian refining facilities, led to a sharp increase in refining margins for diesel and jet fuel. Although the crisis has eased, inventories remain at particularly low levels and the market continues to show significant tightness.

The analysis notes that the European market continues to face a shortage of middle distillates, as alternative crude grades cannot fully replace Middle Eastern medium and heavy crudes, which yield higher volumes of diesel and jet fuel. At the same time, demand remains resilient across aviation, road transport, and industry.

Earnings forecasts upgraded

Under these conditions, Pantelakis raises its refining margin forecasts for 2026–2027.

For HelleniQ Energy, the 2026 refining margin is revised to $17.4 per barrel, up 16%, while for 2027 it rises to $15.2.

For Motor Oil, the 2026 estimate increases to $16.7 per barrel, while the 2027 forecast remains at $14.8, as the company had already incorporated much of the positive developments into previous guidance.

These upgrades lead to significantly higher EBITDA estimates. Pantelakis projects 2026 EBITDA of €1.34 billion for HelleniQ Energy and over €1.4 billion for Motor Oil, while even after margin normalisation, operating profitability for both groups is expected to remain close to €1.1–1.3 billion over 2027–2028.

Why Motor Oil stands out

Pantelakis considers Motor Oil to have the strongest competitive advantages in the European sector. Its refinery, with a Nelson complexity index of 12.6, is among the most sophisticated in Europe, allowing the company to quickly adjust its crude slate.

During the crisis, the company significantly reduced its dependence on Iraqi crude, shifting supply toward countries such as Libya, Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. According to Pantelakis, this strategy delivered strong results and is expected to become a permanent feature of the company’s procurement policy.

HelleniQ Energy, on the other hand, entered the crisis with an already diversified supply portfolio and limited reliance on Iraqi crude, which also allowed it to benefit from high international product prices.

Pantelakis concludes that concerns about windfall taxation have currently eased, while the new profitability base of Greek refiners is not a cyclical phenomenon but reflects a more permanent shift in market fundamentals, supporting continued positive sector prospects.