Hello, yesterday I asked my source (M.M.) whether there is any truth to a piece of information claiming that the government has gained 4 points—not 2—since the beginning of the war in the Middle East. The answer I got was: “Polling companies are right to be cautious in their weighting because these are unusual times, due to extraordinary events. It may benefit us, but we don’t know whether—or for how long—things will remain this way.” Now, because I know both the source that initially gave me the information and M.M.’s source, I believe that the polls may indeed be showing such a strong rise for Mitsotakis. It is also true, however, that there are no signs of this rise being stable, simply because it is driven by an extraordinary event. Unless, of course, the event isn’t so “extraordinary” and the war lasts for months. I repeat that Mitsotakis’ style and way of thinking are not the kind that would lead the country to elections in this way. Sometimes, however, events themselves may push you in that direction.

The EPP telco and Hormuz
Let’s move to current affairs. While Gerapetritis was in Brussels for the EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting, with the Strait of Hormuz as the main topic, Mitsotakis participated in a teleconference of the EPP with leaders of the European center-right ahead of Thursday’s summit. All the top figures took part—VDL, Merz, Metsola, and others—and my source described a general reluctance among Europeans to support the U.S. request for a naval escort operation for ships in Hormuz. “The U.S. didn’t consult us about the war, but at a critical moment they ask for our help and meaningful involvement,” a European source told the column, reflecting the mood of the call. On Thursday, EPP leaders will gather ahead of the EU summit, where the prospect of European measures against rising prices due to global instability will also be discussed.

Mitsotakis and Schinas in Brussels
Since we’re on European matters, let me add that K.M. will be in Brussels from Wednesday, as the EPP celebrates its 50th anniversary. Alongside Tasos Chatzivasileiou, who regularly accompanies him, Mitsotakis will also bring a European figure of his own choosing, as each leader does. I’m told he chose former European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas, which may signal something about Schinas’ potential future involvement in Greek politics.

OPEKEPE loading
As for other matters, a serious source with direct knowledge (not M.M.) tells me that a new OPEKEPE case file is likely to reach Parliament within March. It has reportedly been sent from Athens to Luxembourg, where it is now handled by Kovési’s replacement, the German Andres Ritter. A formal review will take place there before the file returns to Athens for further steps and submission to Parliament. The same source says a more careful criminal assessment has been carried out, and the file includes around ten MPs—mostly from New Democracy—who are alleged to have requested actions that may carry criminal implications for some of them. So far, there is no indication of ministerial involvement during the exercise of duties, but the MPs named are not insignificant. If confirmed, will immunity-lifting procedures follow? It seems no decisions have been made yet.

Birol and Pierr (1)
Pierr is in Paris, where yesterday he met with his French counterpart and then spoke at the Euronext conference. Today’s schedule is also interesting, as I hear he has a morning meeting with Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, focusing on oil reserves and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Boujnah on Pierr (2)
The reception given to Kyriakos Pierrakakis at the Euronext conference in Paris by Stéphane Boujnah was anything but formal. The head of the exchange group humorously noted the paradox of someone being a successor to both Varoufakis and Dijsselbloem. He then praised the Greek finance minister’s effectiveness, which he had witnessed firsthand during discussions on the acquisition of the Athens Stock Exchange. In fact, he openly described the Eurogroup president as “one of the best living politicians in Europe.” Pierrakakis, who spoke immediately afterward, returned the compliments, highlighting the excellent communication between the Greek government and Euronext. Picking up on Boujnah’s phrase “living,” the minister recalled the film La Haine by Mathieu Kassovitz, where the protagonist falling from a skyscraper says, “So far, so good.” As Pierrakakis added, “the goal of politicians is not only to be alive, but to remain that way.”

Announcements on the Climate Fund
A package of 25 measures totaling €5.3 billion to support vulnerable households and businesses will be presented this afternoon by Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis, Environment and Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou, and Deputy Finance Minister Nikos Papathanasis. This is a national plan for the Social Climate Fund, developed over recent months, including “Exoikonomo” programs for energy upgrades in homes and small businesses, installation of heat pumps and solar water heaters, construction of housing for vulnerable households, and more. The plan has a strong social impact, benefiting 1.5 million households and 70,000 very small businesses.

Large turnout for the development law
The results of the plan for the productive transformation of the Greek economy and the government’s priorities for boosting industrial and innovation investments were presented yesterday at an event organized by T. Theodorikakos at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Cultural Center. The keynote speaker was Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Many government officials attended, including Deputy PM Kostis Hatzidakis, Labor Minister Niki Kerameus, Digital Governance Minister Dimitris Papastergiou, Nikos Papathanasis, and about 20 New Democracy MPs. There was also strong participation from key figures in Greece’s economic and business community, including Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras and SEV President Spyros Theodoropoulos, among others.

PASOK…we nailed it!
Now, I dismiss the snide remarks that those who will vote for PASOK in national elections also showed up yesterday to vote for the party congress—so say our “enemies.” What I know is that 175,000 people voted for PASOK delegates, and more than half support Nikos. That means around 100,000 citizens believe in his leadership (enough to fill Wembley!). The number matches his poll suitability for prime minister—around 6%. Some critics say results were delayed. So what? Haven’t you heard of “PASOK time”? Reasons include limited digital connectivity at polling stations and long queues due to verification delays, leading many committees to revert to manual processes.

Play and win…
And speaking of small change, a scene from a polling station in southern Athens: a woman, after waiting in line, paid €2 to register as a member—but was mistakenly given €4 back. “What are you doing? I gave two and you give me four—and you want to govern?” she said, leaving them speechless. She had joined just to vote for a relative running as a delegate. Things like this happen in PASOK.

Haris and Pavlos—take note
One of my PASOK sources—usually critical of Doukas—admitted that the mayor Haris performed unexpectedly well, especially in Attica, electing more delegates than expected. The question is whether he actually came first in Athens, as his supporters claim, or if Pavlos did, as others insist. Are we heading for a Haris–Pavlos showdown in parliamentary elections, or a tactical alliance at the congress?

The appointed delegates loom
Let’s say Androulakis didn’t reach the 60% of delegates his team hoped for, but about 55%. Not bad. This, I’m told, means he can reach whatever percentage he wants, since 1,400 appointed delegates will be added to the 4,000 elected ones—and most of those appointed are loyal to him.

Pellegrino premiere
Just when they were hoping the issue with Pellegrini’s theatrical “wear, wear, wear” would fade away so they might see some “light, light, light”—as the… executioner of the Diamantopoulou university law might say—along comes the expansion again, back to the forefront. So today, around noon, the Expansion Group led by Skandalidis holds its premiere meeting at the Caravel Hotel under President Androulakis. Korakakis and Patentalis left early, Pellegrini stayed, and unless he has another academic obligation, he is expected to show up at noon. I don’t see any other… guest star for today on the green expansion runway.

The four-day Frankfurt meeting and the markets
The Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, departs today for Frankfurt to participate in the ECB Governing Council meeting. The interesting part is that while such meetings are usually two days (Wednesday and Thursday), this one will last four days, as central bankers will meet through Friday. Four days at ECB headquarters is unprecedented—not even during the Greek crisis did this happen. The extended version in Frankfurt is due to analysts and ECB officials presenting, aiming to form as clear a picture as possible of where the European economy is heading. Also today, a teleconference of all European ESMA supervisors will take place, with HCMC Chair Vasiliki Lazarakou participating, to discuss the impact of the war and developments in each market.

HCMC to listed companies: Announce war impacts
At the end of last week, all CEOs and CFOs of listed companies received a letter from the Hellenic Capital Market Commission urging them—due to recent developments in Iran and for investor protection and proper market functioning—if they have exposure to the affected countries and expect significant direct or indirect impacts, to disclose information in their 2025 financial statements, especially under “subsequent events.” They are asked to publish data such as the percentage of turnover, purchases, and assets related to 2025, as well as estimates of possible impacts on revenue, results, and financial position, if feasible, along with any other relevant information. If financial statements have already been published, they must issue relevant announcements.

National Bank – Allianz
The latest on the National Bank–Allianz front is as follows: according to sources from the insurance company, there are some issues related to valuations, but they insist these will be resolved. Allianz is also concerned that the operational merger with European Reliance has not progressed as expected. According to National Bank sources, efforts are underway to finalize the deal within March, also considering upcoming bank roadshows in London. So, barring surprises, the time is approaching.

Major restructuring of Cypriot banks
The major restructuring of the banking sector in Cyprus recently is creating conditions for new voluntary exit schemes in Cypriot banks. Such plans are already underway at Eurobank Limited, while similar moves are expected from Alpha Bank and Bank of Cyprus. Significant investments in digitalization are increasing demand for new skill sets and reshaping operations. For Eurobank Limited, departures could reach up to 300 employees. Alpha Bank is planning its own scheme toward the end of the current fiscal year, while Bank of Cyprus is considering targeted smaller programs. Cyprus holds a European record in restructuring, especially in branch closures: branches per 100,000 inhabitants dropped from 137.3 in 2002 to 19.4 in 2024.

Ionios School moves ahead with AVAX
Ionios School’s board recently approved a €355,000 guarantee and a mortgage pre-notation on company property, securing an equivalent claim by AVAX Development arising from a preliminary real estate sale agreement. This concerns a 4.7-acre property in Filothei, where AVAX Development has reached an initial agreement to develop luxury residences.

Capital increase for the skyscraper
STANTA, the company of Stavros Andreiadis, which is developing Thessaloniki’s first skyscraper in partnership with AVAX, increased its share capital by €2 million through new shares, bringing total capital to €42 million. The project αφορά a residential tower of up to 29,800 sq.m. in the Allatini Kerameia area in Nea Elvetia, Thessaloniki, developed via land-for-flats exchange.

Brad Pitt at Four Seasons
Brad Pitt will remain in Greece until the end of the month for filming The Riders, parts of which take place in the country. After Hydra, Chalkida, Kotzia Square, and Nea Makri, filming continued in Lavrio and Menidi, including a demanding scene in a large pool. As for his stay, it remains somewhat secret, but confirmed information says the Hollywood star has rented two suites at the Four Seasons Astir in Vouliagmeni. He usually returns there after two or three days of filming, with one suite reportedly converted into a small studio to review footage with the director and production team.

Yuroukos and Greek shipping concerns
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have once again highlighted the tight link between geopolitics and shipping. George Youroukos, chairman of Global Ship Lease, emphasized that “the safety of our seafarers remains the top priority,” noting pressures on Greek shipping due to developments around Iran. Such tensions increase costs for security, escorts, and fleet adjustments. He also stressed the importance of flexible containerships—smaller or mid-sized vessels that allow adaptation to changing supply chains. Global Ship Lease capitalized on this trend, reporting $766.5 million in revenue in 2025 and $406.9 million in net profit.

Frangou’s move reshaping Navios fleet
The sale of the Copernicus N, the last post-panamax vessel in Navios Maritime Partners’ fleet, marks the end of a small but symbolic chapter for Angeliki Frangou’s company. The vessel, built in 2010 with 93,062 dwt capacity, was the only one of its type among 65 ships. While the sale doesn’t drastically change fleet size, it reflects a clear strategy: moving away from isolated vessel categories toward a more cohesive fleet focused on flexibility and predictable charter cycles. Since mid-2022, the company has sold 49 vessels, raising about $1.16 billion—used for reinvestment or debt reduction. Investors on Wall Street interpret such moves as improving fleet quality and reducing operational risk, valuing strategic consistency over sheer size.

The rescue that brought international distinction to a ship of Haris Vafias
An act of solidarity at sea does not go unnoticed. The Liberian Registry awarded an honorary distinction to the captain and crew of the tanker Magic Wand for rescuing 20 shipwrecked individuals on December 8, 2025, about 37 nautical miles north of the Algerian coast. The incident once again highlighted the value of maritime solidarity and rapid response in dangerous situations at sea. The Magic Wand (oil/chemical tanker, 47,000 MT, built in 2008) is managed by Stealth Maritime Corporation, owned by shipowner Haris Vafias. The Liberian Registry congratulated the captain, officers, and crew for their composure and professionalism during the rescue operation. This distinction is yet another reminder that in shipping, beyond vessels and fleet sizes, people and the values governing life at sea play a decisive role.

MSCI and upgrade
Meetings between MSCI officials and participants in the Greek capital market are nearing completion, with only a few formal contacts remaining. The climate appears positive, as the technical obstacle regarding size and liquidity consistency—requiring at least five companies to meet Developed Market criteria over eight consecutive reviews—has been overcome. Official announcements are expected soon, and according to Goldman Sachs estimates, five stocks will be included in the main MSCI DM index: the four systemic banks and OPAP. Passive inflows are not expected to exceed €450 million. Discussions focused mainly on the “next day,” specifically how to avoid JP Morgan’s concern that Greece’s weighting in the MSCI World index could shrink significantly.

Bylot, announcements and dividend
The market is eagerly awaiting today’s flash estimate for Bylot’s 2025 results (formerly Intralot), the first under its new brand name following the €2.7 billion acquisition of Bally’s International Interactive. Although management had previously committed to distributing 35% of profits as dividends, the deterioration of the international environment—both tax and geopolitical—may lead to a postponement or reduction. This is where market concern is focused. Analysts estimate group revenue above €320 million and EBITDA around €120 million. Attention, however, is mainly on the impact of the tax shock in the UK, after the government raised online casino taxation from 21% to 40%, a move estimated to reduce EBITDA from the UK market by about €95.9 million before mitigation measures. The company has already announced countermeasures worth €50 million, including cuts in rewards (€15m), advertising (€15m), and other expenses (€5m).

American interest in HelleniQ Energy
Everything started after “Black Monday,” with the major sell-off on March 2 that pushed HelleniQ Energy’s stock below €8.50. Two days later, steady buyers emerged, driving the price to €9.69—a nine-year high. According to market sources, this movement reflects investment interest from across the Atlantic, linked by many to broader geopolitical developments. HelleniQ Energy reported comparable EBITDA of €1.132 billion for 2025 (fourth consecutive year above €1 billion) and net profits of €503 million, with a total dividend of €0.60 per share. The group is involved in hydrocarbon exploration south of Crete and in the Ionian Sea in partnership with ExxonMobil. The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) already has a non-binding MoU with ADMIE for the Greece–Cyprus interconnection project, while the U.S. Congress recently expanded DFC’s capacity through 2031. Participation of DFC in Greek firms is seen as part of a strategy to position Greece as an energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, HelleniQ Energy is viewed as an entry point for funds seeking exposure to the region’s energy landscape, with its 14% rise in two weeks reinforcing this narrative.

Record highs for Motor Oil and HELLENiQ ENERGY
The current picture in the Athens Stock Exchange confirms the dominance of the refining sector, with Motor Oil and HELLENiQ ENERGY acting as the main drivers of the General Index’s upward movement. Their record-level performance is based on both cyclical and structural factors. A key driver is the surge in global oil prices. Rising Brent prices—fueled by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ strategy—translate into significant inventory gains. The value of stored crude rises sharply, boosting profitability and intrinsic value. Refining margins also remain strong due to resilient demand for products like diesel, allowing cost pass-through and sustained high operational profitability. HELLENiQ ENERGY closed at €9.88 (18-year high), while Motor Oil reached a historic €38 (up 21% this year), benefiting from energy mix diversification and strong free cash flow generation.

Weapons, not interest rates, define this era
Morgan Stanley put it elegantly: “The last two weeks are another reminder of how modern markets absorb shocks. Capital doesn’t flee risk—it moves around it… Investors manage uncertainty rather than waiting for it to fade.” This trend has defined markets since early 2026. The Eurostoxx Banks index is down about 9.6% year-to-date, after rising 80% in 2025—the best performance since 1987. Meanwhile, the defense industry index is up 14% amid wars, rearmament, and record military budgets. The divergence of over 20 percentage points signals a shift in investment strategy. Defense portfolios have gained around 20% this year, outperforming global indices as investors seek resilience. In 2026, markets recognize that the world is rearming faster than it is growing.

All of America’s gold can’t cover even 3.5% of its debt
The U.S. holds 8,133.46 tons of gold—the largest state reserve in the world. At $5,000 per ounce (a historic high), this amounts to about $1.3 trillion. However, U.S. public debt exceeds $38 trillion, meaning gold covers less than 3.5% of it. Most reserves (56.3%) are stored at Fort Knox, with others in West Point and Denver. In 1980, gold covered 18% of U.S. debt; in the 1940s, under Bretton Woods, it covered 51%. The gold belongs to the Treasury, not the Federal Reserve, and is still officially valued at $42.22 per ounce (1973 price), meaning its book value is just over $11 billion. U.S. debt now stands at $38.86 trillion, rising by $2.64 trillion in one year and $10.86 trillion over five years—equivalent to $7.23 billion per day.

Difficult days for the Japanese yen
The yen fell to 159.75 against the dollar yesterday, its lowest level this year. Japan’s finance minister used language that markets interpret as a warning of intervention: “We are watching with the highest sense of urgency” and “ready for bold action.” In 2024, Japan intervened repeatedly, spending massive sums to support the currency. The Bank of Japan spent about $100 billion to defend the yen at 158–160 levels—buying time but not solving the underlying issue. Japan has had inflation above 2% for nearly four years, while BOJ rates at 0.75% remain negative in real terms. If the yen breaks 160, analysts expect two rate hikes in 2026, possibly starting in April—an outcome that could disrupt markets. For Japan, which imports nearly all its energy, Brent at $100 combined with a weak yen creates a powerful inflationary pressure.