Hello, as the days (and nights) of war in the Middle East continue, anxiety is rising worldwide. Until the day before yesterday, there was a sense that limits were being respected, but things worsened after the Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and the subsequent retaliatory attacks on refineries and fuel depots in Gulf countries. The impact on markets was immediate, affecting oil and natural gas prices as well as stock exchanges.

The Summit and its decisions

As expected, yesterday’s European Summit did not produce a unified decision among Europeans regarding the emerging energy crisis, as not all countries are affected in the same way. Additionally, the price increases in the gas market affecting electricity are not the same as those in the oil market. The focus going forward is on the flexibility member states will have for national measures that may exceed their current fiscal capabilities, particularly regarding “spending caps.” The European Commission is moving in this direction, albeit at the familiar pace of Brussels.

The European defense mechanism

Beyond economics, Kyriakos Mitsotakis made a reference yesterday that may have gone unnoticed: citing the example of the attack on Cyprus, he raised the need for an automated European response mechanism in case of an attack on European territory. This is essentially what Article 42, paragraph 7 of the EU Treaty provides, but currently it only functions after a member state’s request, last used by France after the Bataclan attack. Some compare it to the Civil Protection Mechanism, with a central structure for RescEU coordinating European responses. However, we are not there yet, as member states are generally hesitant on military issues. Mitsotakis wants to open the discussion, as he has mentioned in other recent interventions, including in Foreign Policy. Nikos Christodoulides raised a similar point at the Summit, adding that he will bring it up at the informal European Council on April 23-24 in Cyprus, which holds the EU Presidency.

Polls – war meets COVID-style effects

Critics might say, “the wolf rejoices in the chaos,” friends call him Gastone (lucky), but whatever we say, Mitsotakis does seem to gain points in crises better than others. I had mentioned earlier this week that pollsters saw the New Democracy party, and especially Mitsotakis, rising due to the crisis, confirmed by yesterday’s polls. My own polling source showed similar trends to those reported by Metron Analysis (Mega) and MRB (OPEN). Currently, New Democracy is at 34%, and Mitsotakis has gained 4 points in the suitability question; the percentages for New Democracy’s outright majority are also increased. Importantly, as the source notes, while the recent war events caused a spike, the government’s upward trend started in January. It left behind a bad December with OPEKEPE issues, benefited from measures announced at Thessaloniki by Pierrakakis, and peaked now with the “rally-round-the-flag effect.” The opposition’s circus helps too.

Calls that “unlocked” the gas station owners

Veteran negotiator Theodorikakos did not want to risk the image of a strike at several gas stations, so yesterday’s discussion with station owners was exhaustive and lasted three hours. Even the “hardliners” representing regional stations left with a conciliatory mood, while stressing the government should revisit the fuel excise tax. Following the confrontation with open-air markets, the Gordian knot with gas stations was solved, requiring phone calls from Minister Theodorikakos to Thanos Petralias at the Treasury and Giorgos Pitsilis of AADE during the meeting, to finalize a €3,000 voucher for each station to install a new inflow-outflow system. Since the cap was non-negotiable, this was necessary to satisfy the owners.

New meetings with Chevron and Exxon

While the global energy scene is chaotic, life goes on, and so do local projects. Papastavrou, who attended Parliament yesterday for the emergency measures bill, is heading to Houston, Texas this weekend, where on Monday he and Deputy Minister Tsafos will participate in the largest energy exhibition in the world (CERAWeek). On the sidelines, he is expected to meet with American giants Chevron and ExxonMobil to accelerate exploration drilling in the Ionian Sea within 12 months and conduct seismic and geophysical research south of Crete.

Zoe’s jab at Androulakis

It is clear that Odysseas’ expulsion upset the “universe” of PASOK, both inside and outside Parliament. Konstantinopoulos received hundreds of congratulatory calls for his stance, from almost all parties and MPs, including Alexis Tsipras, and ordinary people in Arcadia. The best moment, however, was live in Parliament: the day before his resignation, Odysseas confronted the new vice president of Parliament, Paris Koukoulooulos, during a roll-call vote, making a point near the KKE and Plevsi benches. Zoe Konstantopoulou approached the PASOK benches afterward, moved to the front row, and commented to the president on Odysseas’ decision: “Great move by Konstantinopoulos!” The president smiled awkwardly and said nothing.

The Paris-Odysseas duo in crisis

Interestingly, some of Nikos’ MPs were absent when Odysseas gave his farewell speech. In the PASOK benches were 13 MPs, including Pavlos Geroulanos, Manolis Christodoulakis, Evangelia Liakouli, and vice president replacement Paris Koukoulooulos. Despite generational differences, Paris and Odysseas have worked closely since the days of Venizelos’ presidency, with Paris becoming party secretary and Odysseas serving as press spokesperson. Even after diverging paths, they maintained a close partnership, which is why Paris remained in the PASOK benches rather than the presidium to salute his friend. The farewell was expressed with hugs, kisses, and prolonged cross-party applause. Some even stood to honor him, despite his pointed criticisms of the party leader. Geroulanos expressed hope that Odysseas’ “goodbye” in Parliament was not final.

Ptochos’ “report card”

Rarely do I cover local government, but in this case, Dimitris Ptochos, one of the more moderate regional governors in Peloponnese, presented an account of his time in office, with data, numbers, and political impact. His presentation highlighted increased resources, ongoing absorptions, and projects coming to life. So when Ptochos says, “Peloponnese is changing,” the statement is backed by concrete figures. There is also talk in Tripoli of creating a new, more technocratic administrative model with measurable indicators and accountability to citizens.

Varvitsiotis siblings…

Two days ago we wrote (via Government Gazette) that Miltiadis, Thomas, Konstantinos, and Eleni Varvitsiotis are entering real estate. A follow-up call clarified: “We will convert our family property on Gennadiou Street into a small boutique hotel, that’s all.” Cheers to that, and you’re invited for a drink.

Karampouzis’ Concern

Nikos Karampouzis appeared concerned about the economic, business, and market consequences of the war in Iran, should it continue and escalate. The executive chairman of the investment fund SMERemediumCap, speaking on the sidelines of an event for an investment plan exceeding €12 million in the portfolio companies Arosis-Gi Voio and Organic3S, referred to an unpredictable President and asymmetric impacts if military conflicts persist and critical energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be destroyed. In that scenario, he predicted that inflation in Europe could rise to high levels, possibly 4–5%, since “infrastructure is not restored the next day, time is needed, and there is a risk of entering a situation of increasing inflation that will trigger interest rate hikes and push economies into recession.” He stressed that Europe will face significant pressure, as American gas is more expensive, and highlighted that we are entering a critical phase: if the conflict does not end within 3–4 weeks, the economic damage will become serious.

The party of the century

The experienced Karampouzis added another dimension, namely the ever-growing U.S. public debt. He emphasized the need to keep close attention on the trajectory of U.S. debt, which has now reached $38.86 trillion and is increasing, as the war in Iran is estimated to cost the U.S. about $1 billion per day. It was reported that the Pentagon will submit a request for an additional $200 billion to fund the war in Iran, which the Trump administration could present to Congress. If debt expansion continues rapidly, Karampouzis warned, markets may eventually reassess U.S. debt, and then, as he said, “the party of the century” will happen.

GEK TERNA, EYDAP, and large-scale PPP water projects

The only large- or mid-cap stock that moved upward and optimistically yesterday on the declining stock exchange was EYDAP (+4.88% at €9.24). This followed a large block sale of 2.8% of its share capital (3 million shares worth €29.1 million) at €9.70, +10.1% from the previous close of €8.81. The seller was the UK-based fund WestBourne, and the buyer was the GEK TERNA Group, which now clearly takes a seat at the critical decision-making table of EYDAP, holding a 12.8% stake. A few days earlier, through URBAN SERVICES, GEK TERNA had acquired 9.71% from American billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson at €10 per share. GEK TERNA, along with a smaller stake from Giorgos Salonikis, are now the two most powerful private shareholders of EYDAP. The market interprets GEK TERNA’s increasing stake as a vote of confidence in the long-term prospects of the water resources management sector and upcoming large PPP projects. Even though the General Index fell 2.5% due to international uncertainty, EYDAP moved upward because the presence of a strategic investor like GEK TERNA provides a strong safety net for the stock. EYDAP recorded its 8th consecutive gain, closing above €9.2—a new 12-year high. Its market capitalization now approaches €984 million, nearing the €1 billion milestone.

Container rise and hidden risk for the Port of Piraeus

The recent picture at the Piraeus Port Authority warrants careful reading. The increase in container traffic does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal, but rather a market adjustment amid heightened geopolitical risk. Instability in the Middle East has suddenly altered shipping routes. In this context, Piraeus emerges as an alternative unloading point, primarily for cargo avoiding ports in war zones. However, these flows stem from risk management rather than increased demand. Container traffic at piers II and III reached 312,400 TEUs in February 2026, up from 301,400 TEUs in January. Yet, year-over-year, it remains lower than February 2025 (353,500 TEUs), leaving a negative “gap” of about 11–12%. COSCO Shipping remains decisive, acting as a primary driver of port supply. This practice supports short-term stability but highlights Piraeus’ structural dependence on specific trade networks and strategic choices. Overall port performance remains positive, with cruise activity offsetting weaker sectors.

Million-dollar deals of Greeks whispered in the market

In the ship chartering market, where deals are made away from the spotlight, the week had a strong Greek presence. Greek shipowners continue to invest in newbuilding. Venergy Maritime, owned by Vyron Vassiliadis, agreed to two plus two option Suezmax tankers of 158,000 dwt at Shanghai Waigaoqiao, to be delivered in 2029–2030. Seanergy Maritime, owned by Stamatis Tsantani, reportedly closed a 181,500 dwt bulker at a Japanese yard for 2029 delivery with a scrubber. In containerships, Costamare of Kostis Konstantakopoulos reportedly ordered four 3,100 TEU feeder vessels at Zhoushan Changhong for 2028. Secondhand activity was selective but targeted: Greek interests acquired the Kamsarmax TRABZON (81,660 dwt, 2011, Hyundai Mipo, South Korea) for ~$17.5 million, with mid-March delivery and next SS/DD in November 2026. The Capesize SQUIRESHIP (170,018 dwt, 2010, Sungdong, South Korea) changed hands via United Maritime for $29.5 million, while NORD ARIES (81,895 dwt, 2020, Jiangsu Newyangzi, China) went to Primebulk for $32 million, and the Ultramax ABILITY (64,253 dwt, 2021, Shin Kurushima, Japan) to Astrobulk for ~$37 million. Greek interests also bought MR S FONTVIEILLE (49,990 dwt, 2013, Hyundai Mipo, South Korea) for ~$32.5 million, with immediate delivery. Containership moves included the Pmax SUNNY PHOENIX and FELIXSTOWE (4,253 TEU, 2002, Samsung Heavy Industries) at ~$18 million each.

Cyberattacks on Greek-owned ships in the Middle East

Greek shipping is now facing a new, digital chapter of hybrid threats. From the Ukraine war to the Iran conflict, Greek-owned vessels are experiencing attacks that go beyond drones and missiles, directly targeting shipping offices in Greece. Well-informed sources report that incidents have multiplied in recent months and are under review by authorities. Greek companies have been given clear instructions: all 168 Greek-owned ships in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman must immediately inform authorities of any electronic system issues. This measure demonstrates how seriously the government treats the threat, while maintaining a safety network between public statements and operational action. Shipping executives acknowledge GNSS jamming and spoofing have caused temporary communication glitches with vessels, but the most notable aspect is the behind-the-scenes coordination. The Ministry of Shipping, the Central Cybersecurity Coordination Body, and private companies are quietly working to create mechanisms for immediate response without alarming the public.

Lamda’s Opening to Gulf Big Wallets

The relentless bombings, aside from the physical destruction, leave behind a grim and harmful environment. Material damages will eventually be repaired, but the international image of the small earthly paradises—lush, joyful, and tolerant—that had been created in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Oman has been seriously harmed, and it will take time to return to their former state. This situation creates a unique opportunity for Greek real estate targeting wealthy buyers seeking quality of life and security in attractive environments. Lamda Development is already trying to exploit this opportunity (yesterday -3.57% at €5.95), showcasing not only the progress of its projects and infrastructure but also its plans for a modern city being built at Elliniko.

The luxury of the TITAN Group

The €1.1 per share dividend distributed by TITAN did not excite the market, nor did it disappoint. The management’s “cautiously optimistic” forecasts for the future, in a time overshadowed by war, highlighted the highly conservative balance sheet management, which in such periods proves “golden.” The key metric in yesterday’s TITAN announcement (-2.65% at €44) is neither revenue nor profits—it is the debt-to-operating-profit (EBITDA) ratio. With net debt around €213 million and EBITDA exceeding €606 million, the group shows a leverage ratio below 0.35 times. In an industry that traditionally operates with high leverage due to capital-intensive production, TITAN appears as a safe haven. The market expected a slightly higher dividend from management, which has abundant liquidity. However, the conservative approach, amid a volatile geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape with energy shocks, returning inflation, and uncertainty in the U.S. (where TITAN has significant presence), is a strategic choice. Cement demand remains resilient—from U.S. infrastructure to European defense projects—but energy costs could quickly alter projections. With minimal debt relative to cash flow generation, the group has the luxury to choose: to acquire, invest, or return capital.

It’s still early to assess the depth of the crisis

European leaders are not only monitoring Brent crude and natural gas prices. The situation is far more complex. Bloomberg published charts showing Oman crude at $173 per barrel—a historic record surpassing even the 2008 peak. Dubai crude exceeded $150 as buyers struggle to replace supply that has effectively been cut in half. Meanwhile, Brent traded around $115 and WTI near $95. Brent reflects North Sea conditions, WTI U.S. conditions, and both largely ignore the physical reality of the Middle East. When the Strait of Hormuz closes, cutting roughly 20% of global production, what we see in Oman and Dubai is a real price war over physical barrels, not paper contracts or futures. The price gap between Brent and WTI is widening, the largest since 2013. The crisis hits asymmetrically the part of Europe most dependent on Middle Eastern crude. The U.S., with shale production, absorbs the shock more easily—but not indefinitely. If the Straits remain closed, Western inventories will be depleted at a rate no alternative supply can offset. Brent and WTI prices would then approach Oman levels, with catastrophic consequences for energy prices, inflation, and global interest rates. That is when the real magnitude of the crisis will be revealed.

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are not immune to the crisis

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, plunged below $70,000 (-2.3% in 24 hours). Gold, traditionally the safest haven in times of war, collapsed -5%, losing $1,000/oz in a week. Silver fell -8% in a single session. This reflects a market violently repricing the future. Theoretically, investors buy gold to hedge against geopolitical shocks, but the strengthening dollar forced over-leveraged investors into forced liquidations. Rising energy prices resurrect the specter of inflation. Markets now price a “higher for longer” interest rate environment, increasing the opportunity cost of holding low-yield assets like precious metals. A similar pattern occurred during the 2008 and 2020 crises, when investors sold gold to cover other collapsing asset positions. Silver, besides being a safe haven, has industrial use. Yet, everyone remembers the black session of February 2026, when silver fell up to 14% in one day—technically on “Black Friday,” January 30, 2026, silver suffered the largest intraday drop in its history, plunging over 36% at one point, below $85. The repercussions affected the entire month of February. That Friday, gold experienced its biggest daily drop in 40 years, falling over 12%. Bitcoin’s trajectory is not surprising; recently it has acted as a “leveraged bet” exploiting abundant liquidity. When liquidity risks rise, Bitcoin collapses. It is certainly not the “digital gold” that endures crises, contrary to its advocates’ claims.