Greetings, welcome back from a nice summer long weekend. We said we’d go off for a bit to catch our breath and in the end we might lose the Democratic Party altogether! What’s going on, folks? Between the polls that started last week (and will run until Thursday), Haroulis the “mayor guy,” they’re turning PASOK into a summer soap opera (wasn’t it already?). You’ll read below in detail about the chaos inside and outside the party, but I want to say two things upfront, appealing to common sense. Right now all the polls put Tsipras second with 14%-15%, clearly second, Karystianou third but on a downward trend at 12%, and Androulakis at 10%-11%. Of course, it’s early and new parties tend to “inflate” a bit in polls at the start. But if, I say if, this ranking becomes stable—even without Maria K. in the middle—between Tsipras and Androulakis, then there is a problem here. Especially if Tsipras has a clear 4–5 point lead over Nikos A. And yes, if Mitsotakis goes for elections in September (I don’t rule it out at all), then nobody has time to do anything. But if he pushes it to next year, honestly, what will PASOK do—give the “keys” of the center-left back to Tsipras for a second time? Or will it listen to Doulkas who wants everyone to co-govern together? Well, what the mayor said the other day about a coalition of the opposition with Tsipras as leader is basically… a gift for K.M. He’ll go for 41% again, straight up! And let me add: if we have a second election round, since ND is at 30% today, logic says that with polarization the first and second parties will benefit a lot, while from third place downward significant strength is usually lost. Meaning PASOK would drop back to memorandum-era levels. I predict a nice autumn and an even better winter—just as I told you…

The total breakdown: Doulkas – Diamantopoulou

• When things are already going wrong, along comes… Doulkas, who more or less told Androulakis that if Tsipras comes first, he should take the leadership of the “progressive camp.” Haris’ “bombshell” exploded early Sunday morning in Charilaou Trikoupi, where only the guards were present (due to the long weekend), but what does that matter? Phones started ringing off the hook among the president Nikos’ associates, and messages were flooding in—many from hardline Androulakis supporters along the lines of: “With all this going on, maybe we should hand over the keys to Alexis already?” Doulkas tried to issue a “clarifying” statement but it wasn’t really a “mea culpa,” as his critics expected. Meanwhile, the other soul of PASOK, Anna Diamantopoulou, began receiving consecutive messages from political friends urging her to respond, since President Nikos was pretending he neither saw nor heard anything. So Diamantopoulou—who just days earlier had “blown up” Doulkas’ supporters by declaring that “we remain opponents of ND until the elections”—decided to “answer” Doulkas. Not with vague hints, but with sharp, high-velocity political barbs that reached Kotzia, along with the message from other centrists in PASOK that “we do not beg for alliances, especially with those who insult us” (meaning only one person: Alexis). And what did Androulakis do on Pentecost Monday to salvage what could be salvaged from PASOK’s chaos? Nothing! He started notifying, allegedly, his associates in Charilaou Trikoupi that the Political Council meeting scheduled for tomorrow is postponed! Due to bad weather? Indefinitely? Imagine the scene if it hadn’t been postponed: Doulkas on one side of the table, Diamantopoulou on the other, and Androulakis in the middle, pretending nothing happened! Total breakdown, while inside PASOK storm-force winds were already forming from their fourth place in the polls.

The message of the demarche to Albania

• And shifting gears: it was no coincidence that the Greek Foreign Ministry issued a demarche to Albania over the incident that resulted in the injury of a Greek citizen in the coastal town of Zvërnec. The reason behind the demarche is linked to the property rights of the Greek minority, not so much in that specific area where Kushner’s investment is taking place, but more broadly, as there are major delays from the Albanian land registry. And this is not necessarily due to Albanian administrative incompetence—it may also be deliberate—so Athens wanted to remind Rama that it is watching him. And since in recent months Giorgos Gerapetritis has taken more initiatives regarding the Western Balkans and their EU accession path, which clearly passes through Greece, Athens wanted to remind its neighbors of this. For coordination, there were also several communications between Mitsotakis and Gerapetritis.

The decisions from Chania

• Mitsotakis returned to Athens yesterday and even attended the opening ceremony of the Posidonia shipping exhibition near the airport. In the coming days he is expected to announce to his associates his decision on the person who will become party secretary—a position which, according to current information, will go to an MP. Let’s see what the beaches and mountains of Chania produced this time…

At the funeral of Tagaras

• On Wednesday afternoon, Mitsotakis, along with almost the entire cabinet, will attend the funeral of Nikos Tagaras in Corinth, who passed away after a long and dignified battle with cancer. For this reason, Mitsotakis also postponed an event planned with the Ministry of Digital Governance for presenting new cadastre functions, which will be rescheduled for the coming days.

7 MPs wave goodbye

• Back to the opposition: today, most likely, the parliamentary group of New Left is dissolving as 7 MPs are waving goodbye. Alexis Charitsis, Effie Achtsioglou, Dimitris Tzanakopoulos, Nasos Iliopoulos, Theano Fotiou, Meropi Tzoufi, and Hussein Zeibek are heading to Alexis Tsipras’ “E.L.A.S.” However, Charitsis has made it clear they will not give up their seats—despite this being a strict condition set by Tsipras—and will instead become independents. Sia Anagnostopoulou, I am told, will remain in New Left. “Let’s finish this, it had become a disgrace,” say those staying in the party. Interestingly, negotiations with Tsipras are ongoing and it’s hard political poker. A very reliable source told me that the head of E.L.A.S. has set specific electoral conditions: Effie Achtsioglou should run in Pella, Nasos Iliopoulos in Western Athens instead of Athens A, and Charitsis in Messinia. Fotiou, Tzoufi, and Tzanakopoulos will not be candidates. What happens next in New Left? Gavriil Sakellaridis is maintaining channels with Yanis Varoufakis’ MeRA25, while also trying to appeal to voters and cadres from SYRIZA who will not go to Tsipras. Meanwhile, Pappas, Douros, and Polakis, who will remain in SYRIZA, have begun contacts with Nikos Kotzias, hoping to form an anti-Tsipras pole. Among all of them, Sokratis Famellos is in the most awkward position. If what I’m told is true, he has received the message from Tsipras that he is not considered important—so he’s in for a rough ride…

Qualco (CRC) and systemic banks for the Real Estate Agency

• And we move on to market news, starting from the financial sector’s modern “Bridge of Arta”, the Property Acquisition and Re-Leasing Entity. The tender was completed last Friday, May 29, without any rush of interested bidders. Only one offer was submitted, from CRC (Qualco’s servicer platform). According to the column’s information, the offer is being “built up,” as the four systemic banks will be added to CRC’s bid (under a model of… compulsory voluntarism), so that in September—as promised by K. Pierrakakis—the entity will begin operations, offering around 15,000 vulnerable households the chance to save their homes by paying rent. The surprise is that heavyweight names that had shown interest and followed all stages of the process did not appear in the tender, such as Fortress, BAIN Capital, Cepal, etc.

The man who loves deals (and hates publicity)

• The deal that broke the calm of the long weekend was the agreement between Nitsiakos and MHP. A deal that was closed under the radar of the market—although it had been in the works for many months—and became known only on Saturday evening, shortly after the Champions League final ended! Behind the deal is Nikolas Xydis of Value Partners, a person with strong capabilities who has been involved in several deals in the Greek market in recent years and who operates with seriousness, as also shown by his systematic effort to stay out of the spotlight. Before the Nitsiakos–MHP deal, Xydis acted on behalf of Alpha Trust in the agreement with Alpha Bank.

The signatures were signed

• By the way, another deal that was formally completed over the Pentecost long weekend was the acquisition of Kritikos by Masoutis, with the two businessmen putting pen to paper. The deal went through 40 waves, as it was initially scheduled to close in September–October 2025.

Kerosene helps Motor Oil’s bond issuance

• The €400 million Eurobond of Motor Oil matures next July. In other times, and ahead of rising euro interest rates, such a maturity would have triggered alarm at Motor Oil. This year, however, MOH is going to the markets with the advantage that in the first quarter turnover jumped +25% to €3.36 billion, net profits almost quadrupled to €332.7 million (€203 million adjusted), and (the most crucial factor for bondholders) net debt fell by about €320 million in just one quarter, to €1.26 billion. With such figures, the yield on the next issuance already looks better than the existing one. The difference has been made by aviation fuel, which accounts for about 20% of revenues. Despite the drop in passenger traffic to the Middle East, the group’s aviation fuel volumes almost doubled, from about 261,000 to around 512,000 metric tons. Revenues of roughly half a billion. Part of the increase is attributed to airlines’ efforts to stockpile aviation fuel, as well as supply to the U.S. fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Motor Oil group, through its subsidiary OFC (the former Olympic Fuel Company), holds the keys to the receipt, storage, and distribution of aviation fuel at “El. Venizelos” airport.