Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a new three-month low, undermining expectations of a gradual restoration of shipping through the world’s most important energy corridor.

Only two energy-cargo vessels passed through the strait on Monday, August 24, according to data from Kpler. This was the lowest daily figure since early May and dramatically below the average of 14 vessels per day during the preceding ten-day period.

The two vessels were a very large crude carrier (VLCC) and a very large gas carrier (VLGC). Both traveled from the Gulf of Oman into the Persian Gulf, with no corresponding outbound vessel recorded toward the Arabian Sea.

On Sunday, seven transits by vessels of various types had been recorded. Kpler’s data remain provisional, however, as a number of vessels transit the area with their transponders switched off.

This also explains the apparent gap between the extremely low number of recorded vessels and the volumes of oil believed to still be moving through the strait. Vortexa estimated Monday’s flows at around 5 million barrels per day, while the seven-day moving average as of August 23 stood at between 6 million and 7 million barrels per day. These estimates also include movements that may not appear promptly in conventional tracking systems.

The picture, therefore, does not point to a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather to a corridor operating intermittently, with limited visibility and extremely elevated risk.

The latest decline coincides with Tehran’s decision to place 45 tankers on a non-compliant vessel list, threatening them with fines, detention and cargo seizures. Iran has warned that the restrictions could even extend to vessels carrying out ship-to-ship transfers with blacklisted tankers. The Iranian measures are increasing the risks for shipowners, charterers and traders.

The situation has also been compounded by the attack on the Greek-owned Metro Venetian, operated by Metrostar, in the approaches to the strait.

Under these circumstances, available tonnage willing to accept voyages into the Gulf remains limited, sustaining extreme premiums for VLCCs, higher insurance costs and pressure on alternative export routes.

The Strait of Hormuz remains technically open, but operationally it is far from normal.