The prime minister is promoting a new tax agreement that will reward compliant taxpayers: a smaller advance tax payment and softer presumptive income rules, higher incomes, and support for families and pensioners form part of the 2027 to 2030 roadmap to be announced in Thessaloniki.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is preparing to present a new tax agreement covering businesses, professionals and households, with immediate measures from 2027 and further commitments to be rolled out gradually until 2030, when he takes the podium at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF). The plan is centred on cutting the tax burden and increasing disposable income.

For the first time, the concept of compliance sits so prominently at the heart of the plan. The message coming from the Maximos Mansion, the prime minister’s official residence and office, and the economic team is simple: if you are consistent, you gain. Taxpayers, businesses and professionals who pay on time, meet their obligations and have a clean tax record will gradually be treated differently from those who systematically run up debts or breach their obligations.

In effect, it amounts to a new relationship with the tax office, which the government wants to present as part of its broader economic policy for the next four years: more relief where there is compliance, fewer across-the-board burdens and a gradual shift from presumptive taxation to real data on economic activity.

The profile of a “compliant” taxpayer will be defined by the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE), which will set the characteristics and criteria on which the new reward system will be built.

This model will be combined with a wider package of tax and income measures, which the prime minister is expected to fold into the roadmap he presents in Thessaloniki. Under consideration are a reduction in the advance tax payment, changes to presumptive income for professionals, the abolition of the business activity fee for companies, a further cut in social security contributions, and investment incentives, as well as measures for families with children, pensioners, salaried workers, civil servants and farmers.

The overall cost of the new measures for 2027 is put at around 1.8 to 2 billion euros. Roughly 1.4 to 1.6 billion euros of that is expected to go towards tax relief and income support, while a further portion covers energy investment through the EU’s new escape clause. Mitsotakis is also expected to present a longer-term map, so that measures too large to fit within a single annual budget can be phased in gradually until 2030.

The plan for a smaller advance payment and lower presumptive taxation

Small and medium-sized businesses form the core of the tax side of the so-called TIF package. Here, a large share of the requests put to the economic team appear to be making it onto the government’s agenda, either in full or to a large extent.

The first major change is a cut to the advance tax payment. At present, companies pay 80% of the tax due on the previous year’s profits in advance, while self-employed professionals pay an advance of 55%.

For companies, the strongest scenario points to an initial reduction from 80% to 60%, while for smaller firms a range of 50% to 60% has even been examined, depending on turnover. The thinking is not to cut the rate straight to 50% in one go, which would open up a large fiscal gap, but to make a first substantial cut while setting out the framework for further reductions up to 2030.

For self-employed professionals, the 55% advance is likewise moving towards 40%, provided the fiscal space allows it. This is one of the most direct measures affecting liquidity, since the advance payment takes funds out of businesses’ and professionals’ hands before they can be used for investment, payroll or covering operating costs.

The second major front is presumptive income for self-employed professionals, a system under which the tax authorities can assess a minimum taxable income regardless of a professional’s declared earnings. The government does not appear to be heading towards an overnight, across-the-board abolition, but rather a gradual dismantling of the system. The first adjustments could already apply to 2026 income, so that the relief shows up in 2027 tax returns.

Under consideration are a loosening of the link between presumptive income and the minimum wage, so that every rise in the latter does not automatically inflate the minimum taxable base, a reduced weighting for the payroll criterion, more exemptions, and greater differentiation by sector and the real characteristics of each business.

This is exactly where the compliant taxpayer’s profile comes in. AADE will decide who can be considered compliant and on what criteria, and this will gradually underpin the loosening, or even the removal, of presumptive taxation. The more real data the tax administration holds through myDATA, the online digital bookkeeping platform, card payment terminals, the IRIS instant payments system, e-invoicing, digital delivery notes and electronic transactions, the less need there is for a blanket presumptive mechanism.

Rewarding compliance is not, however, expected to stop at presumptive taxation. The same logic could be extended to the advance tax payment, debt settlement schemes and other tax breaks, gradually creating a different tax profile for those who pay regularly, keep to their settlement plans and do not run up new overdue debts.

The same package includes the complete abolition of the business activity fee, an annual flat charge, for companies. The fee has already been scrapped for self-employed professionals but still applies to companies, with the annual fiscal cost of scrapping it entirely put at around 240 million euros.

A proposal to extend the carry-forward period for tax losses has also been accepted, moving from the current five years to ten. A company that recorded heavy losses in a difficult year would then have more time to offset them against future profits, rather than losing the tax benefit simply because it did not return to profitability quickly enough. A request for increased tax depreciation on productive and industrial investment is also moving forward. The idea is that anyone investing in new equipment, technology or expanded production could write off the cost of the investment against taxable profits more quickly.

Also on the table are raising the threshold for favourable taxation of new professionals from 10,000 to 20,000 euros, reinstating a form of tax-free allowance for the self-employed, and gradually phasing out the “living standards” presumptions used to estimate income from assets such as cars and property. These proposals are not yet as advanced as the changes to the advance payment, presumptive income, loss carry-forwards or depreciation, but they remain on the wider list of measures put to the economic team.

Cutting the corporate tax rate from 22% to 20% remains on the wider map, though it is not currently among the strongest immediate measures for 2027. It cannot be ruled out, however, that it could turn out to be a last-minute surprise, or alternatively, one of the next steps in the plan through to 2030.

More money for families with children

Families with children rank high on the list of measures, with the government looking at how to provide greater support.

The starting point is the 150-euro per child payment introduced this year. Two main scenarios are being considered for the next step. The first would raise the amount above 150 euros, making the payment larger for those who already qualify. The second would keep the payment at 150 euros but relax the income criteria, so that more families, and a larger share of the middle class, become eligible.

Also under consideration is widening the income criteria for the A21 child benefit, so that more working middle-class families are covered. At present, the benefit is lost once equivalised family income passes 15,000 euros, meaning two working parents can relatively easily fall outside the scheme. As an example, a couple with two children loses the A21 benefit above 30,000 euros of family income. The proposal envisages higher thresholds, widening the pool of recipients.

A “13th payment” for pensioners on the table

For pensioners, the debate centres mainly on the size of the permanent annual bonus. From 300 euros currently, the strongest scenario envisages a rise to 400 euros, while a more generous version of 446.87 euros, roughly equivalent to the national pension, is also on the table. The latter option would effectively give the payment the character of a “13th national pension,” though without restoring the old, full 13th pension payment. Another option is to take a first step towards 400 euros and increase the payment gradually in subsequent years, in line with the roadmap through to 2030.

At the same time, main pensions are expected to rise by around 2.7% to 2.9%, while adjustments to the Pensioners’ Solidarity Contribution, a means-tested deduction applied to higher pensions, also remain on the table.

Lower contributions, higher take-home pay

For salaried workers, a further cut in social security contributions is one of the main tools for boosting real income.

The baseline plan is a further cut of 0.5 percentage points, with additional fiscal space being sought so the overall reduction could reach a full percentage point.

In the most generous version, the benefit could be split between employees and employers, increasing the net amount workers take home while also lowering companies’ non-wage costs. This is one of the government’s main answers to cost-of-living pressures: fewer deductions and more permanent net income each month, rather than a one-off payment that runs out. Support is also growing for raising the tax-free daily limit on meal vouchers from six to 10 euros. The limit has remained unchanged for 22 years, and adjusting it would allow companies to offer employees a larger tax-free benefit, indirectly boosting their disposable income.

Pay rises on the way in the public sector

Civil servants will also see an income boost from the new rise in the minimum wage. With the minimum wage targeted to move above 950 euros in 2027, the existing link between the two automatically passes the increase on to public sector pay. Based on current figures, that translates into an across-the-board rise of around 30 euros from April 2027.

The real interest, though, lies in what could be added on top of that. Targeted additional income measures are being examined, though the precise model has not yet been settled. A full restoration of the 13th month’s salary is not an immediate scenario, given the very high fiscal cost, but the idea of gradually recovering part of what public sector workers lost remains on the wider roadmap through to 2030.

How support for farmers is being planned

Farmers are also included in the package, with the government looking at direct support for agricultural incomes. The exact amount remains open, but the measure is being designed at a time when energy costs, fertiliser, animal feed and transport continue to weigh heavily on production costs.

The plan also involves redistributing farm subsidy funds freed up after the identification of illegitimate or ineligible recipients. The aim is for the money saved to be redirected back to genuine producers and to boost agricultural incomes.

Next moves on rents and property tax

On property, an overhaul of the tax scale for rental income is under consideration, with two goals: reducing the tax burden on landlords, and creating a stronger incentive to declare actual rents received.

New adjustments to ENFIA, the annual property tax, are also being examined, though their scope has not yet been finalised. Among the specific requests submitted is extending the ENFIA discount that currently applies to insured homes to insured commercial properties as well, so that the incentive to insure against natural disasters also extends to business premises.

In the same area are extensions to, or improvements of, incentives to bring vacant homes back onto the long-term rental market, the suspension of VAT on new buildings, and the capital gains tax on property.

The extra “fund” opened up by the escape clause

Energy forms a separate chapter, as the European Union’s escape clause, which allows member states extra fiscal room outside normal budget rules, creates additional fiscal space beyond the purely tax and income package.

For 2027, that portion is put at around 400 million euros, while over time, activating the clause could free up as much as 1.5 billion euros in national resources by 2028 for eligible energy investments. Measures on the table include investment in energy storage, energy upgrades to buildings, heat pumps and other energy infrastructure, with an implementation horizon that could extend to 2028.