Demographic pressures are placing the social security system and labour market under increasing strain, bringing the prospect of an inevitable rise in retirement ages in Greece in the coming years to the fore.

The European Commission’s latest report on demographic change and economic ageing, the Ageing Report 2027, points to the possibility of Greece’s statutory retirement age rising to 68 by 2030. Specifically, it estimates that the general retirement age in Greece will increase from 67 in 2025 to 68 in 2030, 70 in 2055 and 72 in 2080. Similarly, the early retirement age, currently set at 62, is projected to rise to 63 in 2030, 65 in 2055 and 67 in 2080.

It should be noted that, under the current provision of the Katrougalos law, which has not been repealed, retirement ages have been subject to review every three years since 1 January 2024, based on life expectancy. Between 2010 and 2015, life expectancy increased by approximately seven to 12 months.

However, no comparable increase was recorded between 2015 and 2020. Indeed, life expectancy has declined in recent years as a result of the pandemic. Consequently, according to the Ministry of Labour, there is currently no need to open a discussion on raising the statutory retirement age.

The Commission’s recommendation to raise retirement ages is linked to the country’s demographic profile, which points to an ageing population, with births continuing to decline and life expectancy rising.

More specifically, Greece’s population is projected to fall from 10.4 million in 2025 to 10.2 million in 2030, 9.7 million in 2040 and just 7.6 million in 2080. At the same time, ageing will radically alter the population structure. The proportion of people aged 65 and over, which stood at 23.9% in 2025, is forecast to rise to 25.9% in 2030, 31.1% in 2040 and 34.6% in 2080. Even more striking is the projected increase in the oldest age group, those aged over 80: from 7.2% of the population in 2025, their share is expected to reach 14.9% by 2080.

The main reason is that births are insufficient to replace the generations growing older and leaving the labour market. Greece’s fertility rate stands at just 1.20 children per woman. Although the Commission expects it to increase gradually, it will remain very low: 1.22 in 2030, 1.34 in 2040 and 1.45 in 2080 – well below the approximately 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain the population without the contribution of migration.

Meanwhile, life expectancy continues to rise. For women, it is projected to increase from 84.5 years in 2025 to 90.1 in 2080, while for men it is expected to rise from 79.5 to 86.4 years. At the age of 65, women are expected to have an average of a further 26.4 years of life in 2080, compared with 21.8 in 2025, while the corresponding figure for men is projected to increase from 18.7 to 23.8 years. In other words, pensioners will live for longer after leaving the workforce, increasing the period during which pensions must be paid.