Election night promises a tense for all parties, according to polls New Democracy (ND) is expected to secure first place, heat for seat apportionment will unfold in reference to final seat allocation that includes SYRIZA and PASOK for 2nd place, KKE and Greek Solution for 4th place, and a tail-end battle among 4 parties for the 3% threshold.
Undecided Voters
Approximately 12% of voters remain undecided, potentially impacting seat distribution. Analysts believe stability versus instability is unlikely to sway this group significantly, limiting ND’s potential increase to 2%. The rest may lean towards abstention or very small parties.
The total percentage of parties below 3% could exceed 16%, reflecting previous elections’ figures. The electoral measure determining seat allocation depends on the sum of percentages above 3%, but exceeding this threshold does not guarantee a party one of Greece’s 21 European Parliament seats.
Top 5
The last four polls shape the electoral map and outline the critical thresholds for securing seats. Parties reaching 3.18% are likely to secure one seat. To elect a second MEP, a percentage around 7.2% is needed, the third seat at 11.6%, and the fourth around 16%.
New Democracy (ND) appears poised to secure 8 MEPs in all recent polling scenarios. It might hope for a 9th seat if it surpasses 35.3%. Average poll results give SYRIZA a clear lead for second place over PASOK, but both are expected to win 3 seats each.
Pollsters note uncertainties regarding SYRIZA’s final percentage, which depends on voter turnout. In an adverse context, SYRIZA’s percentage might drop to 13%, the same as PASOK’s average. In a favorable setting, where SYRIZA surpasses 16%, a fourth MEP could be elected. The battle for 4th place is between Greek Solution (Eliniki Lysi) and KKE, both polling in the 7%-10% range, securing 2 seats each.
The Tail-end Battle
Heat seems to be at the tail end of the electoral race, with 6 parties (Plefsis Eleftherias, Niki, Nea Aristera, MeRA25, Dimokrates – Loverdos, Latinopoulou) hovering around the 3% threshold.
Leading this pack is Zoe Konstantopoulou’s Plefsis Eleftherias, averaging 3.6%-4% in recent polls, ensuring one MEP. Dimitris Natsios’ Niki is slightly above 3.2%, likely securing a seat. The New Left (Nea Aristera) is in the crucial zone with just over 3%, and their MEP election may depend on last votes. Finally, just above 1.5% are Afroditi Latinopoulou’s Voice of Reason (Foni Logikis), Andreas Loverdos’ Dimokrates, and Yanis Varoufakis’ MeRA25.
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