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Marine Le Pen currently holds the lead in the polls for the upcoming presidential election and appears to have a chance at winning the second round of voting, a milestone she has failed to reach in her two previous attempts.
In the competition to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, who is legally prevented from seeking a third consecutive term in the 2027 elections, Marine Le Pen, as the head of the right-wing National Rally (RN) in the national assembly, is the preferred choice in first-round ballot intentions, according to an Ifop survey conducted for Valleurs Actuells magazine.
The survey, which sampled 1,081 voters, indicates that the RN leader would secure the top spot with 36% of the vote, surpassing both Édouard Philippe, the Mayor of Le Havre, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who each garnered 22%. Meanwhile, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the leftist La France Insoumise (LFI), trails behind at approximately 14%.
In terms of the potential second round, which occurs if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote and has historically favored centrist establishment parties, Le Pen is projected to narrowly defeat Gabriel Attal by a margin of 51% to 49%. In a hypothetical matchup with Édouard Philippe, Le Pen and Philippe would tie at 50% each.
These projections for the right-wing candidate signal a significant political shift, especially considering Le Pen’s previous defeat against Macron in the 2022 election by a margin of 58.5% to 41.5%, an improvement over her performance in the 2017 election where she was defeated by a wider margin of 66.1% to 33.9%.
The trend towards the right among the French populace coincides with increasing discontent throughout Europe with globalist governance, particularly concerning issues like mass migration and environmental policies, which have led to farmer uprisings, particularly intense in France in recent months.
June marks a crucial moment for Le Pen as voters in France and the EU will cast their ballots for a new parliament in Brussels. Projections from the European Council of Foreign Relations suggest that the Identity and Democracy (ID) parliamentary group, to which Le Pen’s National Rally belongs, is expected to gain 30 French seats compared to Renew Europe’s (RE) 18 seats.
If Le Pen were to outperform Macron in the European Parliament elections, it would not only challenge Macron’s leadership but also solidify her position as the frontrunner for the French presidency. Additionally, Macron’s Renew Europe is projected to be surpassed by the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, led by the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, indicating a broader shift towards conservative politics in Europe.
This week, Marion Maréchal, a rising star in French right-wing circles and vice-chairwoman of the Reconquest party, announced that her party would join the ECR to counter the influence of Macron’s Renew group in the European Parliament. Maréchal, who split from her aunt Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to join Eric Zemmour’s anti-mass migration party in 2022, emphasized their shared vision of Europe, centered around opposing immigration, Brussels centralism, and defending conservative values.
