New York Times: Scenarios for a bank run and a political U-turn on behalf of SYRIZA

If SYRIZA wins the election, it will be under extreme time pressure

In an article titled “After elections, Greece will be in race against time” Reuter’s editor Hugo Dixon presents post-election scenarios that involve the possibility of a bank run, the risk of the country exiting the euro zone and the possibility for main opposition SYRIZA to make a drastic U-turn and compromise with the country’s creditors.

Although the columnist estimates that Greece probably won’t be forced out of the euro, he warns that if Syriza wins the January election and doesn’t perform the U-turn necessary to keep its creditors satisfied in time, depositors in Greek banks may panic.

Underlining that it will be politically impossible for the country’s lenders to cut the headline debt level, Dixon notes that the most probable compromise would be to fix the interest rate at very low levels and extend the grace period before the debt has to be repaid.

Dixon believes that Syriza could accept such an approach, given enough time, although a move like that would most certainly be perceived as a somersault, or what the Greeks call “kolotoumba,” i.e. a betrayal of what the party stands for.

According to the New York Times article, if Syriza wins the upcoming election without ensuring an overall majority, it will have to secure a coalition, with centrist To Potami as the most obvious choice for a partner. However, To Potami will never agree to a deal that could put Greece’s presence in the euro zone at risk and it will probably urge Syriza to ask for an extension of the bailout plan.

Alexis Tsipras may decide against this drastic move, which means that there will be no coalition deal, and a second election will be called for late February, the article says.