"Worst-case" climate predictions are "no longer plausible", study suggests

‘Worst-case’ climate change scenarios with up to 4ºC or 5ºC of warming are no longer possible, a study has suggested.

Researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder say that such scenarios are based on outdated data from 15 years ago and are no longer likely to happen.

The study also found that the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement to limit warming to 2C is still within reach.

Lead author Roger Pielke Jr, professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder, said: “This is cautiously optimistic good news with respect to where the world is today, compared to where we thought we might be.

“The 2ºC target from Paris remains within reach”.

The most commonly used scenarios, called the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), were developed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) starting in 2005.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that followed, starting in 2010, were meant as an update. Together, the two sets of scenarios inform the IPCC’s fifth and forthcoming sixth assessment reports.

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