The deployment of thousands of American troops to the Middle East is intensifying speculation over a potential potential US military operation against Iran, with one of the key questions focusing on the potential targets of such a move.

One scenario under consideration involves the seizure of Kharg Island, a critical energy hub in the northern Persian Gulf through which roughly 90% of Tehran’s oil exports pass. However, analysts note that other islands may be even more strategically significant, as they directly impact maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Seven islands — Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Hengam, Qeshm, Larak and Hormuz — form what researchers describe as Iran’s “defensive arc,” according to CNN. A 2022 study found that their geographic positioning allows Tehran to effectively control shipping lanes in the strait, as large vessels and oil tankers are forced to pass close to them due to shallow waters.

Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands are considered particularly critical, as they can serve as launch points for attacks by fast boats operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, as well as for mine-laying operations or drone strikes. Iranian officials have described these islands as “unsinkable aircraft carriers,” underscoring their strategic importance.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has already reinforced its presence on these islands, with its commander stating that Iran has the capability to strike enemy bases, ships and targets across the region.

According to analysts, for the United States to ensure safe naval passage in the Gulf — particularly in the event of an amphibious operation targeting Kharg Island — it would first need to neutralize Iranian positions on these islands.

Approximately 5,000 troops have already been placed on standby, including Marine units and around 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Two amphibious units could reportedly be deployed to achieve “overwhelming force.”

Troop deployment could take place either by sea or by air. Amphibious operations would involve specialized vessels capable of approaching shorelines, though entering the Gulf carries significant risks, as forces would have to pass through areas under Iranian control, including the islands of Hormuz, Larak, Qeshm and Hengam, as well as Iran’s mainland coastline.

Analysts highlight Larak Island, located at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, as a particularly crucial target, as Iran could use it to strike vessels attempting to enter the Gulf.

Alternatively, the US could opt for airborne troop deployment, though this would mean reduced equipment on the ground, while aircraft would be vulnerable to air defense systems.

Estimates suggest that an operation to seize the islands could last anywhere from two days to two weeks. If successful, it would allow the United States to install radar systems and deploy military forces, gaining control over activity in the Strait and denying Iran key operational bases.

However, maintaining control of these islands would require a permanent force of approximately 1,800 to 2,000 troops, who would remain exposed to missile, drone and artillery attacks from Iranian territory.

At the same time, US and Israeli forces have already launched strikes on Iranian military facilities, including infrastructure on islands such as Abu Musa and the Tunbs, potentially preparing the ground for future operations.

Military options are also accompanied by political challenges. Abu Musa and the Tunb islands have been disputed between Iran and the United Arab Emirates since 1971, when Iran took control of them. The UAE has raised the issue at the United Nations and has not ruled out taking the case to the International Court of Justice.

In this context, a potential US seizure of the islands raises complex dilemmas: returning them to Iran could trigger tensions with the UAE, while handing them to another party could undermine the stability of any future Iranian government.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump announced a 10-day extension to the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushing it to April 6 in order to allow time for negotiations. The US Secretary of State said progress has been made, while the Secretary of Defense made clear that military operations are continuing.

Developments in the Persian Gulf suggest that control over key geographic points, such as the islands in the Strait of Hormuz, could prove critical, with any military option carrying significant costs, risks and geopolitical consequences.