Oil is not just a commodity. It represents a market that’s worth more than 3.5 trillion dollars and it has complex geostrategic implications. Oil prices have been on the downward spiral for the past few days, lingering near 55 dollars while Brent oil dropped at 61 dollars. Analysts foresee no end to dropping oil prices, and estimate that they may sink to 50 or even 40 dollars a barrel.
What does this mean for Greece?
The plunge in international oil prices brings a series of benefits for the consumers. Until now, the savings in energy costs worldwide exceed one trillion dollars. Greek consumers buy their gasoline at a 20%-25% lower price than last year and heating oil is much cheaper.
The average price of unleaded gasoline at the moment is near 1.42 euros per liter and the price of heating oil is around 95 cents (60 cents for heating allowance beneficiaries).
According to Fitch a 20% fall in oil prices will boost the level of global GDP by around 0.3% over two year, while, according to Moody’s analysts, if crude prices decline an average of $25 a barrel, typical households could save $500 over the next year. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that the average value of airline tickets will be cheaper by 5.1% in 2015 compared to 2014. On the other hand, the shares of the energy industry worldwide have lost more than 700 billion dollars.
However, there are some who think that this downward trend will soon be over and the price of oil will rebound to around $90 per barrel. Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, expects this to happen within a year.
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