Presidents Joe Biden and Xí Jìnpíng are scheduled to hold talks today, and will discuss “managing the competition between our two countries as well as Russia’s war against Ukraine and other issues of mutual concern.”

The surprise bilateral phone call was announced as German tabloid Bild reported that Lavrov was halfway to Beijing when his plane suddenly returned to Moscow (although other outlets have not confirmed Lavrov’s U-turn as of this writing). U.S. officials earlier in the week had warned that China had already decided to send economic aid to Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. The bilateral phone call and Lavrov’s potential U-turn are possibly tied to Beijing’s potential economic (and, less likely, military) assistance for Russia.

If Beijing extends economic or — especially — military aid to Moscow before a peace agreement over Ukraine is reached, its bilateral relationships with Washington and Brussels will likely deteriorate to new lows. There are signs that economic pressures and military setbacks have led Putin to scale back war aims and potentially even consider some sort of peace agreement. Any P.R.C. economic assistance for Moscow could therefore give Putin a freer hand to extend the conflict. If Beijing delivers aid to Putin at this critical moment, then it will have definitively chosen Russia over Europe and the rest of the West.

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