Hello, now we knew it, we wrote about it, but who believed us? Stefanos is still here, but it’s like he’s not here at all; poor guy got swallowed up by vested interests. Even the last “pillars” of Democracy—Liagas and Kainourgiou, who supported him—have started to…waver, kind of erased him. Sure, Stefanos is leading in polls for the SYRIZA internal elections, with around 50%, but even if they let him run, the rest would leave, leaving the party teetering around 3-4%. Meanwhile, the diabolical Priesthood (according to the lyricist) has orchestrated the leader’s defeat at the Conference, and all that’s left is to throw some yogurt at him a la Beleri style, to utterly humiliate him, those scoundrels, but you can expect anything from people like them. Anyway, keep in mind that Kasselakis will either find some funds and start his own party, or his short-lived political adventure will end, and we’ll be left without a lead for this comedy.

New kid in town

On the other hand, Stefanos leaves, and Nikos A. arrives. The new PASOK leader is in his prime, everywhere, scoring 20% in polls and getting nearly half an hour on primetime news (impressive, right?). Yesterday, he was on Alpha, getting ultra-extra treatment, and afterward, he stayed for a drink with the journalists. They just didn’t bring out the master chef to cook for him. Nikos is the chosen one to go “against” Mitsotakis. Place your bets…

Dress rehearsal for “Tzitzi”…

Now in government matters, much of the discussion yesterday between Kyriakos Mitsotakis and ND’s MEPs was about the upcoming hearing for Tzitzikostas at the European Parliament for the position of Commissioner of Transport. K.M. was asking if the new commissioner is sufficiently prepared, and Greece’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Yiannis Vrailas, who was linked in, said that the team has provided all the support and sample questions to ensure he’s well-prepared. I hear that at the end of last week, Apostolos even did the rehearsal he’s entitled to at the European Parliament for the procedure. He will be the first to go through a hearing, so a positive start is essential. I spoke with one of my European sources, who mentioned that to pass, he’ll need two-thirds of the votes in the Transport Committee, meaning at least 30 out of 44 MEPs. The forecast is that the EPP, Socialists, Liberals, and at least the European Conservatives will vote for him, so there won’t be issues.

Rama

Serious annoyance in Athens has been caused by Edi Rama’s disgraceful behavior, who “slammed the door” yesterday on Freddy Beleri, who had come to Tirana as a representative of the European Parliament. While he refused to meet with the EPP MEP, Rama was meeting “in secret” with the other visiting MEPs at the hotel where they were staying, who belonged to the Socialist group. And all this just days before he’s due back in Greece for a pre-election spectacle—he’s expected on November 3, in Thessaloniki. I say we should find a nice way for this “fascistoid” to never come, so we can be done with it.

Some “Appetites”…

I hear that the sudden appearance of illegal immigrants in the center of Rhodes is due to a miscalculation(?) by the Ministry of Migration Policy and specifically by Ms. Lygoura, General Secretary, who seems to be drifting from department to department in the ministries, without particular success. So, I predict we’ll have…news in the upcoming cabinet reshuffle, whenever that may happen. Let me remind you that Ms. Lygoura first appeared in the Ministry of Citizen Protection as Secretary of Anti-Crime Policy (meaning prisons), because as a prominent member of M.M. (now former) told me, the lady is also an inventor. When I, poor me, asked “What did Ms. Lygoura invent?” to get such a sensitive position as “traffic controller” in prisons, the (former) source said she created an algorithm that would automatically—without human intervention—assign inmates to the “correct correctional facilities to prevent cliques and problems.” Sort of like an automatic Aravantinos, if you get my drift. Maybe she took that application with her, and instead of sending migrants to Athens, she sent them to Rhodes?

HELECTOR-MOH: No hidden hand…

To set the record straight and because many rumors are floating around in the market, I looked into this with Motor Oil, ELLAKTOR, and my source in M.M. All confirm categorically that there is no manipulation or anything unusual behind the start of a full investigation into the HELECTOR acquisition deal by a Motor Oil subsidiary, initiated by the Competition Commission. The Commission always refers such deals to competitors. If a competitor raises an objection, the Commission is legally required to conduct a full investigation, with a deadline of up to 90 days to decide.

Conditional approval for the consortium on Thriasio II

And since we’re talking about the Competition Commission, let’s mention that today the Commission is expected to announce conditional approval for the establishment of a consortium between DAMCO ENERGY of the Kopelouzos Group and Hellenic Train for the Thriasio II project. This involves designing and constructing a modern freight terminal, and for the record, this case had been subject to a full investigation by the Competition Commission.

No one is eager for the railway’s electric chair

And since we’re on the Greek railway, I don’t need to say that it’s the weakest link among public transportation means, though that doesn’t imply the situation in buses and the metro is ideal. That’s why the streamlining of transportation is at the top of the government’s priority list—and not by chance, as it’s where government policy effectiveness is tested daily. However, the negative image and chronic weaknesses of the railway make its critical positions feel like an electric chair! This is confirmed by the effort to find capable personnel both for OSE and for the Regulatory Authority for Railways (RAS), as the term of the current board and President Ioanna Tsiaparikou, appointed under SYRIZA, has expired. As a government source recently said, “I’ve knocked on countless doors of scientists and academics who could meet the requirements, but no one seems willing!” Regarding RAS, the issue is also concerning the Maximos Mansion, as since the Tempe incident, the role and significance of the Regulatory Authority for Railways in the Greek railway have become evident.

They’ve started rehearsals for Black Friday (in long version)

The big retail chains are doing a “rehearsal” for Black Friday, which, it seems, will start much earlier than late November and will drag on…and on. Late last night, Kotsovolos ran a three-hour online-only sale, mainly to test the endurance of its systems before the big “battle” of retail begins. A few days earlier, Public did something similar, while Plaisio is also, as we hear, feverishly preparing to be ready for the most crucial commercial period for the three major electronics chains. This is because in the November–December stretch, they have been doing 30% of their annual turnover in recent years!

The next “stop” for Astir Marina

Around mid-November, as we hear, the next big “arrival” is expected at Astir Marina Vouliagmeni. This concerns Bagatelle, the famed luxury chain of French restaurants and beach clubs, which has venues in select destinations, from Courchevel, London, Miami, and Doha, to St. Barths, St. Tropez, Dubai, Riyadh, Bodrum, Mexico City, and Mykonos. Currently, work on setting up the venue is progressing at a feverish pace, under the supervision of Astir Palace CEO Penny Zaglaridou, who says she had the decisive help of the Mayor of the “three Bs,” Grigoris Konstantellos, who has supported the investment from the very beginning. Together, they managed in just a few months to position Astir Marina at the forefront of elite yachting worldwide. We only need mention the “big names” of luxury fashion houses making their presence felt, like Louis Vuitton, Loro Piana, Dior, Gucci, Bottega Veneta, Saint Laurent, Zegna, and others, as well as the renowned Milanese patisserie-restaurant Cova, where there’s a daily parade of the rich and famous.

The vineyards of Navarino

The strategic partnership between TEMES – Premia Properties – Hellenic Wineries for “Navarino Vineyards” has entered the implementation phase, an investment aimed at increasing production (to over 300,000 bottles, from today’s 50,000) and establishing a new winery. As part of the deal, Premia Properties agreed to acquire, through a capital increase, 50% of “Vineyards Navarino – Navarino Vineyards S.A.,” which was previously a 100% subsidiary of TEMES S.A. Premia Properties has already paid 1.75 million euros, with the remaining capital increase of 2.32 million euros to be paid within 24 months. The Costa Navarino vineyards are located near Mouzaki, Trifylia, at an altitude of 400–600 meters, covering an area of approximately 600 acres. The investment aims to implement the TEMES (Constantakopoulos – Olayan groups) plan for the development of wine tourism, while Premia Properties – Hellenic Wineries (Sterner Stenhus) intends to produce high-quality Greek wine and promote it abroad. According to recent data, Hellenic Wineries S.A. (parent company of Boutari Winery and IOLI Spring) achieved sales of 18.5 million euros in 2023, with pre-tax profits exceeding 1.6 million euros.

The Grand Hyatt Athens deal

With the establishment of a new company, Acropolis Bidco S.A., on October 29, the major deal for the acquisition of the 5-star Grand Hyatt Athens by investment giant Blackstone is complete. Specifically, the luxury hotel on Syngrou Avenue will now be owned by Hotel Investment Partners (HIP), one of the leading hotel owners in Southern Europe, belonging to the Blackstone Group. The agreement was announced by the Competition Commission in late September, involving the acquisition of “Syngrou 115 Hotel Enterprises S.A.” by Blackstone Inc. The well-known hotel, now expanded to the neighboring property, has 548 rooms and suites, restaurants, bars, indoor and outdoor pools, large event and conference halls, a spa, and more. Previously owned by Hines and Henderson Park, the deal closed at 230 million euros. For recent updates, Acropolis Bidco S.A. was established with its headquarters on Kifisias Avenue in Halandri, with share capital of 48.4 million euros. This is distributed in 48,400,000 nominal shares, each valued at 1 euro, fully covered by the founding shareholder “Acropolis Holdco S.á r.l.,” headquartered in Luxembourg City. It’s noted that the capital “will be deposited in a company bank account or, alternatively, if the company assumes the role of buyer in the contract signed by its founding shareholder with the foreign company ‘HPH S115 (Greece) Holdings S.À R.L.’ on 02.10.2024 (for purchasing shares in ‘Syngrou 115 Hotel Enterprises S.A.’), it will be paid, pursuant to Article 20(3) of Law 4548/2018, by the founding shareholder, in the name and on behalf of the company as buyer, as the purchase price payable to the seller for the specified shares, specifically: – through the transfer of 23.5 million euros already paid by the founding shareholder into the escrow account specified in the aforementioned share purchase agreement, which will be transferred to the seller’s bank account, and – through the transfer of 24.9 million euros from the above founding shareholder into a bank account designated by the seller for the settlement of an equivalent portion of the share purchase price specified in the aforementioned share sale and purchase agreement. Alejandro Hernández-Puértolas, CEO of Hotel Investment Partners, was appointed Chairman and CEO of the “new” Acropolis Bidco S.A. It’s worth noting that HIP owns 73 hotels with 21,831 rooms in top tourist destinations in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal. In Greece, it already operates the 5-star Domes Aulūs in Elounda and Atlantica Ocean Beach Resort in Crete, Domes Noruz in Kassandra, Chalkidiki, Domes of Corfu, and Dreams Corfu Resort & Spa in Corfu, as well as Domes Aulūs and Alua Soul in Zakynthos, with a total capacity of 1,709 rooms.

Another extension for the Gonos former camp auction

The deadline for submitting investor proposals for the development of a major Business Park—a modern combined transport logistics center—on the property of the former Gonos Camp in western Thessaloniki was initially set for November 15. However, in recent days, the Project Preparation Facility (PPF) of TAIPED faced intense pressure from many interested investors. It was ultimately decided to grant a one-month extension, now set for December 15, to allow prospective parties more time to prepare for the investment in the former Gonos Camp. Reports indicate that TAIPED requested a 45-day extension, but it was finally agreed that December 15 is the ideal date. Last week, the TAIPED Executive Director P. Stamboulidis said at a conference that there is strong market interest and that the extensions are intended to ensure maximum competition to benefit the asset’s utilization.

Seeking tranquility

After five consecutive declines that cost the General Index -3.68% and over 7% for banks, yesterday’s session provided relief for investors watching share prices bought during public offerings fall short of expectations. To date, October’s return for the General Index is negative (down 5%) and only comparable to the very poor September of 2023 with losses of -7.96%. Yesterday, National Bank made a stand, with high trading volume, trying to stay close to the €7.55 placement price, finally closing with a gain of +2.98% at 7.264 euros. The show-stealer was Alpha Bank’s large block (worth €28.9 million), which closed with a gain of +1.54% at 1.422 euros. Eurobank also helped with +2.55% at 1.928 euros, while Piraeus contributed less (+0.6%) at 3.572 euros. Neglected Cenergy tried to recall its placement price with a +2.57% rise to 8.77 euros. Altogether, these helped bring the General Index back to the safe stronghold of 1,400 points, closing at 1,401.18 points with +0.79%. Trading value brought back memories of the good old days, reaching 182 million euros, with package deals worth 56 million euros, particularly those of Alpha and TERNA Energy, valued at 1.96 million euros. We frequently refer to bank stocks since they, even yesterday, accounted for 67% of total transaction value. Elsewhere on the board, some other stocks (excluding Coca-Cola) rebounded, including TITAN, ELLAKTOR, JUMBO, OTE, PPC, and Motor Oil, though with relatively low trading volume. The final takeaway is that our market is brave only when it doesn’t see a strong institutional investor liquidating—for their own reasons—their portfolio. Today is the last trading day for Attica Bank’s capital increase rights, which closed at 182.5 euros (+28.98%) with a volume of 480 shares, while the same bank’s stock remained at 6 euros.

End of an era for VIVECHROM

Makis Provatas, long-serving CEO of AkzoNobel’s Greek subsidiary, has stepped down. He also held the role of head of the multinational’s paint operations in Southeastern Europe. He is succeeded by Benn Shaun from South Africa, with a career mainly in African markets.

Oil prices are falling, but not natural gas…

Oil prices on the international markets keep sliding continuously and have lost 20% over the last six months. On the contrary, natural gas prices remain high. The World Bank is talking about an oil surplus and estimates that gasoline and food prices will fall significantly over the next two years. The World Bank explains that this year’s downward trend in oil prices comes from increased production, reduced demand in China, and the shift to clean energy. This trend is expected to continue even if the conflict in the Middle East worsens, according to the World Bank, because global oil supply will exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day, reducing prices from an average of $80 per barrel for Brent crude this year to $73 per barrel in 2025 and $72 per barrel in 2026. If the World Bank’s forecasts prove true, we may finally see food prices falling along with the average prices of global commodities. Yesterday, at any rate, oil prices seemed to be balancing around the $70 per barrel mark, with Brent at $71.6 and WTI at $67.5 per barrel.

Will Santa Claus come to Wall Street this year?

Custom, statistics, and stock market history from…1928 to the present, show that the last quarter of the year is always the best for Wall Street stock markets. Goldman Sachs has calculated that the average return of the S&P 500 index for the period from October 27 to December 31 is +5.22% since 1928. Especially in election years, the average return of the S&P 500 from October 27 to December 31 rises to +6.25% since 1928. The average return of the technology index Nasdaq 100 (NDX), from October 27 to December 31 is +11.74%, but data for this particular index has been tracked only since 1985… Of course, the big question is what will happen this year, in a year when the 10-year bond is offering a risk-free return of 4.23% and gold is trading at record highs of $2,780…