One of the most uncertain election battles of all time in the United States appears to be headed for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, just three 24 hours before the crucial vote. Even the pollsters, moreover, seem to be… throwing their hands up, as almost all polls give a lead to one candidate or the other, bordering on statistical error.

At the end of another tense week, which began with Trump’s racially charged rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden and… punctuated by counter-arguments, misogynistic comments and insults about “trash” hurled left and right, the Guardian’s 10-day average poll tracker showed little change from seven days earlier, with voters’ “loyalty” to their chosen candidate seeming relatively unaffected by the events of the campaign.

Nationally, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has a one-point lead, 48% to 47%, over her Republican opponent, nearly identical to last week’s lead. Such an advantage is within the margin of error of most polls.

The crucial states also remain in deadlock. Candidates are tied at 48% in Pennsylvania, often considered the most important state because it has the most electoral votes (19). Harris has a one-point lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads narrowly, by 1% in North Carolina and by 2% in Georgia and Arizona. In Nevada, his average lead in the polls is less than a percentage point.

According to Politico, which notes that more than 66 million people have already voted, it’s hard to predict anything about the early voting results. However, about 58% of early voters in Pennsylvania, aged 65 and older, were registered Democrats, compared to 35% of the same group who were registered Republicans. About 53% voted for Trump in Pennsylvania in 2020, even though he lost the state to Joe Biden.

Trump, unlike four years ago, encouraged his supporters to vote early. The fact that Democrats are turning out in larger numbers may be a positive sign for them in a benchmark state where commentators have predicted that turnout is key to the outcome. Democratic strategic analysts have argued that they have a 10%-20% lead in turnout among older voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The odds of victory

The simulator on polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight – based on a collection of national and state-by-state data – predicted Friday morning that Trump would win 53 times out of 100 to 47 for Harris, again similar to last week.

On the flip side, polls in Pennsylvania today, Saturday, led to Kamala Harris increasing her chances of being the next president by four percentage points, according to the Economist’s model. As it stands, the Democratic candidate is winning 52 times out of 100, while the Republican candidate is winning 48 out of 100.

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