British-Canadian computer scientist, often referred to as the “father” of artificial intelligence, Jeffrey Hinton, has warned that the chances of AI leading to the extinction of humanity within the next three decades have increased.

Hinton, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics this year for his contribution to the development of AI, estimated that there is a 10% to 20% chance that the technology will cause catastrophic consequences for humanity.

In an interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today program, Hinton said the speed of technology’s development was “much faster” than he had expected. When asked if he had revised his estimates, he replied: “Not particularly, 10% to 20%.”

Former Finance Minister Sajid Javid, who hosted the program, commented that the odds seem to be increasing, with Hinton agreeing: “If anything, yes. We’ve never had to manage anything smarter than us.”

Hinton explained that human intelligence will resemble that of a small child compared to the intelligence of powerful AI systems. “Think of yourself in relation to a three-year-old child. We will be the three-year-old children,” he said.

Hinton sparked global interest last year when he resigned his position at Google to speak more openly about the dangers of unchecked AI growth. Since then, he has expressed strong concerns about the use of the technology by “malicious actors” and the potential for general AI systems to escape human control, posing an existential threat.

Reflecting on the evolution of artificial intelligence, Hinton said he did not expect the technology to have reached its current level so quickly. “The situation now is that most experts in the field believe that within the next two decades, we will probably develop AI that is smarter than humans. And that’s a very scary thought.”

Hinton called for government regulation of the technology, arguing that reliance on the “invisible hand” of the market and the profit motive is not enough to ensure its safe development. “The only force that can compel large companies to invest more in security is government regulation,” he said.

Despite Hinton’s concerns, other experts, such as Jan LeCune, chief AI scientist at Meta, have a different view. LeCune said AI “may actually save humanity from extinction,” reducing concern about existential threats.