Hello, from what I have learned, on the 17th of the month, the discussion on the preliminary investigation committee for Tempi will take place in Parliament. In the meantime, the videos showing the empty train cars are already being examined (by court order) and are even being double-checked because they are also stored on a security company’s server in Athens, so soon there will be a safe and reliable conclusion. So, let’s see what will come out of the official findings of the Authorities, and then we’ll discuss it again.

Kyriakos and Emmanuel…

Mitsotakis and Macron have an old relationship, as they have both been leading their countries for the past few years and can communicate directly without issues. Greek-French relations sometimes have ups and downs, but at their core, they are strategic, and we have had our strong moments in the past—after all, let’s be honest, we have spent quite a lot on them, from the Rafale to the Belhara; they should have no complaints. So, while the government leak did not include a reference to the METEOR missiles that Turkey wants for the Eurofighter, it is not that the issue was not discussed. In fact, Mitsotakis, although he did not want to comment on it publicly, hinted that something positive might come from his contact with the French president. Macron told K.M. that France understands and shares the Greek arguments, but it is not the only player in this matter (MBDA includes, beyond Airbus, the British BAE and the Italian Leonardo). Now, hearing what Macron supposedly said, I find it hard to believe that the French president was telling the truth and was not just pretending to be uninvolved.

AI

Apart from that, I am told that the atmosphere in Paris was positive for Greece during K.M.’s meetings with the CEO of Ericsson Group, with Hassabis from DeepMind, and with senior executives of OpenAI (the initial meeting was scheduled with Sam Altman, who ultimately did not come to Paris). The common thread was the interest in Greek human capital, which is of excellent quality and competitively priced. At his tech meetings, K.M. was accompanied by the Digital Governance duo Papastergiou-Kyranakis and the government’s AI Committee coordinator, Giannis Mastrogeorgiou.

The Parade of Americans

Let me inform you that beyond U.S. Vice President Vance, who arrived in Paris yesterday afternoon for the Artificial Intelligence Conference (today he will speak at the leaders’ forum and meet with VDL and the EU High Representative, Kallas), we will have more arrivals soon. In the coming days, the new U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, will arrive in Europe. On Thursday, he will participate in the NATO Defense Ministers’ Summit in Brussels (Dendias will be present, who these days is once again in the U.S.). Finally, the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, will in turn come on Friday for the Berlin Conference. With all this, I think it will be difficult for K.M. to cancel his presence in the Bavarian capital.

The EPP Vice President

From Brussels, I received information that two Greek politicians want to run for vice president at the European People’s Party Congress in April: Meimarakis and Tzitzikostas. There are 10 positions, and ND can certainly claim one. I am told that each does not know about the other’s interest, and in any case, it is crucial whom K.M. will choose to support when the issue arises.

Sarakiniko

As the days go by, it is becoming increasingly clear that beyond any general issues of legislative gaps emerging in the case of Sarakiniko in Milos (such as the Local Urban Plan, Protection Zones for Areas of Natural Beauty, etc.), it is evident that there is also the necessary local entanglement. The owner of the land in Sarakiniko bought it from a candidate municipal councilor of the mayor, while the urban planner-prefect naturally knew that she was granting a permit for a hotel in Sarakiniko. Now that the National Transparency Authority will check the permits—whether the forestry department did its job correctly, whether the environmental study was conducted properly, whether archaeology went on-site to mark trenches, whether there was a recognized road in front of the plot, etc.—mark my words, they will find many more violations or “negligences,” meaning that not all licensing checks were conducted properly. Don’t you find it completely natural that when such serious matters are decided within local communities, they may ultimately end up in… friendly arrangements and not just that? However, if in this case, which has truly outraged everyone, there are violations and the Prosecutor of Syros calls them in for “further action,” they may put a stop to it, but then again, after a few months, somewhere… else in Greece, the local wheeling and dealing will start again. For now, we are waiting to see what the responsible minister, Skylakakis, will do, as well as M.M., who is also involved in the matter.

Snakes

So, I think that the financial prosecutor investigating the findings on the Attica Region and EDSNA… won’t have any work since Patoulis gave a convincing response yesterday. The former regional governor, commenting on our publication, which revealed that “over four years, 5.5 million euros were spent on snake and rodent repellent,” said: “Especially on public health issues, the Attica Region had particular sensitivity and the highest priority in addressing them. It collaborated with reputable scientific bodies, such as EKPA, EODY, and particularly for mosquito spraying (for the West Nile virus), rodent control, etc., with the Benaki Phytopathological Institute, which resulted in zero deaths of our fellow citizens in recent years from this cause.” So, as you understand, with the new EDSNA administration, which spent only 30,000 euros annually for the same work, we’ll be eaten alive by snakes!

The National’s stake in the Insurance Company and the SSM

Information indicates that within the 70% stake in Ethniki Asfalistiki that Piraeus Bank will acquire, the 9.9% currently held by National Bank is included. According to the agreement between National Bank and CVC, in the event of a sale by the private equity firm, National Bank is obliged to sell its stake at the same valuation as CVC. At the same time, Piraeus Bank has submitted a request to the SSM for the use of the Danish Compromise provisions for the acquisition of Ethniki Asfalistiki, aiming to limit the impact on its capital, and is awaiting a response, which requires considerable time. The market, in general, is keeping expectations low regarding the supervisory authority’s response.

Fais Group prepares for the Stock Exchange

The Fais Group is intensifying preparations for its upcoming entry into the Stock Exchange. Initial contacts have already been made with banks, institutions, underwriters, and supervisory authorities, aiming for the public share offering for the H.A. listing to take place in March. In recent years, the group has expanded its business activities by creating distinct business units for the distribution of sports apparel and wellness equipment, footwear and accessories, premium & lifestyle fashion products, cosmetics, commercial real estate development, hospitality, and more. In the retail sector, it operates standalone flagship stores as well as corner shops in all major department stores, outlets, and e-commerce platforms in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, and more recently in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Today, it represents over 100 brands in the Greek market, with sales exceeding 200 million euros last year. Through its listing on the H.A., Fais Group aims to enhance its recognition both domestically and internationally, while it is estimated to seek to raise capital in the range of 50-60 million euros.

Arbitrage on TITAN stock

It had been a long time (perhaps years) since TITAN’s stock had seen a trading volume of 118,863 shares on the Athens Stock Exchange. However, now that its subsidiary is trading on Wall Street, where stock transactions are significantly higher than those on the Athens Stock Exchange or Euronext Brussels, an opportunity for quick arbitrage moves in the parent company’s stock price is emerging. In New York, the stock trades near 17 dollars, but various factors now come into play, such as the euro-dollar exchange rate, growth prospects, and taxation, creating opportunities for interesting market moves. In yesterday’s session, this entire game led to a -1.84% drop in the stock, settling at 45 euros, which keeps the Group’s market capitalization above 3.5 billion euros.

Metlen: Investment Banks and Fairfax

Stock-wise, the news that Bank of America is initiating coverage of Metlen is of particular significance. Not so much for the target price but for the coverage itself, which comes after those of Citi and Morgan Stanley. The more major investment banks cover a stock, the more visible it becomes to international institutional portfolios. This coincided with Fairfax increasing its stake to 6.5%, making it the second-largest shareholder of Metlen, resulting in the stock closing up 2.43%.

Avax, the scenarios, and reality

The market capitalization of construction group Avax has exceeded 290 million euros. The stock price (+4.59% yesterday) at 1.96 euros is approximately 41% higher than six months ago. The stock’s upward movement fueled market rumors about a strategic alliance and similar speculations. However, reliable sources familiar with the developments stated that the rumors of a strategic alliance are not true, that nothing of the sort exists, and attributed the stock’s rise to it approaching reasonable valuation levels. The price is nearing 2 euros, while two reports value Avax’s stock at around 3 euros, with three more analyst reports expected to have valuations in the 3-euro range. Additionally, Avax had a superb 2023 with a 150% rise and a bad 2024 with an 18% drop. Despite the stock rally, the price today is slightly above the 1.86-euro level of December 31, 2023, while still lagging behind sector valuations.

Pressures on Viohalco group stocks

Since yesterday morning, the market has been circulating the “estimate” that the new tariffs and taxes the U.S. government will impose on all steel and aluminum imports will directly and dramatically affect Cenergy, ElvalHalcor, and ultimately their parent company Viohalco. The truth is that the total activities of the Viohalco Group in the American continent account for only 5% of total turnover. However, this truth did not prevent an easy short-selling game on all three listed group stocks, with ElvalHalcor down 1.98%, Cenergy down 2.03%, and Viohalco down 1.75%.

“Attack” on two brokerage firms

The auditors of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission launched a simultaneous “attack” on two brokerage firms yesterday. Reports indicate that the “visits” were part of an investigation into stock transactions that experienced a sudden surge. On a related note, the internal organization of the Capital Market Commission is progressing. Its website has published the Internal Audit Operating Regulation, while at the next board meeting, the Ethics Regulation for Internal Auditors is expected to be approved.

Mature decline in an uncertain environment

Many winners in the Athens Stock Exchange have every reason to be cautious and cash in some of their gains at every whisper or market tremor. The good news is that these moves are made with maturity and composure. Those who want to exit do so, and there are always those eager to board for the future. Despite major European markets reacting calmly and with an upward trend to President Trump’s “tariff game,” Athens moved downward yesterday with moderate liquidations, which, however, found buying interest. The General Index dropped as much as 0.73%, but buyers quickly emerged, halving the losses, and the index eventually closed at 1,551.90 points (-0.38%). Transaction value remained contained at 115.96 million euros. Banks did not help, so the General Index’s resilience was attributed to Metlen (+2.43%), Piraeus Port Authority (+2.23%), HelleniQ Energy (+1.32%), and Sarantis (+1.23%).

The Piraeus Port Authority rally

With buyers absent from banks and high-cap stocks, it was mid-caps’ turn to stand out and put the brakes on sellers’ appetite for widespread liquidations on the Athens Stock Exchange. Four of them even hit new records. Kri Kri climbed to an all-time high of 16.4 euros, and Piraeus Port Authority exceeded 32 euros, reaching a new 17-year high, aiming for the all-time record of January 3, 2008 (32.94 euros). Quest expanded its 19-month high, approaching 6.5 euros, while Fourlis set a new 11-month record, closing near 4.3 euros. Among the heavyweight stocks, only Public Power Corporation stood its ground, extending its 15-year high.

The absence of key players, the talkative escort, and the 500 GW queue

Those expecting to see the keffiyeh-clad executives of Masdar at last Friday’s annual wind energy industry gala at Ktima Vorre were likely disappointed. Despite the Arabs’ gold sponsorship of the grand annual event for onshore wind power alongside PPC and Motor Oil, Terna Energy was represented by CEO Manolis Maragoudakis. Notable was the absence of George Peristeris, who had never missed an ELETAEN event before. Other regular attendees missing included Dimitris Kopelouzos, PPC Renewables CEO Konstantinos Mavros, IPTO CEO Manos Manusakis, and politically, Finance Minister Kostis Hatzidakis, who traditionally attends. However, the highlight of this year’s evening was Deputy Energy Minister Alexandra Sdoukou, not only for her elegant black lace dress, setting a festive tone but also for her young escort. Her six-year-old son not only took the microphone to wish the attendees a “Happy New Year” but also delivered a political message, saying that we need to install more wind turbines because they provide cheaper electricity! Meanwhile, Sdoukou appeared more concerned about Europe’s wind energy targets and achievements. She noted that the EU is not moving quickly in developing new wind power. Last year, 13 GW were installed, whereas to meet green transition goals, about 30 GW should be installed annually. There are delays in the permitting process and in granting grid connection terms. The deputy minister even mentioned a staggering number of pending permits awaiting grid connection terms in the EU, totaling 500 GW!

Calatrava and the Velodrome are coming

Yesterday was the deadline for submitting bids for the renovation of the Calatrava roofs and the Velodrome. The tender “Structural and functional restoration of the two roofs of the Central Stadium and the Velodrome of the Olympic Athletic Center of Athens – OAKA” was prepared and conducted by the Strategic Contracts Unit (PPF) of the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations, with the assistance of the Technical Chamber of Greece. The project budget is 63 million euros, and it is noteworthy that despite concerns about the quality of the tender’s terms, no objections were filed regarding the tender documents. In the end, one bid was submitted, by METKA SA. The next step is to initiate the validation and unsealing procedures so that—if everything complies with the law—the contractor can be quickly announced and the project can be completed on time. The project is funded by the Recovery Fund and involves repairing problematic areas, restoring the necessary structural adequacy of the metal structures of the two emblematic roofs of OAKA, and maintaining, repairing, and replacing elements of the metal structures and polycarbonate panels of the stadium roofs.

Trump stopped producing cents

With the slogan “we cut government waste cent by cent,” President Trump ordered the U.S. Treasury Department to stop producing pennies. Each cent is worth $0.01, but its production costs… three cents ($0.03). This means the U.S. government spends $179 million annually to produce cents, which, of course, no one uses. Soon, copper pennies will become collectibles.

Powell’s first hearing in a Republican-majority Congress

Markets will learn a lot from the responses Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give tonight and tomorrow as he testifies before Congress for the first time since July. Powell’s testimony before the Republican majority follows the Fed’s decision to keep U.S. dollar interest rates steady in January after three consecutive cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation and the labor market. The Fed reduced rates by 100 basis points over three meetings before the end of last year. In January, the Fed voted to keep rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the president is now more focused on long-term interest rates (i.e., 10-year government bond yields) rather than the Fed’s short-term rates.