The mood in Berlin‘s Adenauer Haus, the headquarters of the German Christian Democrats, was predictably joyful yesterday, but not highly celebratory. The CDU along with the Bavarian Christian Socialists of the CSU had made a comeback to power after four years, but on the one hand the party’s share of the vote was not spectacular, and on the other the new balances forming in Germany are not conducive to celebration.

Friedrich Merz will apparently be the next Chancellor, but this is not a simple assumption. His party has failed to get the more than 30% it wanted to be the absolute ruler and be able to impose its positions with varying degrees of gravitas.

On the other hand, of course, given the collapse of the Social Democrats and the elimination of the Liberals from parliament, the Christian Democrats are the dominant “bourgeois” force. The party has managed to hold its “castles” in the West, South and North, though it has failed to stand up to the sweeping Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern states.

After the counting was completed, the percentages of the parties and the distribution of seats were as follows:

– Christian Union (CDU/CSU): 28.6% and 208 seats,
– Alternative for Germany (AfD): 20.8% and 152 seats,
– Social Democrats (SPD): 16.4% and 120 seats,
– Greens: 11.6% and 85 seats,
– Left (Die Linke): 8.8% and 64 seats,
– Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW): 4.97%.

Winners and losers

The result of yesterday’s elections in Germany reflects substantial breakthroughs in the country’s political system. First, it’s a straight defeat for the parties in the outgoing governing coalition: the Olaf Scholz’s SPD recorded its worst post-war result, the Greens lost almost three points and the Liberals were again voted out of parliament, as they were in 2013, when they were again the minor partner in Merkel’s government. Meanwhile, the new “elephant in the room” is the AfD party, which registered an impressive figure of just over 20%, just as the polls had predicted. Its result is clearly a political victory for its leaders who managed to “de-activate” it in the minds of many citizens; on the other hand, it did not achieve the 25% figure that some of its cadres – perhaps even Elon Musk – would have liked.

At the same time, the performance of the German Left is noteworthy, as it got almost 9%, won (overall) the state of Berlin and topped in the 18-24 age group, followed by the AfD. It was the older voters who gave the Christian Democrats a lead. Of note, the Liberals of Lindner, who also caused the fall of the government, are evaporating, and the former finance minister announced his retirement from active politics.

The Coalition

At a time when Europe is looking to Germany for leadership, Merz is reportedly willing to take on that role. In yesterday’s “elephant round”, the traditional discussion ZDF holds with party leaders after the exit polls, Merz said in no uncertain terms that the new US administration is not particularly interested in Europe, so Europe must take initiatives for itself.

The obvious government partner for Merz based on arithmetic (i.e. 316 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the German parliament) is the Social Democrats, but without Olaf Scholz, who will not participate in any discussions on forming a government. The outgoing chancellor is on track to resign as leader of his party, whose governing bodies are meeting in Berlin today. On the other hand, the Greens would like to join a governing coalition, but if their presence is not necessary, Merz would prefer to form a two-party government in an attempt to form a more flexible shape.

The surprise party that ultimately failed

The main criterion for the formation of the government, as protothema.gr had written in time, was the number of parties that would enter the parliament. Until the early hours of the morning, a thriller was underway with the party of Sara Wagenknecht, the BSW, finally failing to meet the 5% threshold for entry into the Bundestag.

Of note, throughout the evening the BSW was balancing between 4.9% and the 5% it first passed at 2am, but without incorporating constituencies from western Germany, where it did not have as much strength.

In any case, Merz announced yesterday that discussions on the new government would begin immediately, so that by Passover (this year Orthodox and Catholics coincide) a majority in the Bundestag would be in place. The exercise is certainly not easy, but the necessity is a given.