Protests in Turkey, especially in Istanbul and Ankara, show no signs of stopping. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) has called for new mass demonstrations outside Istanbul’s City Hall, drawing thousands to the streets once again.

Ekrem İmamoğlu remains “under detention” for a third day, with judicial authorities citing the ongoing investigation and the volume of new evidence as reasons for renewing the warrant.

The tension in Turkey’s two largest cities continues to escalate ahead of Sunday, when the country is expected to witness its largest protests since the 2013 Gezi Park demonstrations.

According to the indictment, even sources within the CHP acknowledge that the mayor of Istanbul is “one step away from prison.” The key question now is how and when the judiciary will decide to proceed with his trial.

İmamoğlu is set to become a symbol of the opposition’s struggle against the ruling AKP and President Erdoğan. He was already the frontrunner for the opposition’s presidential candidacy. However, this alone does not resolve the broader political challenges at hand. The CHP must now ensure it has a figure outside the “prison system” to represent its policies and political direction.

İmamoğlu will not be able to fulfill this role, and it remains uncertain whether Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş can step in. Although Yavaş is a well-recognized figure in Turkish politics—often polling ahead of İmamoğlu as a potential presidential candidate—there is always the possibility that he, too, could become the target of a future judicial investigation.

Given the current pace of developments, no one in the opposition can feel secure. Erdoğan’s system has long instilled fear not just within Turkish society but, more importantly, among his political rivals.

Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble

For the first time in years, Erdoğan himself is taking a significant risk. Even his political opponents acknowledge his sharp instincts and meticulous planning, but the arrest of İmamoğlu has triggered a wave of unrest whose full impact is yet to be measured.

In the coming months, Erdoğan must keep his political machine in a state of high alert while also finding a way to reverse his declining poll numbers. The challenge is immense, but Erdoğan has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to navigate political crises—especially in this arena.