Hello, we have almost reached May Day, so we all know what will happen starting Thursday, hopefully, meaning that most people will go for a four-day holiday. I think the weather is getting better too – we are heading for 25 degrees, warm – let’s not overcomplicate things, I am expecting a statement from Nikos about the most expensive May Day in history. In the meantime, before we get to our own matters, let me note that the photo of the Trump-Zelensky tête-à-tête at the Pope’s funeral may indeed prove to be “the photo of the year,” since now a deal for the end of the war seems quite, even very close, if one reads how far the three sides have gotten. Hopefully, we are close to finishing, although Putin is still negotiating hard.

OSE

Now to our own matters, today the new law for the trains is being presented at the Cabinet, you will have read that it significantly improves and modernizes the operation of the Organization itself, and we all hope – except for the opposition – that it also improves the safety of train transportation. I think that…something is happening. Now, let’s not repeat the obvious, that a new politician, Kyranakis, took over and we have seen or heard things happening at OSE that hadn’t been done in two years. My source told me – and I want to write it – that Staikouras…is now shouting that many of these things had been done during his time. And I simply ask, why didn’t you tell us, big guy, either you or the M.M.? Anyway, let’s hope the situation improves somehow and let’s move on…

Tempi

Maybe even today we will have judicial developments in the Tempi case. I am hearing from competent sources that the Appellate Investigator is now looking into political figures, after the testimonies of senior officials from the Ministry of Transport, regarding the non-execution of contract 717 (which should have been completed in 2016). Based on the data so far, there is no certainty of prosecutions, but since political figures are being mentioned, the case file will inevitably be forwarded to Parliament. The government has said that the Triantopoulos model will apply to other political figures if needed, so now the ball is in the opposition parties’ court, as they will have to draft an indictment for the establishment of a Preliminary Investigation Committee. It will be judged there whether this Committee will conduct a substantial evaluation or, given that this was not done earlier, will refer the case to the Judicial Council for further action.

Pierrakakis in the USA

Now I have some…lesser-known news from Pierrakakis’s visit to the IMF because what was highlighted, and logically so, was his meeting with the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besant, as well as with the highest-ranking Greek official and POTUS technology advisor Michael Kratsios, in addition to the Greek Minister’s presence at the meetings of the Summit. So, Pierrakakis along with Petralias, Argyrou (Mitsotakis’s economic advisor), and Tsakonas (of the Public Debt Management Agency) met with almost all the rating agencies, many banks, and the largest investment funds in the USA, at a time when, although there is global uncertainty, our country’s economic figures are impressively good. The four have formed a good team, and quite quickly too, and this is something that even M.M. people are saying.

The dinner with Georgieva and EU Finance Ministers

Also, Pierrakakis participated in a closed dinner last Wednesday between the Finance Ministers of the EU and the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, and of course I estimate that the…menu was Trump’s tariffs, which have literally frozen the world and are such difficult and complex matters that they cannot be resolved in the 90 days Trump has given.

Meetings with Mayors and Regional Governors

Today there is a Cabinet meeting from which, however, Theodoros Livanios will be absent, as from 10:00 AM (and for several hours) he will be meeting with the Board of Directors of KEDE (Municipalities) and ENPE (Regions) regarding the new law he wants to introduce, which abolishes the second round of local elections and gives citizens the possibility of an “alternative vote” that will be taken into account if the first choice does not “reach” the threshold for victory. The threshold has not yet been “settled” whether it will be slightly above 42% or 50% and will definitely require discussion. Reactions have already started, with the mayor of Athens, Haris Doukas, from the USA, accusing the government of attempting to prevent a repeat of what happened in 2023 in his case.

The issue of high prices

We stay with the Cabinet, as the issue of high prices continues to “burn,” perhaps constituting the biggest “thorn” for the government. Although not on the official agenda, a small discussion – briefing is expected regarding the planned upgrade of the Consumer Ombudsman and – of course – the restrictive measures that have been imposed for four years now on the market, with the “spearhead” being the cap on the profit margin for companies that produce, distribute, or trade basic goods. Since the problem has now mainly shifted since last year to services, as shown in the latest inflation figures where housing costs, with a 7% increase in March, continue to be the biggest issue, and food inflation is close to zero, market pressures to ease restrictive measures are intense. Despite various “leaks” in recent days about the possibility of not extending the measures after the 30th of the month, I am not at all sure that the government is ready to take another risk at this moment and will not follow the well-trodden path, that is, the extension of the measures’ validity, as it has done for four years, perhaps with a promise – maybe – of partial lifting… As for the Consumer Ombudsman, it is expected through legislative regulation to be upgraded and, apart from the well-known mediatory role it has today, it will be able to actively intervene in cases of violation of consumer rights.

The Capital Markets moment for Mytilineos Day in London

From the LSE, at Paternoster Square near St. Paul’s Cathedral in central London, the pulse of Greek industry will beat in a few hours. Today at 2:30 PM Greece time, Evangelos Mytilineos and top executives of Metlen’s management team will unfold the group’s vision and strategy for the coming period at the long-scheduled Capital Markets Day, in front of top international investors and analysts. In the spotlight will be the energy, metallurgy, and defense sectors, in which Metlen has been methodically organizing its strategy for many years, with developments justifying the investments and infrastructures it has developed. This is one of the two sectors where the head of the group is reserving surprises for shareholders and the international investment community, as new agreements are expected to be announced. The second sector is expected to be metallurgy, now building very strong foundations also in the field of critical raw materials, with gallium and germanium at the forefront. Mr. Mytilineos will also explain to investors the roadmap on which Metlen will double its profits, aiming for a new peak of 2 billion by 2028. The discussion will be opened and closed by the President and CEO, who will present the group’s strategy and the next reorganization moves under the motto “We’ve Done It Before… We’re Doing It Again.” In between, with modular presentations, Mr. Giannis Kalafatas, CEO of the energy sector, Dimitris Stefanidis, CEO of the metals sector, and Mr. Dinos Benroubi, Vice President and CEO of METKA ATE from the infrastructure and concessions sector, will take the baton. They will be followed by Eleftheria Kontogianni, Chief Financial Officer, who will talk about Metlen by the numbers, and Christos Gavalas, head of the group’s finance sector.

Green light for Piraeus Bank’s dividend

The first green light has been given by the SSM regarding the distribution of dividends by systemic banks for the 2024 fiscal year profits. This concerns Piraeus Bank, which — according to existing information — received the relevant approval last Friday. This approval serves as a precursor for the other approvals expected to follow, concerning the other three systemic banks. Piraeus Bank, as is known, is proceeding with the distribution of cash corresponding to 35% of the 2024 profits, which is valued at €373 million or approximately €0.298 per share. It is reminded that the bank plans, from this year’s profits and for the next years until 2028, to distribute 50% of its profits annually. According to the latest update of its financial calendar, the ex-dividend date will be May 26, while the payment will take place on the 30th of the same month.

LAMDA consolidates construction divisions

LAMDA Development is proceeding with the consolidation of the company’s entire construction division. The internal consolidation was decided by LAMDA’s management so that infrastructure projects, residential buildings, and the construction of shopping centers can be coordinated from a single center. Two executives are departing from LAMDA — resignations made voluntarily — one leaving for abroad and the other for personal reasons. These changes were noted in the market, although the staff turnover rate at LAMDA is 3%, meaning below the average of 5% seen in other companies. Since we are talking about LAMDA, it’s worth adding that all new residential projects (e.g., Little Athens) are progressing at great speed and are ahead of schedule.

Stathopoulos plays basketball…

Nikos Stathopoulos’ BC Partners is close to acquiring a significant stake, around 30%, in the Euroleague. Today in Istanbul, a Board of Governors meeting of the EL is scheduled to take place, and among the topics to be discussed (though it’s unknown if a final decision will be made) is the entry of BC Partners into the organization’s shareholding structure. The investment is estimated at €300 million.

…and Vakakis heads to Moldova with an Albanian billionaire

Mr. Samir Mane may not be widely known. However, Forbes magazine dedicated a cover to him, as he is the first — and only — billionaire of Albania, with a fortune estimated by Forbes at $1.4 billion thanks to investments in retail, real estate, and banking services. He owns the Tirana East Gate Mall, a 110,000 sqm shopping center that hosts major international brands, Tirana Bank, the fifth-largest bank in Albania, and the Neptun chain of stores, the largest in electronics. Albania is a country where Tolis Vakakis of JUMBO does not wish to operate with his own capital. However, he granted the franchise rights to Samir Mane, and today four large Jumbo stores operate in Albania. The cooperation went well because, according to reliable information, Samir Mane requested and received the franchise to open Jumbo stores in Moldova as well. The Jumbo Group — besides its own investments in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania with 89 stores — today has a presence with 40 additional stores carrying the JUMBO brand across 7 countries (Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Israel). Soon, therefore, in Moldova too, with Samir Mane as an ally.

Paulson’s gold

It was American billionaire John Paulson’s investment in gold that seems to have led him to liquidate other assets in order to acquire the liquidity needed to complete it. Now that the investment has been finalized, sources say that the asset sales are definitively stopping. Canadian company Barrick Gold is withdrawing from the Donlin Gold project in Alaska, selling its 50% stake for $1 billion to billionaire John Paulson and Novagold Resources. Paulson Advisory LLC acquires 80% of Barrick Gold’s stake in Donlin Gold, while Novagold buys the remaining 20%.

OPAP’s blocks and the golden dividend

Let’s move to the Stock Exchange now, where OPAP is showing a lot of activity. Over 0.5% of the company’s share capital changed hands within two days, while the group’s stock keeps breaking through its “ceiling,” closing at a 16-year high. On Friday, five blocks of 680,000 shares, worth €12.88 million, were traded. Combined with the 1.19 million shares worth €22.41 million traded on Thursday via the Athens Exchange, a total of nine blocks worth €35.3 million changed hands. Friday’s initial transactions took place at €18.95 (the closing price on April 24), one pre-arranged trade was made at €18.84 just before 2:00 p.m., when the stock dipped slightly, while one block went through during the auction at the closing price of €18.99. As for the stock, it took another step towards reaching the €19 milestone for the first time since June 2009. Tomorrow, there’s also a general assembly meeting, where shareholders are expecting the green light for a generous dividend of €0.80 per share.

The stock exchange held its ground

The Athens Stock Exchange showed resilience and held above the 1,700-point mark, aiming for a positive monthly performance, something that seemed quite difficult just a few weeks ago due to the turbulence triggered by Trump’s tariffs on global markets. If it does not fall below 1,685 points, April will mark the sixth consecutive rising month. A comparable rally hasn’t been seen since 2019. This achievement is even more noteworthy considering that the General Index had fallen by as much as 13.66% when it hit the year’s low of 1,455.08 points on April 7. Now, it is up by 1.21%, with three sessions remaining to close out the month, and is just 2.53% away from the year’s high of 1,749.90 points.

The fear of correction moves the markets

Investors worldwide have their eyes constantly on Wall Street — not just because developments there influence the flow of investment funds into other markets, but because lately it seems that some may have “inside information,” allowing others to draw useful conclusions about the intentions of the U.S. President based on stock movements. Last Friday, for example, NYSE stocks rallied to close out a strong week on an optimistic note. With late-hour buying, the three main Wall Street indices finished Friday in positive territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 20 points or +0.05%. The S&P 500 rose by +0.7% on the day, while the Nasdaq Composite gained +1.3%. For the week, the S&P 500 rose +4.6% and the Nasdaq climbed +6.7%. Is this rise sustainable, or is it just another trap within a broader downward move? Statistics show that the S&P 500, when entering a bear market, typically falls by up to -35%. According to an analysis by Goldman Sachs, in bear markets triggered by a one-off shock, like in 2020, U.S. stocks fell around -27% on average. Cyclical bear markets, caused by rising interest rates, recession, and declining corporate earnings, have historically seen an average drop of about 30%.