Hello, before we move on to the slightly more serious matters, let me write something I learned regarding the possibility of K.M going to Abu Dhabi, in case of a Greek basketball final. “Don’t even think about it. No way the prime minister is going to show up just to be insulted by half the crowd that loses and cheered by the other half,” my source told me. Still, I should note that Mitsotakis is a full-on basketball fan. He may be “red,” but today he’s arranged to watch Panathinaikos against the Turks with friends.

Rallying and the “utter mess”

Yesterday, two more polls were published (Alco for Alpha, Opinion Poll for Action24) with shared parameters. A central one, as I wrote to you yesterday, was the improvement in ND’s percentage, as well as in Mitsotakis’ qualitative indicators. As an experienced pollster told me, the “key” for ND, whenever elections take place, will be its rallying. I also asked the pollster what he thinks about PASOK and his answer was disheartening. “Utter mess,” he said, explaining that there are defections of former SYRIZA voters who had “paused” at PASOK now going to Konstantopoulou, direct defections of PASOK voters to Konstantopoulou, and also defections of centrist PASOK voters to ND.

Marinakis’ announcements about ERT

Mitsotakis didn’t go to ERT yesterday just to see the new subtitling, nor simply to congratulate the new management duo (Giannis Papadopoulos and Konstantinos Papavasileiou), since the procedures through ASEP, Parliament and the Board have concluded. The “tangible” outcome, however, will be the money that will be distributed in the company after years, since raises will be given. The first in ten years, and notably without dipping into the state coffers. ERT has generated surpluses and it’s time to return them to its employees. These will most likely concern permanent staff, while the announcements and related details will be made in the coming days by the relevant minister and government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis, along with the Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis.

Kyranakis–Italy

It’s a matter of days (barring any dramatic change) before Konstantinos Kyranakis visits Italy, where he will have a meeting about Hellenic Train and the necessary investments in railway rolling stock with Matteo Salvini. You see, Salvini is not only Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister but also Minister of Infrastructure and Transport. In any case, the meeting would be useful, since the Intergovernmental Conference between Greece and Italy has been pending since February, as Mitsotakis’ scheduled visit to Rome was postponed.

Tzitzikostas in Kastellorizo

A multi-day schedule within Greece but outside Athens awaits Apostolos Tzitzikostas, who will be with us and not in Brussels this week. “Tzitzi” is arriving in Heraklion to participate in the Posidonia event, followed on Thursday by his scheduled visit to Rhodes. In fact, on the 9th of the month, which is Europe Day, the Greek commissioner has planned to be in Kastellorizo.

Latinopoulou’s office opening

After a period of declining poll numbers, Afroditi Latinopoulou is trying to pick up the thread again. I hear that on May 16, the opening of the “Voice of Reason” offices is scheduled on Patision Street, across from Pedion tou Areos. Also, between May 22 and 24, the study days of “Patriots for Europe,” the European parliamentary group to which Latinopoulou’s party belongs, will be held in Greece. Quite a few MEPs and party officials will come to our country, and I’m hearing that one of the “big names” very likely to participate in the proceedings at a central hotel is Jordan Bardella, number 2 of Le Pen. The program will also include a tour of the Acropolis, dinners, etc.

Appetite is growing for cooperative banks – Who visited Stournaras

There is increased activity surrounding cooperative banks, at least those that still remain. New banking licenses are not an easy process, and since the options have been exhausted with Attica Bank and ABB (preceded by the Praxia Bank license, which ended up with VIVA), the ball is now in the court of the cooperatives, as was evident in the recent case of P. Nomikos with the Epirus Bank. I mention all this because I’ve learned that the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Giannis Stournaras, was recently visited by veteran banker Andreas Boumis, well known in the Greek market for having served at various times as president and CEO of Emporiki Bank, Investment Bank, Egnatia, Macedonia-Thrace Bank, and later as a board member at NBG. The purpose of A. Boumis’ visit was to inform Stournaras that he has assembled a group of investors interested in acquiring a stake in a cooperative bank. According to reports, Stournaras’ response was to direct them to the Bank of Greece’s supervisory department to submit the relevant documentation so the initiative could be assessed. According to different sources, Boumis’ proposal is said to concern the Cooperative Bank of Thessaly.

Now in Karditsa too

While this is happening in Trikala, where the Cooperative Bank of Thessaly is based, there is also movement in neighboring Karditsa regarding its local cooperative bank. Reportedly, the Helidoni Group, an investment entity of D. Georgakopoulos, has shown interest and discussions have taken place about acquiring a stake in the Cooperative Bank of Karditsa. The Helidoni Group has been active in the Greek market since 2022, primarily investing in companies with zero-waste and zero-emissions characteristics. It also participates in venture capital initiatives with a similar focus and has a presence in real estate and tourism sectors. The Cooperative Bank of Karditsa is expanding with branches outside the Karditsa region, and its shareholder base includes the Belgian fund Helenos.

Heart attack (due to mortgage loans) in the covered bond market

And since all of the above reveals the presence of quite a few aspiring bankers, let’s now turn to the struggles in the sector. A few days ago (April 29–30), the Plenary of the European Covered Bond Council was held in Athens – this is the main body representing the covered bond market, which involves assets worth over €3.3 trillion. As is well known, in order for banks to issue covered bonds, they must be backed by specific high-quality assets, such as mortgage loans. Although in Greece the bond market now has the proper rating (AA) and the relevant legal framework in place to allow covered bond issuances, this is not happening. The market is effectively clinically dead in recent years because mortgage lending is in a dormant state, to put it politely. In the good years before the crisis, mortgage credit in the Greek banking system peaked at €81 billion. Now it stands at just €26 billion and shows no signs of recovery for the time being. This is also why no Greek bank has issued any covered bond since 2018. (National Bank issued one in 2017, followed by Eurobank and Alpha Bank in 2017 and 2018 respectively.) The situation isn’t much better – though slightly improved – across Southern Europe. The Plenary of the European Covered Bond Council tried to seek solutions to this issue, with representatives from all four systemic banks participating. The think tank analyzing the Greek market’s structure and seeking solutions included the treasurers of the four systemic banks: Giannis Asimelis from Alpha Bank, Dimitris Psychogios from Eurobank, Vasilis Kotsiras from National Bank of Greece, and Dimitris Spathakis from Piraeus Bank.

Tyler Macbeth’s Gym… Missing in Action

Shifting gears from banks and the provinces to a lighter business note: you might recall that last fall, Tyler Macbeth, husband of Stefanos Kasselakis, founded the company Barry’s Greece I.K.E., headquartered at the couple’s Kolonaki maisonette, aiming to launch a Greek branch of the famed U.S. gym chain Barry’s. The company was officially registered on September 30, 2024, with an initial capital of €1,000 and listed address at 5 Leventi Street. However, it’s unclear how preparations are progressing. So far, Barry’s Greece does not appear on the official list of Barry’s locations or upcoming gyms — all of which are currently in the U.S., with one scheduled to open in Barcelona. Founded in 1998 by trainer Barry Jay in Hollywood, the brand has since expanded across many U.S. states and 15 countries including the UK, France, Italy, and Spain. Earlier this year, rumors circulated about disagreements between Kasselakis and Macbeth related to the gym — and more — but these were officially denied. One of Barry’s signature features is the “Red Room”, a workout space bathed in moody red lighting for the most intense exercises. Outside each Red Room is the catchy slogan: “Burn, baby, burn…”, inviting members to torch calories. Here’s hoping that the burn begins in Greece soon too.

PPC Data Center Construction Begins in Spata

Construction has begun on the new data center in Spata, a €150 million investment by Data In Scale, a partnership between Public Power Corporation (PPC) and EDGNEX Data Centers (of UAE-based DAMAC), carried out by TEN Brinke Hellas, the Greek subsidiary of the Dutch TEN Brinke Group. Located opposite the Smart Park shopping complex, the 32,000 sqm property initially belonged jointly to TEN Brinke and Trade Estates REIC, but has since become solely owned by the former. Construction is expected to proceed rapidly, with completion targeted by year’s end, so the facility can be operational in 2026. In the venture, PPC holds a 45% stake and EDGNEX 55%.

Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP) Pushes Transport Overhaul

One of HCAP’s biggest ongoing projects is the full transformation of Athens’ public transport entities (OASA – OSY – STASY). CEO Yiannis Papachristou aims for significant upgrades to both infrastructure and rider experience. The plan includes 673 new buses by 2025, 603 driver hires, and a focus on safety improvements. Major upgrades will also be made to metro trains and stations. Notably, 2025 will mark the start of a refurbishment program for 14 trains on Metro Line 1. We shall see…

Real Consulting Set to Graduate to Main Market of Athens Stock Exchange

After more than a year of preparation, Real Consulting is finally nearing its transition from the Alternative Market to the Main Market of the Athens Stock Exchange. The IT services firm, majority-owned by Nikos V. Vardinogiannis, expects the process to complete between late June and early July. Within the next 10 days, the first draft of the prospectus will be sent to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. As clarified during the company’s recent Extraordinary General Meeting, there will be no public offering or capital increase at this stage. However, a future capital raise for investment or acquisition purposes was not ruled out. Real Consulting initially joined the EN.A market in August 2021.

A favorable wind blows in the ports

Piraeus Port exceeded a capitalization of 1 billion euros (€1,012,500), reaching a new historic high of €40.5, while offering a dividend yield of around 5%. Thessaloniki Port also climbed yesterday at 12:36 pm to a new historic high of €34, though it later dropped to €33.7 (-0.59%). Even with a capitalization of €1.012 billion, Piraeus Port remains 70% cheaper than the Port of Genoa, a fact that consistently attracts investment interest from abroad. OLTH is worth only €339,696,000, but there investors await some signal or message from its major shareholders regarding their next moves. However, it is evident that some institutional investors specialized in ports continue to “build positions” in OLP and OLTH, as if expecting something to happen.

The stock market can manage just fine on its own

With the London Stock Exchange closed for a holiday, trading on the Athens Stock Exchange was limited and sluggish. Around midday, when American managers woke up, turnover was slightly boosted, reaching with difficulty €100.32 million, of which only €1.4 million in block trades. The General Index maintained a positive sign yesterday too, without the help of the banks, at 1,731 points (+0.3%). National Bank diverged yesterday from the negative trend in the banking sector. It closed below €10, at €9.688 (+1.34%) while Eurobank, which detached its €0.105/share dividend, closed at €2.49 with -3.11%, causing indifference among the other systemic banks, which essentially remained unchanged. Sarantis stood out (+4.06%) at a new historic high of €13.84 due to great optimism regarding today’s announcements by management, prompted by the 2024 results. Aegean, which announced strengthened cooperation with Emirates, closed up +2.99% at €12.4, and Metlen (+1.88%) remained above €6 billion at €42.18. One day before the FED meeting, the US 10-year government bond yields 4.32%, the German 2.51%, the French 3.22%, and the Greek 10-year bond follows with 3.34%.

The Emirates and Greek business with Artificial Intelligence

The visit of the UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, H.E. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, to Athens last Friday, was one of the most significant business events of the past week, hence the numerous references, reports, and press releases with noteworthy content. One aspect of the visit that was not extensively analyzed was the meetings held last Friday between the minister’s associates and Greek tech companies. These associates, from Presight AI (an AI and analytics company) and MGX (a $100 billion investment scheme in data centers and AI scale-ups), presented a massive investment plan of $110 billion by the Emirates, corresponding to 5GW of computing power. Reports indicate there was particular interest in the training and certification of Emiratis in the use of artificial intelligence models, by specialized Greek firms—a human capital investment to support the infrastructure and data centers.

A drop in olive oil prices is expected

Spain accounts for more than 40% of global olive oil production. Deoleo is the world’s largest olive oil producer (Bertolli and Carbonell are its most well-known brands), so when Deoleo forecasts that “the worst is behind us” in the oil market, everyone listens closely. It is now widely known that the prolonged period of extreme weather and drought in recent years in Southern Europe seriously affected the olive harvest and led to an unprecedented, dizzying price rally that influenced consumer price indexes. Recently, prices have declined, and production for the 2024–2025 period in key oil-producing countries like Spain, Greece, and Tunisia appears to have normalized. Today, Spain’s Deoleo predicts that prices of the “liquid gold” will drop by nearly -50% from their all-time high in the coming months. Demand for extra virgin olive oil is still sustaining prices, but the overall trend is downward. Extra virgin olive oil in Andalusia is now being sold by producers at €6 per kilo, compared to €9.2 last year.

The problem lies in the dollar, not tariffs

Tomorrow’s FED meeting is not only about dollar interest rates and the public clash between President Trump and U.S. Central Banker Powell. Over the past 4 months, a significant shift has been unfolding on the global financial map, with the dollar—not losing but—diminishing in influence as the world’s reserve currency. Central banks worldwide are gradually loosening their dependence on the dollar. The dollar today represents less than 59% of global reserves, according to the IMF, whereas it was over 70% at the beginning of the century. The dollar’s dominance will not vanish suddenly and abruptly, but the era of undisputed supremacy is fading. This shift is already bringing massive consequences for global portfolios, pricing, and capital allocation. Emerging economies are building their own financial systems. The dollar exchange rate showed its weakest start since 2008, declining more than 4% on the dollar index (DXY). The euro is emerging as a safe alternative. It has risen over 4% against the dollar in just the last fortnight, bolstered by Europe’s moves toward fiscal coordination, collective defense investments, and economic resilience. Reserve managers are responding. At the same time, the Japanese yen is also experiencing significant inflows as a safe haven. South Korea’s won is appearing stronger. China’s yuan continues to rise, as Beijing signs cross-border trade agreements that completely bypass the dollar. None of these currencies could replace the dollar as a reserve currency. However, the trend is clear: We are moving toward monetary pluralism, and this entails tectonic changes in the ways and methods of investment evaluation worldwide.