The first diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine since 2022, despite passing through “40 waves,” seems to be finally set to take place in Istanbul, following the urging of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the behind-the-scenes moves of the United States.

Its duration is unlikely to exceed that of 2022, since what remains to be agreed upon—or not—is whether Moscow will accept the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire without conditions on the fronts, which has been long offered.

Based on what happened during the first meeting in Istanbul in spring 2022, no one can be optimistic about achieving results from this diplomatic effort. If we consider that Moscow views today’s meeting as a continuation of the first conference—and therefore has chosen the same composition—then deadlock is perhaps the most likely scenario.

Initially, Russia demanded Ukraine’s President Zelensky’s removal from Kyiv and unconditional surrender on the battlefield. Ukraine responded negatively and quickly managed to push Russian forces out of the Kyiv suburbs, and later began to press Putin’s troops significantly in the south of the country. The situation then moved into complete radio silence between Kyiv and Moscow, as Ukrainian forces entered Bucha and Irpin and encountered the atrocities and crimes committed by Russian forces in the area against civilians.

If, from this new bilateral meeting—whenever it begins, as the latest reports suggest it might happen on Friday—the same deadlock emerges, it will mark the third consecutive U.S. effort to “bridge” the enormous gap between Ukraine and Russia, which would be ultimately wasted. Moreover, if Russia’s demands remain at the same level, it is clear and certain that all three times Moscow has chosen to abandon diplomacy in favor of deadlock.

After Biden took office, Russia found itself back at the negotiating table under very different terms than those initially set by Donald Trump. Pressure on Putin and Moscow decreased significantly, while pressure on Zelensky and Kyiv increased asymmetrically. With new terms and Russia holding substantial diplomatic leverage, the balance of power shifted in its favor. Moscow’s maneuvers and its indirect yet clear “nyet” to U.S. peace efforts will soon provoke a different kind of response from Washington—one that Kyiv and Europe have been awaiting for some time.

During his three-day visit to the Arabian Peninsula, Donald Trump signaled regarding Russia’s “hide and seek” tactics and “mind games” that, if he were present, he would do so himself, and that nothing can proceed without his direct involvement. If we strip from these statements the large “I” of the American president, Trump is effectively setting himself a timetable—one that is quite pressing—regarding the Ukraine war.

Soon, Trump will face new difficult decisions, specifically whether to implement the only threat he has issued against Russia: strict sanctions on Moscow’s energy resources. Given his approach since January 20, this scenario seems unlikely, but if Trump perceives that the spotlight and global attention are shifting away from him toward other figures and centers, it’s not impossible to see him mobilize again.

Closing

Currently, the situation regarding the end of the war and the necessary steps is moving at a pace neither the U.S., nor Europe, nor Ukraine can dictate. The speed and manner of negotiations are unlikely to change even with intermediaries like Turkey, and perhaps nothing would change even if Beijing, aside from leaks suggesting a positive view of a ceasefire, moved toward more direct actions.

Moscow has outlined a very specific roadmap, aiming to proceed as long as the costs remain lower than the stakes and potential gains.