Hello there, I gather that the introductory note from the European Public Prosecutor’s Office accompanying the 3,000-page case file on the OPEKEPE scandal is making it hard for the government to manage the affair in any way. As of late last night, there was no full picture of the contents, but I understand it will be very hard for the government to avoid a Parliamentary Inquiry or Pre-investigation Committee, since the references to Minister Voridis and former minister Avgenakis point to offenses. The PM’s office issued a statement last night mainly defending what has happened under this government (inspections, referrals to trial), essentially the dismantling of the organization and the assignment of distributing EU funds to the Independent Authority for Public Revenue. As it looked last night, a… political adventure in the middle of summer will hardly be avoided.

Voridis
-Now, the person in the spotlight is, understandably, Voridis, who is the minister and whether or not he can stay in his post if it comes to an investigation. There was contact yesterday between the minister and the PM’s office, but they’re waiting first for a clear view of the case file (to read it thoroughly) and of course for Mitsotakis’ return, as he is at the EU Summit in Brussels.

Mitsotakis – Erdogan
-The meeting between Mitsotakis and Erdogan was literally on their feet and, as is well known, such encounters without foreign ministers and diplomatic advisers rarely produce political results. With that in mind, and given broader developments (e.g. in Libya), I don’t see a High Council happening this summer. July, after all, is a tricky month, associated with the Cypriot tragedy. So we’ll revisit the matter come September…

The new ambassadors and the hiccups in transfers
-The supplementary ambassadorial transfers were announced by the Foreign Ministry, but in a way that shows serious hiccups in decision-making. So, while a few weeks ago Ioannis Vrailas had been announced for the important post in Washington, it was ultimately decided he should stay at Greece’s Permanent Representation to the EU to prepare for the 2027 Greek Presidency — which, of course, had been known for months. Now it’s announced that Alexandros Alexandridis will go to the Washington Embassy, even though he only took up the post in Paris six months ago and, before that, served in the UAE, where he also didn’t complete two years before moving to the French capital. The other transfers announced yesterday: A. Baltas to Madrid, D. Michalopoulos to Jakarta, I. Papameletios to Tripoli, E. Lianidou to Brasilia, A. Kotsionis to Ljubljana. The problem is that important diplomatic posts remain without an ambassador: in Paris, Tehran, Baghdad, Abuja, Lima, while the key embassy in the UAE has been vacant since February, when Alexandridis moved to Paris.

Gerapetritis – Rubio
-A second meeting in a few months with U.S. Secretary of State M. Rubio isn’t something ordinary — and justifiably, G. Gerapetritis feels that a relationship of trust is gradually being built. In their meeting in The Hague, beyond a general review of the situation in the Middle East, they discussed reviving the 3+1 scheme (Greece, Cyprus, Israel + USA), to which the U.S. Secretary appears positive. They also discussed the IMEC corridor, a U.S. priority once the “sounds of guns” in the region subside. Rubio, reportedly, showed particular interest in Syria and, as a devout Christian, was shaken and troubled by the attack on the Greek Orthodox church. The F-35 issue also came up — Greece is already a program member, while Turkey is offering “land and water” to return. But after the Israel-Iran war experience, where the superiority of 5th generation fighters became clear, it’s almost certain that besides Greece’s objections, Israel’s strong opposition to supplying Turkey with these jets should be taken for granted.

N. Bakos and Al. Kaymenaki new major shareholders in Douros
-The general assembly of Douros shareholders had a strong turnout yesterday morning in Patras. Shareholders representing 2,219,260 common registered shares and the same number of voting rights participated — that’s 56.023% of a total of 3,961,300 shares and voting rights. Management presented the company’s financials and asked the shareholders to approve bringing in a dynamic business duo into the shareholder mix. The shareholders unanimously approved, and tomorrow, Friday, the signatures will be put on a convertible bond loan via private placement, with the old shareholders waiving their participation rights. Theodoros Douros didn’t reveal the strategic investor’s name, waiting for the contracts to be signed first. Reliable market sources report that the investors are Nikos Bakos, President and CEO of Volton and son of the well-known shipowner-businessman and co-owner of Asteras Tripolis FC, Dimitris Bakos, and Alexandra Kaymenaki, daughter of Giannis Kaymenakis, the other owner of Asteras and partner of D. Bakos. Douros’ current market cap doesn’t exceed €1 million. The €3 million bond loan definitely changes the company’s prospects, and clearly the business focus will change too.

We belong to the (European) South
-BFF, doing factoring, has the needed experience and has recorded that the Greek state takes —on average— a year to pay its suppliers. (That’s why factoring is booming business.) The same bad habit exists in Southern Italy — maybe a bit worse — while in Northern Europe payment times are much, much shorter. Portugal is in a similar state to us, while there are big improvements in Spain. Debts to private suppliers in Greece are just under €2.9 billion, with the biggest backlogs in public hospitals.

Stefanos Papapanagiotou at the top of UBS for banking
-Stefanos Papapanagiotou (along with V. Hebatpuria) was appointed as the new global head of banking at UBS. According to Bloomberg, UBS undertook an internal restructuring that placed Papapanagiotou at the top of the Swiss bank’s leadership pyramid. Papapanagiotou is well known in the Greek market as he’s done several deals over time. Among other things, he’s currently working for Germany’s Commerzbank, organizing its defense against Unicredit’s advances, as well as for Banca Monte di Paschi, which is trying to acquire Mediobanca.

The public offer for Ktima Lazaridi is coming
-The MSCI’s decision to keep the Greek stock market in the emerging markets category reflects the weaknesses of the Athens Exchange: its small size and limited liquidity. Stock exchanges everywhere are trying to attract listings. The Athens Exchange is the only one doing the opposite — driving listings away. After Kepenos Mills, Ktima Lazaridi is leaving the exchange, as the statement that its shareholders acted in concert triggers a public offer. The rule imposed by (I’ve got you all written off) G. Kontopoulos is driving companies off the exchange. It’s true that their share dispersion is limited, as is their trading volume’s share of total turnover. But they are still well-run companies that added value to the Exchange’s whole and its image…

The rebound of GEK TERNA
-Despite the dividend cutoff, GEK TERNA showed its strength on the board yesterday and not only covered the dividend amount (0.41 gross), but moved above the previous day’s close. The swift rebound especially pleased shareholders, as in a few days they’ll get the dividend and the stock hasn’t lost ground. The move reflects the stock’s prospects — just days ago Mediobanca, in a fresh report starting coverage of GEK TERNA, set a target price of €28.8, implying about 47% upside from current levels. The investment bank’s analysts also stressed that the real value of Greece’s largest concessions portfolio hasn’t yet been reflected in the stock price. They also forecast that GEK TERNA’s total revenues will rise from €3.2 billion in 2024, to €3.9 billion in 2025, and further to €4 billion in 2026, driven by its two core activities: concessions and construction. It’s worth noting that Chairman and CEO George Peristeris, at the shareholders’ general assembly, mentioned the forecast of doubling the Group’s profits over the next three years.

Oil prices and MOH – HELLENiQ: Opposite fates
-Oil prices are falling after the truce achieved in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, while refinery stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange headed upwards. HELLENiQ ENERGY hit the milestone of 8 euros and closed at a nearly one-year high. More specifically, it closed at €8.13, with the next peak spotted at €8.32 from July 9, 2024. This year it is showing gains of over +7.5% and its market capitalization is approaching €2.5 billion. As for Motor Oil, although the stock slid yesterday by -3% to €24.2, it was trading ex-dividend, without the right to the €1.1 per share dividend. Wednesday’s losses amounted to about €0.76, so based on the dividend amount, it avoided the worst. Worth noting is that MOH has gained +17.25% since the start of this year, though it still stands well below the historic high of €28.56 it hit in May 2024. Its market capitalization is nearing €2.7 billion.

The jackpots boost OPAP
-The prize of the latest consecutive jackpot in JOKER, which draws today, has surpassed €8 million — as of the time these lines were written. The more jackpots, the higher OPAP’s stock price climbs. OPAP has already captured 5th place in terms of market capitalization on the Athens Stock Exchange with €7.2 billion, taking advantage of Alpha Bank’s brief “downtime,” which returns next Monday. Yesterday, with trading value exceeding €4.5 million, OPAP’s stock reached €19.5 (+1.67%).

Intralot’s bond
-Tomorrow begins the process for the re-evaluation of Intralot’s bond by S&P. Two months ago, Intralot had announced an extension of the maturity of its €100 million bond loan until January 2026, with the remaining principal standing at €90 million. The market is awaiting developments at Intralot, whose market capitalization (yesterday +2.87% at €1.1480) is approaching €700 million.

Stock market: Heading for a historic record
-June started with the General Index at 1,831 points. If it closes even slightly higher next Monday, the Athens Stock Exchange will have recorded its 8th consecutive month of gains — for the first time in its history. And this will happen in a global environment that is anything but stable, with economic, political, and geopolitical tremors on a daily basis. Yesterday, at the start of the session, there was mild profit taking; the General Index slipped to 1,859.51 points (-0.43%) and then regained momentum, climbing to 1,873.21 points (+0.30%). It finally closed at 1,871.22 points (+0.20%) with transactions of €189.05 million, including about €30 million in block trades. Once again, Coca Cola (-0.71% at €44.8) was conspicuously absent from the upward party, while Metlen is gearing up for its European journey with new highs at €46.14 (+1.01%). Small Frigoglass also hit a new 52-week high (+4.18%) at €0.4980. Sarantis impressed (+5.17%) at €13.42, while Aegean (€12.24) and HELLENiQ Energy (€8.13) took their revenge for previous pressures with +3.20% and +3.04% respectively. Piraeus (+2.49%) reached €6, while DAA, Aktor, OPAP, and Titan closed with gains exceeding 1%.

“Green steel” ends for ArcelorMittal
-The relentless bombings simultaneously in many parts of the world, the presidential exhortation “drill baby, drill” that finds eager ears in many world capitals, have certainly relegated the anxiety about the planet’s climate crisis to second place. This is where the sudden and unexpected decision of ArcelorMittal, the world’s second-largest steelmaker, not to proceed after all with developing steel production based on green hydrogen at its plants in Bremen and Eisenhüttenstadt, Germany, must be attributed. This decision was accompanied by the company’s renunciation of federal and state subsidies amounting to €1.3 billion, while the total investment would have reached around €2.5 billion. Now everyone is starting to see “green energy” investments differently. ArcelorMittal explained that it wasn’t certain whether the necessary hydrogen would be available on time and at acceptable prices. The high cost of electricity in Germany renders “green steel” production uncompetitive. There is, of course, the uncertainty associated with punitive U.S. tariffs and inadequate protection against cheap steel imports. The big question is how other steelmakers like ThyssenKrupp Steel, Salzgitter, and Saar-Stahl will react with their own plans for climate-neutral steel production.

USA: Tariffs increase revenue but don’t reduce the deficit
-The U.S. Treasury Department announced a massive fiscal deficit of $316 billion in May, the third-largest ever recorded in the country’s history. Total government spending rose +3% year-on-year to $687 billion. Revenue from tariffs increased by +270% year-on-year to a record $23 billion, but this was not enough to noticeably reduce the deficit. This means that by August, the fiscal gap in the Federal Budget will reach $1.37 trillion, the third-largest in history. The annual federal deficit is now estimated at $2 trillion or 6.7% of GDP, up from 6.1% a year ago.

The virus of defense spending infected Switzerland too
-Switzerland’s proverbial neutrality has spared it a very large fiscal burden borne by other European governments: increased defense spending. But seeing the big party in the Defense Industry, Switzerland declared its participation. It officially submitted an inquiry to the European Union as to whether it can follow future arms agreements. Obviously, the Swiss government’s decision doesn’t concern joining any pan-European military force. It’s simply trying to secure better prices and a seat at the defense table. If Switzerland’s request is approved, it opens the door to projects worth $174 billion that Swiss companies will compete for. In addition, it gains the right to participate in the reconstruction and rebuilding of Ukraine, if and when the war ends.