The risk that Turkey‘s claim to a hegemonic regional role will be undermined by the air superiority of Israel and Greece is the reason for Angara’s major mobilization to fill this gap and restore the balance of power in the air.

The anxiety of the Turkish leadership, manifested in recent months both in efforts to lift US sanctions on the F-35 and German and French objections to the Eurofighter Typhoon and securing the necessary materials for the development of the Turkish KAAN fighter, testifies to the vital importance of the issue of restoring the balance in the air, which has been disturbed in recent years to Turkey’s detriment.

After the experience of the recent wars in Gaza and Syria, and with the attack on Iran, Turkey realizes that it cannot claim a regional role and even as a counterweight to Israel, when its air force, with its aging fleet of F-16s, can only “get away with it” in Iraq.

Nor, of course, can it pose a threat to Israel, which, relying mainly on its air power, enforces its own “law” in the airspace of the wider region. One of the well-known think tanks closely associated with the Erdogan government and Turkish intelligence agencies, SETA, warns in a report that Turkey “must acquire sufficient quantitative and qualitative capabilities in air, air defense and space against two simultaneous externally-backed threats, Israel and Greece.”

Negative image

The report paints an extremely negative picture of the capabilities of the Turkish Air Force, warning that Turkey risks losing ground to its regional competitors if it does not modernize and expand its fighter fleet.

SETA argues in its report that Israel and Greece, with the support of Western alliances and advanced military technologies, have gained a strategic advantage that could undermine Turkish security interests.

According to SETA’s analysis, the mainstay of the Turkish Air Force since the 1980s , the F-16 fleet, is nearing the end of its operational life, and Turkey “cannot rely on outdated systems when facing adversaries with fifth-generation fighters and integrated defense networks.” And it proposes the immediate procurement of new fighters and investment in indigenous programs to maintain deterrence capability and strategic independence.

The report makes reference to a preliminary agreement for Turkey to purchase Eurofighter Typhoon fighters to fill the gap created by Turkey’s withdrawal from the F-35 program due to the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense systems, noting, however, that the purchase of the Eurofighter is a necessary temporary solution, as only the reintegration into the F-35 program would “restore Turkey’s quality advantage.”

In its analysis of regional balances, SETA makes specific reference to Greece and Israel, noting that Israel has a combination of F-15I and F-35I Adir fighters, with more than 36 stealth aircraft in active service, while Greece is modernizing its F-16s to the F-16V level and strengthening its defense ties with France and the United States.

And it concludes that “these states (i.e.: Greece and Israel) have taken advantage of Western alliances to create air forces capable of projecting power, and Turkey must be prepared to counter them”, setting the goal of creating a fleet capable of operations on multiple fronts, with a minimum inventory of 500 combat-ready fighters.

Documenting the unfavourable picture of the Turkish Air Force, the report said Turkey’s current fleet includes some 235 F-16C/D Block 30/40/50+, many of which have been modernised through the ÖZGÜR program, which incorporates indigenously developed radars, sensors and long-range munitions. However, SETA points out that modernisation alone is not enough. “Even with upgrades, the structural life span of many F-16s is limited.”

As for the indigenous KAAN fighter, developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries, the report estimates that it could have a transformative role after its expected entry into service from 2028 onwards. The KAAN is planned as a fifth-generation fighter with stealth and integration capabilities with unmanned aircraft such as the ANKA-3 and Kızılelma.

At the same time, SETA recommends the development and general modernization of Turkey’s air defense and radar systems, particularly to counter stealth aircraft. “Turkey must be able to defend itself, prevent attacks and – if necessary – strike adversaries without depending on external licenses or being subject to embargoes,” the report states.

SETA’s analysis links these military needs of Turkey to geopolitical developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. It points to Greece’s expanding defense cooperation with Israel, the U.S. and the EU as a factor that could isolate Turkey if not addressed.

“The combined air capabilities of Greece and Israel, backed by Western powers, constitute a dual challenge that Turkey must be ready to meet with a holistic approach that combines external markets with domestic innovation.”

The Libyan example

The report concludes by stressing that air sovereignty is vital to Turkey’s regional influence and its ability to respond to crises. It cites operations in Libya in 2019-2020 as evidence that long-range and high-altitude ceiling capabilities are crucial in modern conflicts. Without them, Turkey risks losing the initiative in future confrontations.

The report’s conclusions note that:

“Turkey is on the threshold of a major milestone in terms of fighter aircraft procurement. In modern conflicts, the existence of a self-sufficient air industry that is not dependent on foreign countries has become a crucial element of national defense, which became clear during the conflict between Iran and Israel.”

Therefore, it is now vital for Turkey to secure air superiority when required to defend its interests in conflicts within its first and second spheres of influence.

SETA even makes an assessment and inventory of the steps Turkey needs to take in order to confront “competing countries for regional power”:

Upgrading the existing fighter fleet, going beyond established technologies, meeting the need for multi-role fighters through the procurement of new F-16s, gaining superiority in maneuverability and high-altitude firepower through the procurement of Eurofighter, capable of countering aircraft such as Rafale; pursuing an agreement to include F-35s in the arsenal to achieve qualitative superiority; consolidating the momentum developed with the Hürkuş and Hürjet programs, focusing on the KAAN program, ensuring long-term supply of indigenous fighter aircraft, the emergence of the Hürjet as a long-term alternative to the F-16, procurement and integration of advanced strategic UAVs with stealth, long-range, high-altitude, long-air stay and AI-supported characteristics, such as the ANKA-3, within the framework of the country’s overall combat capabilities.