It is the early hours of August 19, 2024. The 56-meter superyacht Bayesian, belonging to British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, is anchored about 500 meters from the port of Porticello, Sicily.

The crew on watch has awakened the captain and the rest of the crew, while some of the guests have also gotten up, unsettled by the approaching storm.

Suddenly, the winds become violent. Just as suddenly, in less than 15 seconds, the Bayesian heels sharply and tilts 90 degrees. Without any warning, in mere seconds, the vessel floods and sinks, taking with it 7 of the 22 people on board. Among the dead are Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter, the yacht’s chef, Jonathan Bloomer, international director of Morgan Stanley, and his wife Judy, renowned American lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda.

Exactly one year later, the ghostly form of the Bayesian, raised from the 50-meter depth where it lay – claiming in the meantime yet another life, that of a 39-year-old diver who was killed while investigating it – now stands, gray and scarred, on a metal frame in Termini Imerese, 16 kilometers from the place where it sank. And it reveals its final secrets.

Vulnerable to winds

Why did the deadly shipwreck happen? How could it have been avoided? Who bears responsibility? Why did other, smaller and less technologically advanced boats in the area suffer no damage? Did the 10-member crew forget to close some hatches, compromising the yacht’s watertight integrity, or was there a construction defect?

Italian authorities are determined to provide detailed answers, and for that reason they hesitate at nothing that might help their investigation. The recovery of the luxury vessel (valued at $40 million) from the seabed cost more than €30 million. The 72-meter mast, for which the Bayesian was famous as one of the tallest in the world, was raised separately, after an underwater robot had cut it from the yacht’s main body earlier.

In a preliminary report on the catastrophic sinking, investigators concluded that the yacht had “vulnerabilities” in extreme weather conditions, unknown to the owner or the crew. That if winds exceeding 72 mph struck, it was highly likely to lose stability. Which is exactly what happened.

But now shocking new questions arise: How could such design flaws exist in such an expensive, unique superyacht? And how is it possible that the crew was not informed of these “defects,” at least through the yacht’s manual? To whom should this negligence be attributed?

A matter of stability

Experts scratched their heads in puzzlement, as no convincing explanation for the sinking existed. It seemed impossible to occur—at least based on the available data. A British study had judged that there was indeed a stability issue with the yacht. The Italian preliminary report now confirms the same. To reach this conclusion, however, it was first necessary to raise the vessel (“intact” was the order of the Italian prosecutors) from 50 meters below.

The operation quickly turned tragic again, as the Bayesian claimed another victim. One of the divers working on it lost his life when he was pierced by a piece of metal. The authorities then decided that the remaining work would be carried out using underwater robots.

The final moments

From the images of the once-luxurious but now water-corroded interior of the Bayesian, and from the detailed examination of its mechanical and other parts—combined with the testimonies of eyewitnesses—investigators of the Italian authorities have been able to mentally step inside the Bayesian, reconstructing the final hours before the vessel began its descent to the seabed, dragging seven souls with it. In their preliminary report, alongside the probable causes of the sinking, they also describe the yacht’s last hours.

That night, the passengers and some crew members retired early to their cabins. The sea was calm and the evening was beautiful, although the forecast mentioned storms were expected. As usual, on the bridge of the 56-meter yacht the night watch remained, with Captain James Catfield instructing to be woken in two cases: if the wind speed exceeded 23 mph, or if the yacht (which was anchored) began to drift.

21:24. The report states:
“At 21:24 the Bayesian anchored east of the main breakwater. The central fin [or swing keel] was in a raised position. Another vessel, the Sir Robert Baden Powell, was also anchored nearby. The sea was calm and a very light wind was blowing from the northwest. Storms had been forecast, and those aboard the Bayesian could occasionally see lightning flashes to the west.”

03:00. An officer on night duty noticed that the storm clouds and lightning visible offshore were drawing closer, although the wind was blowing at about 9 mph from the west. He recorded it in the bridge logbook.

03:55. The next entry in the logbook notes that the wind had increased to 34 mph. Since the yacht was very close to the Sicilian coast and the storm seemed “ordinary,” there was no concern. In fact, this is confirmed by the fact that at 3:55 a.m. a crew member filmed a video of the approaching storm and posted it on social media, before shutting the wheelhouse windows and the forward hatches to protect the yacht’s interior from the rain. Soon, however, the scene began to change, with winds, as eyewitnesses described, resembling a hurricane and carrying debris near and around the little harbor.

03:57. The yacht began to drag anchor and the night watch woke the captain and other crew members, according to the report. Meanwhile, the storm had intensified so much that some of the guests woke up. Among them was the owner of the superyacht, businessman Mike Lynch, who went to the bridge to see how severe the storm was and whether the taxis that had been scheduled for 8 a.m. that morning would need to be canceled because of it. The yacht’s chef began storing cutlery, pots, and pans as heavy rocking was expected. From those relatively calm moments to total chaos and destruction did not take long.

Gusts of 80 knots

04:06. Suddenly the wind intensified, exceeding 80 mph. According to the report, around 4:06 a.m. the yacht heeled violently to an angle of 90 degrees in less than 15 seconds, sending people, furniture, and other loose objects flying across the deck. This violent shift also explains why no SOS was sent and the authorities were never alerted to the danger. Instead of the yacht remaining in that position for some time—allowing crew and passengers the chance to react—or starting to sink gradually, it very quickly began its descent to the seabed. “There were no signs of flooding inside the Bayesian until water entered over the starboard railings and, within seconds, rushed into the interior spaces below the stairs,” the report noted. The yacht’s main power supply had been cut, but as it sank some lights were still working—it was not in total darkness.

Abandoning ship

As the yacht sank, passengers and crew tried to escape using whatever they could. For example, two passengers trapped in their cabin thought quickly and used drawers from the furniture inside as steps to climb out and reach the surface of the water.

In the first few minutes, the survivors—14 of the 22 people aboard—used wooden planks and cushions as makeshift life preservers, until the yacht’s first officer managed to detach and inflate a lifeboat from the wreck, according to the report. From that raft, the officer launched a flare, which was spotted by the captain of a nearby ship, who rescued the survivors before alerting the local coast guard.

The report states:
“As the captain was preparing to steer the Bayesian into the wind, the wind suddenly intensified above 70 knots. The awning above the bridge tore from left to right. At 04:06, the Bayesian heeled violently 90° to starboard, in less than 15 seconds. People, furniture, and objects fell across the deck.”

A matter of design

The preliminary report concludes that the cause of the sinking lay in the yacht’s construction: from the moment it was built, the Bayesian could become unstable or even capsize. According to investigators, winds of just 73 mph were enough to trigger this outcome—though they add it is likely the Bayesian was vulnerable even to weaker winds.