Yesterday’s Nexans conference call with international analysts turned into a full-scale interrogation about the Crete–Cyprus cable (GSI), as the French company came under intense pressure to provide answers on the progress of the electricity interconnection project, which has effectively “frozen.” More than half of all questions focused exclusively on the GSI — a €1.4 billion project representing roughly 20% of Nexans’ order backlog — which has become a test of credibility for the French group and has at times weighed heavily on its share price.

According to information, the conference call was also attended by executives from IPTO (the Independent Power Transmission Operator of Greece), which is the project’s implementing authority. The session was marked by high interest, with roughly one in two questions centered on the cable.

Analysts pressed the company for explanations on delays, payments, potential compensations, milestones, and even the possibility of reallocating the produced cable to another project. This forced management into a defensive stance and a clear retreat from earlier summer statements that hinted at a “plan B.”

Sticking to Plan A

The major change compared to the French company’s summer tone — signaling both the intense behind-the-scenes developments and the need for carefully worded statements — was obvious. While in August Nexans had left open the possibility of diverting the cable to other clients if the project didn’t move forward, management has now completely withdrawn that position. The message is now clear: there is no plan B, only plan A.

CEO Julien Hueber emphasized that the sole objective remains the completion of the project in cooperation with the client — IPTO — and that discussions are continuing “on an extremely good and collaborative basis,” with the European Commission closely monitoring the project. “We do not consider it to be at risk,” he stressed. This shift is seen as an attempt to reassure shareholders and markets, which have grown concerned about the fate of a project of strategic importance both for Nexans and for the energy future of the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Project by the Numbers

The GSI project, with a total budget of €1.9 billion, began in 2023. As revealed during the call, Nexans has so far received €250 million in advance and interim payments, while it expects a contribution of around €150 million in 2025 — though details were not clarified. When asked, IPTO representatives said they were unaware of such payments, noting that disbursements cannot proceed without regulatory decisions.

Nexans’ management described the project as progressing within its milestones, with the main phase of subsea installations expected in 2028–2029, when the technical work will peak.

The company reported that around 240 km of cable have been produced so far and that billing proceeds normally under the contractual terms. It repeatedly emphasized that discussions about the project’s next steps — including future payments — are taking place “in a very good climate.”

In its updated guidance, Nexans included the GSI in its projections for adjusted EBITDA of €810–860 million and free cash flow of €275–375 million for 2025.

Responding to persistent questions, Nexans executives explained that the subsea cable market is extremely specialized, with only two companies worldwide possessing the necessary know-how — both fully booked for the next four years. This, they said, secures Nexans’ strategic position and makes such projects vital for its sustainability.

Backlog and Revenue Visibility

Nexans reported a current order backlog of €7.9 billion — up 27% year-on-year — which, as noted, provides visibility on revenues for the next four to six years.

The surge in 2023 orders, largely thanks to the framework agreement with TenneT in the North Sea, has ensured full production capacity through 2028. Management expects a new wave of projects to begin preparation in 2027 and beyond, once production capacity in the market becomes available again. In the meantime, the company is focusing on high-quality execution of its existing backlog.

Acquisition of Electrocable in Canada

Nexans also announced the acquisition of Electrocable in Canada, which has annual sales of €125 million and an EBITDA margin above 20%. The acquisition will be fully financed in cash and is expected to be profitable from the first year, strengthening Nexans’ position in North America and signaling diversification at a time when all eyes are on the GSI.

A Company at a Critical Juncture

Nexans finds itself at a pivotal point. On the one hand, it seeks to demonstrate that the GSI remains active and on track; on the other, it is aware that the prolonged uncertainty surrounding the project’s progress continues to worry investors.

Coordination with the Greek side and the European Commission’s backing suggest that the project has gone beyond the limits of a commercial agreement and has evolved into a European energy issue.

For Nexans, the success or failure of the GSI will be a crucial test in a sector where only a handful of companies possess the capability to deliver projects of such scale and technical complexity.