In the middle of the week, Turkey activated its “Plan B,” following Washington’s continued silence regarding Ankara’s request to be reinstated in the F-35 fighter jet program. Instead, taking advantage of the United Kingdom’s consistently friendly stance toward Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan chose Britain to procure 20 fighter jets in the first phase — from a European country with an ever-growing Muslim population.

According to the bilateral agreement, Turkey will purchase 20 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter aircraft from the United Kingdom for 8 billion pounds, while also seeking another 24 aircraft from Gulf countries. By approaching Europe from the outside in, Ankara sent yet another signal of deepening its relations with NATO and the West — although the strategic objective behind this procurement is none other than the rapid strengthening of Turkey’s air defense.

Both Israel’s aerial power (which possesses hundreds of F-15, F-16, and F-35 aircraft) and Greece’s air superiority, with its Rafale fighters and upgraded F-16 Vipers, are motivating Ankara to seek alternatives elsewhere — especially since neither its return to the American F-35 program nor the domestic TAI KAAN fighter seem to be progressing. For British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the agreement represents a “milestone” and a starting point for further deepening of bilateral relations, although Turkey will not receive its first aircraft until 2030 — by which time Greece will already have received its first American-made F-35s.

Armament and Radar

Nevertheless, aerial supremacy will not necessarily be determined solely by the type of fighter aircraft each country possesses at any given moment, but also by their radar systems and strategic weapons. This is even more relevant since Turkey’s existing fighter fleet is composed of older-generation aircraft in urgent need of modernization — and the Eurofighter deal itself must be assessed across a broad range of parameters, including:

• delivery time
• support
• training
• logistics
• weapon systems
• interoperability

From this perspective, Ankara’s agreement will in reality be judged by its technological specifications — specifically, which radar or weapon systems will be incorporated into the Eurofighters ordered from the United Kingdom. One of the first key questions is whether the version agreed upon by Turkey will include the state-of-the-art AESA radar system, which offers several comparative advantages, such as:

• electronic scanning (meaning the radar’s antenna does not need mechanical movement to change modes),
• greater detection range,
• higher resistance to jamming, and
• the ability to track and lock onto multiple targets simultaneously.

It should be noted that the Greek Rafales are equipped with this type of radar, which is technologically mature and one of the features that make them so formidable. To date, there has been no official statement from Turkey regarding the radar systems of its new fighters. Similarly, it is not yet known whether the new Eurofighter Typhoons will initially include the AESA system — and the absence of it would represent a significant shortfall for the neighboring country.

Even if Turkey ultimately manages to acquire the 20 new fighters from the United Kingdom, this alone would not be enough to counterbalance Greece’s air power. The balance between Greece and Turkey in the skies will largely depend on one of the new strategic weapons — the MBDA Meteor (BVR) missile. Although Turkey has expressed its desire to integrate the Meteor missile into its new Eurofighters, such a prospect has sparked numerous reactions, particularly from the Greek side. Meanwhile, reports from Ankara suggest that Turkish officials have already discussed procuring the Meteor missiles for the new fighters, although it remains unclear whether this would apply to the entire fleet — that is, from the very first British-made aircraft to join Turkey’s air force.

Ultimately, the cost and integration timeline of the Meteor missiles will determine Turkey’s aerial deterrence capability. If the acquisition of the Meteor missiles follows their upgrade phase, then developments are expected to unfold more smoothly — and above all, more slowly — for Athens, with time working in Greece’s favor rather than against it.