After two challenging years for the Greek olive oil industry—marked by low production and high prices that strained both producers and consumers—there are clear signs that this season will bring a return to stability. Early estimates indicate normal production levels, which, if confirmed, should help maintain prices at sustainable levels for producers while making olive oil more affordable for consumers.

Olive oil production across Mediterranean countries is highly variable. Tunisia and Morocco are expected to see particularly high yields, while Spain, Italy, and Greece anticipate average output. In contrast, Turkey is projected to experience a significant decline.

For Greece, production estimates range between 210,000 and 230,000 tonnes, with 90,000 tonnes from the Peloponnese, 50,000 from Crete, 30,000 from the islands, and 50,000 from the mainland. This represents a strong recovery compared to previous years of shortages.

Prices for extra virgin olive oil are expected to range between €4.50 and €5.00 per kilogram this year, which translates to a retail price of approximately €7 to €8 per litre.

This price decrease is already evident on supermarket shelves: extra virgin olive oil is currently sold at around €7.95 per litre (down from €15 last year), while standard olive oil is priced at approximately €6.95 per litre. According to ELSTAT, since the record high in July 2024, prices have dropped by 62.8%, signaling a return to more typical market conditions.

Data from EDOE also indicates that about 25% of the consumption lost during previous years—when demand fell by up to 40%—has now been recovered.