The natural gas price shock currently affecting Europe due to the war in Iran could accelerate the continent’s shift away from Russian energy at a time when Europe is increasingly aligning with the United States, Reuters reports.

Iran’s recent attack, which forced Qatar Energy—the world’s second-largest LNG exporter—to halt production last week, caused European gas prices to surge by nearly 50%. This spike underscores Europe’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks beyond its borders and reinforces the urgency of prioritizing energy security.

In 2025, Qatar supplied only around 4% of the European Union’s gas imports. With these volumes now unavailable, US LNG is set to increasingly dictate market prices. The United States, after all, is the world’s largest LNG producer and exporter.

This shift could strengthen US efforts to encourage Europe to accelerate its full independence from Russian gas—a goal Western leaders have pursued with sanctions since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago. Temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian oil during the war is unlikely to alter this trajectory. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent threat to cut off the country’s remaining gas exports to Europe adds further impetus to reducing reliance on Moscow.

Currently, Russian gas still represents roughly 10% of EU imports. Although the EU has legislated to end all Russian gas imports by September 2027, legal ambiguities and loopholes could extend dependence on Russian gas beyond 2028.

Russia’s Ongoing Influence in Eastern Europe

While the US now supplies most of Europe’s LNG, Gazprom remains the dominant gas provider in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. These regions receive nearly all Russian pipeline gas, with a smaller portion delivered via the TurkStream pipeline connecting Russia to Turkey.

Unlike Northern Europe, which has diversified its energy sources with new LNG terminals and pipeline interconnections, Central and Southeastern Europe remain structurally vulnerable. Limited storage capacity, varying transportation tariffs, and fragmented markets make Russian pipeline gas commercially more attractive.

At the Transatlantic Gas Security of Supply Conference in Washington in late February—just days before the Middle East conflict erupted—the US message was clear: accelerate US LNG deliveries to Europe’s most vulnerable markets.

The Strategic Importance of the Direct Natural Gas Corridor

To achieve this, senior US officials and European energy ministers are prioritizing a flagship initiative: the All Gas Corridor, linking Greece’s LNG terminals with Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.

The Vertical Gas Corridor has the potential to fundamentally reshape gas trade in Central and Southern Europe, integrating these markets into transatlantic supply chains. This will secure long-term LNG imports and establish the Balkans as a key frontier for energy exporters.