The absence of an alternative opposition pole in recent years—especially after the collapse of SYRIZA—has admittedly not helped New Democracy, which has long been searching for a political counterweight.

Against this backdrop, the ruling party is closely watching the battle for second place between PASOK and the party being formed by Alexis Tsipras, with the potential wildcard being the party associated with Karystianou, expected to be announced in the coming days and before the former prime minister’s new formation. At the same time, warning shots are already being fired, as Nikos Androulakis has for some time adopted an increasingly confrontational tone, while Alexis Tsipras continues defending the record of his government and shaping his own alternative governing proposal.

“Mr. Tsipras wears the mask of someone who wants to appear pleasant without saying anything substantial,” government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis said yesterday (Alpha Radio 98.9), while also noting that the government has not heard any fully costed proposal with a beginning, middle, and end from the former prime minister.

“We are seeing a repetition of Mr. Tsipras’s rhetoric and logic from before the rebranding process,” Marinakis stressed. Although the government says it does not use Tsipras’s administration as its benchmark, the constant reminders of his record and of the dangers associated with the 2015–2019 period indicate that the ruling party is once again employing the familiar “manual” for confronting Tsipras—one that proved effective in both 2019 and 2023.

Gradually, the ruling party will also include PASOK alongside Alexis Tsipras in the equation, reviving the narrative of a “patchwork government” that had also surfaced in 2023, against the backdrop of the absence of an alternative governing scheme to the proposal New Democracy then made for single-party rule.

“Mr. Androulakis’s PASOK plays on the same field as Tsipras—that of populism, handout politics, and easy slogans,” Marinakis emphasized, adding that PASOK headquarters on Harilaou Trikoupi Street is currently particularly anxious “because usually when you play away from home, the home team has the advantage.” In this metaphor, the “home team” is Alexis Tsipras.

The Fanaras message

In this complex environment, the rather angry response of veteran pollster Stratos Fanaras to PASOK officials questioning polling methodologies should not go unnoticed. Specifically, they had criticized polling companies for presenting vote estimates using extrapolation methods.

“Vote estimation and vote extrapolation are carried out in every country in the world and by almost all major research companies because they are based on simple or complex statistical techniques—not on pollsters’ ‘magic tricks,’” Fanaras stressed.

“The main problem in their case is not methodological. It is that some of them called those who use extrapolation ‘frauds,’” Fanaras wrote, warning: “The fact that they avoided lawsuits at the last minute should not be taken as a certainty for the future.”

Voter consolidation and targeting key groups

In any case, the government’s benchmark will be its own performance against the promises it made, although polls continue to reflect a difficult environment for the ruling party as well.

Yesterday’s poll by Interview for Political drew particular attention because it showed Tsipras’s under-construction party surpassing PASOK in vote estimates. However, New Democracy itself still remains well below levels associated with parliamentary self-sufficiency, standing at 30.1% in vote estimates.

Clearly, New Democracy’s realistic objective will not be achieving single-party rule from the first election, but rather securing the highest possible percentage beginning with a “3,” given that the scenario of a second election remains wide open.

Under these circumstances, New Democracy aims to reconnect with voter groups that supported it in 2023, including freelancers, farmers, and younger voters. More broadly, the party is focusing on citizens under 40, including productive social groups heavily pressured by the cost of living and frustrated by issues related to institutions or state negligence.

In any case, the government continues warning against protest voting, arguing that in the past it has cost society dearly. According to the message from the Prime Minister’s office, protest parties that became governing parties created far more problems than they solved.