Washington expressed cautious optimism yesterday, Thursday, hoping that diplomatic efforts will allow progress and lead to an agreement that will end the war with Iran, saying it expects a Pakistani mediator to visit Tehran.

“I believe the Pakistanis are going to Tehran tomorrow (i.e. today, Friday). We hope this will allow things to move forward,” said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, before traveling to Sweden to attend a NATO summit.

US Secretary of State Rubio referred yesterday to progress in indirect talks. A day earlier, President Donald Trump spoke of a situation “on the edge” between reaching a deal or the resumption of hostilities.

According to Iran’s ISNA news agency and other media, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, Asim Munir, is expected in the Iranian capital to “continue talks with Iranian officials.” Pakistan has not officially confirmed the trip so far.

Islamabad has recently increased its mediation efforts. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled twice to Tehran within a few days to deliver the latest US proposal, which Iran says it is examining.

However, the Islamic Republic continues to insist on its demands, including the “unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad” and the end of the US blockade on Iranian ports, while repeatedly stating it will never back down in the face of “intimidation.”

The Revolutionary Guards — Iran’s ideological army — are warning that if war resumes, it “will this time expand far beyond the region.”

“Red zone”

Since a fragile ceasefire was announced on April 8 after more than a month of war, negotiations have stalled, with both sides sticking to their positions and exchanging threats.

The only meeting between delegations from both sides, on April 11 in Islamabad, ended without results.

The war, which began with a US and Israeli attack on Tehran on February 28, has killed thousands, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, where the Hezbollah movement operates. Israel has entered the country, occupied territory, and continues strikes despite a nominal ceasefire.

Nine people were injured yesterday in a strike on a hospital in Tebnin, southern Lebanon, according to authorities in Beirut.

According to Trump, a deal would save “a lot of time, energy, and lives,” and could be concluded “very quickly, within a few days.”

The White House is looking for a way to end this war, unpopular domestically and increasingly disruptive to the global economy, mainly due to the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz by Tehran. Normally, one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East pass through it.

The oil market risks entering a “red zone” with supply shortages in July or August if no lasting resolution is reached, warns the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Tolls

US media reported a “dispute” between Donald Trump and his close ally Benjamin Netanyahu, citing a tense phone call on Tuesday.

Israel seeks the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, its sworn enemy, while for the US the priority remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if that requires a deal with the current regime, says Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Meanwhile, Rubio criticized NATO allies for refusing to “do anything” to support Washington in the war with Iran, which has “deeply annoyed” the Trump administration.

In Hormuz, Iran has formalized the creation of a body tasked with overseeing the strategically important maritime passage and, in principle, collecting tolls.

The “Authority of the Strait of the Persian Gulf” has also claimed a control zone extending to waters south of the UAE port of Fujairah, part of Abu Dhabi’s strategy to bypass the strait.

Iran is “attempting to impose a new reality,” a UAE presidential adviser said on X, calling the Iranian plan “fantasies.”

The UAE has also announced a new aid package worth more than €350 million for various companies.

The economic impact of the conflict is also affecting the eurozone, with the European Commission revising downward its growth forecasts for the 21 countries sharing the single currency.