Hello, we plunged into the full force of summer the day before yesterday, with temperatures hitting 35°C and a sudden heatwave. We also had a triple earthquake in Euboea, just so we don’t get too comfortable, and… a bit of political drama as well, namely yet another breakup of SYRIZA. Honestly, this ought to be taught in political history: how many times can a party disintegrate over the course of three years with the goal of bringing back the same leader in order to get rid of a dozen or so unwanted members? In any case, it will be interesting to see the next polls and whether the 2% that remains with SYRIZA will be added to Alexis’s ELAS, which is already looking down on Nikos A. from above and causing major turmoil within PASOK. I asked pollsters whether Tsipras’s party, in these first days of its existence, shows signs of strengthening or weakening—because parties usually start out higher—and they told me that, depending on the survey, it appears to be gaining anywhere from 0.3% to a full percentage point. By contrast, PASOK seems headed straight for single-digit territory according to the same sources, but let’s wait and see.

Pavlos Marinakis

Now then, you already read on Friday about Mitsotakis’s decision to appoint Kyranakis as party secretary. What emerged over the last four or five days is the prime minister’s idea of replacing Kyranakis at the Ministry of Transport (railways) with another young and successful politician in his current role, Pavlos Marinakis. You might say: yes, but how would he fill the crucial—especially with elections approaching—position of government spokesperson, a role in which Marinakis has admittedly performed well? How easy would it be to find someone else? Besides, Mitsotakis does not easily change things when they are working well for him—and rightly so. My source says that the PM informed Pavlos on Saturday of his intention to move him to the Transport Ministry, clarifying that he has not finalized the decision in his mind and will make the final call upon returning from America—that is, today, or tomorrow at the latest, if you ask me. Now, what can I tell you about what he will ultimately decide… this is Mitsotakis we’re talking about. But perhaps the complaints from Kostis, and from Nikoula as well—they all run in Athens B (including Pavlos)—and the fierce competition there may have played a role, since the government spokesperson is constantly front and center in the media by definition. Who would replace him? Some have mentioned Theodorikakos, but I don’t believe it because Takis is perhaps too senior for the role. Others mention Deputy Minister Kotsiras, but in contrast he would not have enough time to become known to the public before the elections, and voters are slow to place their trust in new faces. I consider Sdoukou more likely, since she is already in the orbit and is also a woman. If Mitsotakis ultimately decides on a change—which, based on instinct rather than information, I’m not really expecting.

The baptism and the gossip

I should tell you, however, that all weekend the rumors were flying. At the baptism on Saturday morning in Psychiko of the son of Mitsotakis’s former associate Elpidoforos Papanikolopoulos and Evina Giakoumatou, there was extensive discussion of all the scenarios, given that many ministers and figures from the Prime Minister’s Office were present. Little Dimitris’s godfather was Mitsotakis adviser and Elpi’s political mentor, Thanasis Nezis. Present at the Church of Agia Sofia in Psychiko were, among others, the new party secretary Konstantinos Kyranakis, Niki Kerameus, Sofia Zacharaki, Giorgos Vrettakos, Michalis Bekiris, Giorgos Katsaounos, and many officials from the Athens regional administration. Needless to say, both at the church and later at the luncheon at Il Giardino, the anticipated cabinet reshuffle was the main topic of conversation.

Samaras’s inner circle

Samaras has made his decision regarding a new party and is already working on organizational matters. In fact, I am told he is targeting the last day of August. Around him is a group of people who have been with him for many years. In reality, it is a transfer of the old New Democracy leadership team from about a decade ago. There is his chief of staff Kostas Bouras, Chrysanthos Lazaridis, press office director Nikos Tsioutsias, Sakis Mitropoulos who is constantly by his side, while organizational roles are being played by Kostas Tsimaras, Thanasis Skordas, Manolis Angelakas, and Giorgos Louloudakis. The latter’s wife, in fact, appears highly active in a Facebook supporters’ group for Samaras where political networking is taking place. The question is: under current circumstances, how many Mitsotakis voters can this group—and Samaras himself—draw away? And what exactly will they be saying? Because all those remarks about patriotic duties never going into retirement, which Samaras himself used to make, unfortunately inspire only sadness. Anyway, I think we still have a long road ahead.

Real estate portfolios: the market is not functioning — INTRUM halted ICHOR

According to information, INTRUM decided to stop the ICHOR transaction process (ichor being, in Greek mythology, the blood of the gods) because it judged that the financial offers it received were not satisfactory. ICHOR was a real estate portfolio worth more than €100 million. Through this transaction—which shared certain characteristics with the hotel portfolio package, such as investments that would create added value—INTRUM sought to explore whether there was room in Greece for large-scale cash acquisitions of real estate portfolios. Although real estate is considered attractive collateral and domestic prices are rising, the market took a different view, as the offers submitted were unsatisfactory. Major institutional investors who had purchased in Italy and Spain, as well as the usual suspects, did not participate in the process. INTRUM will now sell these properties individually while also preparing other transactions. The conclusion is that Greece does not have a deep market for real estate portfolios.

Hopes placed in the Ministry of Finance

With regard to the Supreme Court’s decision concerning borrowers under the Katseli Law, all attention has turned to whatever initiatives the Ministry of Finance may take to avoid fiscal losses arising from state guarantees. Contrary to those who argue there is ambiguity regarding when a claim arises and similar issues, some legal experts say that if a court determines that a borrower paid more than was owed, there is no issue of retroactivity because the excess amount should simply be offset against future installments. It is certain that the ruling opens the door to new lawsuits from borrowers. However, it does not easily extend to borrowers who used the out-of-court settlement mechanism, because most of those loans were restructured at fixed interest rates for seven years, and fixed-rate loans do not present the same issue.

The rare confession of Panos Germanos

Those who know Panos Germanos know that he does not enjoy public appearances. He does not give interviews, does not typically deliver speeches, and rarely talks about himself. That is why his receiving the Alba Business Unusual Award on Thursday evening attracted special interest. Not so much because of the award itself, but because of what was revealed during an evening that became a rare public retrospective on the life and career of one of Greece’s most influential yet discreet entrepreneurs. A total of 305 guests gathered in the garden of Anassa City Events: business leaders, bankers, academics, corporate executives, and Alba students. Among the guests were TITAN Group Chairman Dimitris Papalexopoulos, Quest Group Chairman Theodoros Fessas, Accenture executive Kyriakos Sambatakakis, Michalis Tsamaz, and Panagis Vourloumis, the man who, as head of OTE nearly two decades ago, completed the acquisition of the Germanos retail chain. Panos Germanos himself arrived accompanied by his wife, Efi Kopola, and their four daughters. Perhaps the presence of his family set the tone from the beginning for an evening that was far more personal than business-oriented. A decisive role was played by the 32-minute video shown before the award ceremony. The film began in Milies, Elis, with the honoree’s childhood years and ended with the creation of Olympia Group. Despite its length, it held the audience’s attention throughout. Perhaps because most people knew Panos Germanos’s businesses, but very few truly knew his personal journey. The film revealed unknown aspects of his life and crucial milestones in his entrepreneurial career, from the development of the Germanos retail chain to investments in Play in Poland and Sunlight. The award was then presented by Alba’s rector, followed not by a conventional speech but by a conversation with Pavlos Tsimas. There, Panos Germanos appeared perhaps more open than he has ever been in public. He spoke about his failures, insisting that they shaped him more than his successes. “We always talk about successes, and those are what remain. However, failures may have even greater value. My failures went deeper into me.” He recalled his first steps as a door-to-door book salesman. “It took me ten days before I could knock on someone’s door to sell something. I was shy. But in the end, that defined me. I learned to overcome my fears and myself. And I learned to see each customer as an individual rather than as part of a mass.” He described the transition from batteries to mobile telephony as a decision that required both speed and the ability to persuade others to follow him. “When you see something, you have to convince others to follow you. I saw the potential in mobile telephony. We had to move quickly and be first.” He also did not hesitate to discuss mistakes along the way. He recalled the early implementation of the franchise model in the Germanos chain, admitting that the formula was not found immediately. “I experimented with franchising. Mistakes were made at the beginning, and then we struggled to correct them, but eventually we figured it out.” And when asked what his next entrepreneurial move would be if he were 30 years old today, he gave perhaps the most interesting answer of the evening. “If I were 30 today with the mind and experience I have now, I wouldn’t do any of the things I’ve done so far.” A statement that contained the admission that many of his greatest successes were based on risks that his current experience would probably not allow him to take. When asked about selling the retail chain that bore his name to OTE, his answer perfectly reflected his approach: “I didn’t see it that way. I didn’t feel that I was abandoning my name. It reached a point where I had to take the next step, and that’s what I did.” The most emotional moment of the evening, however, came immediately after he received the award. “This is not my award. It is wrong for a single person to be honored.” He then began mentioning, one by one, the people who had been part of his journey. Deeply moved, he paid special tribute to his close colleague at Play and former company CEO, Jørgen Bang-Jensen, who recently passed away. He also highlighted Giannis Karagiannis, with whom he has worked for three decades, and publicly thanked Andreas Athanasopoulos, Lambros Bisalas, and the executives who helped shape—and continue to shape—the Olympia Group. A little later, he perhaps explained better than anything else how he views his own career: “In my passion and drive, I often spilled the bucket of milk. Fortunately, I always had people beside me to gather up the milk from the floor.” Once again, he gave credit to his team. He also made special mention of his wife and four daughters. “It is not easy to be devoted to entrepreneurship while having a wife and four children.” He publicly acknowledged the support they provided throughout the years and thanked them. Perhaps that is ultimately the most interesting conclusion of the evening. At a time when entrepreneurs often speak about their personal vision, Panos Germanos chose to speak about the people around him. It was no coincidence that he reminded the audience that his own momentum often led him to “spill the bucket of milk,” and that there were always people around him helping him correct his mistakes. Nor is it a coincidence that the group he created now operates with professional management teams and strict corporate governance rules. After all, it is one of the few examples of a Greek entrepreneur who did not choose the path of family succession in executive positions, instead insisting on staffing the group with professional management structures. The event began at eight in the evening and concluded shortly after one in the morning. The last person to leave was the honoree himself, as he wanted to personally greet and thank every guest who had come to celebrate his journey. A small detail, perhaps, but one that revealed a great deal about the man who stood at the center of the evening.

The Bank of Chania is selling “Samaria” at a price 50% higher than the Attica Group’s offer

ETANAP – Samaria, the bottled water company based in Stylos, Apokoronas, Chania, and known for the brands “Samaria” and “Lefka Ori,” is now in the final stage of changing ownership. As was revealed at last Saturday’s general assembly, the Cooperative Bank of Chania has reached an agreement with Greek investors for the sale of its stake, as part of the mandatory divestment required by the Bank of Greece following its acquisition of a nationwide banking license. What is particularly notable is that the agreement appears to close at a price at least 50% higher than the €10 per share that Attica Group had offered about two years ago in order to acquire control of the company. That proposal did not proceed at the time, as the main shareholders and management believed it did not reflect the company’s true value. The chairman of the Cooperative Bank of Chania, Michalis Marakakis, revealed that the bank is obliged to dispose of the 28.5% it holds in the company, while the interested investors aim to acquire a stake of over 50%. He also stated that small shareholders will be given the option to participate in the transaction, and if they wish, they will be able to sell their shares at the same price received by the Bank of Chania. It was no coincidence that both he and ETANAP’s chairman and CEO, Manolis Apostolakis, directly addressed shareholders, suggesting that this is an opportunity unlikely to be repeated once control is concentrated in a single main shareholder. Mr. Apostolakis even urged small shareholders to seriously consider selling their shares, estimating that the company’s next phase will be different after nearly five decades of operating without a dominant shareholder. All this comes while the company continues to show strong financial performance. According to figures presented at the general assembly, in 2025 it recorded revenue of €20.7 million, pre-tax profits of €4.35 million, and net profits of €3.41 million, while the board proposed a dividend distribution of €0.60 per share. If the transaction is completed, the company—one of the most characteristic widely held enterprises in the Greek regions for nearly 50 years—will for the first time come under strong majority ownership, marking the end of a long-standing chapter and the beginning of a new one for the “Samaria” and “Lefka Ori” waters.

The World Cup bet for Allwyn

The World Cup begins next Thursday, and gambling companies are preparing for significant turnover. In a short note on Allwyn, Eurobank Equities estimates that the contribution of the FIFA World Cup to betting revenues could add 10% to turnover in the betting segment. However, this does not necessarily translate into gross revenue, as it will depend heavily on the performance of the teams favored to win the tournament. The major “bet” for Allwyn is not so much increasing online traffic—which is already very strong in the first quarter and continues its momentum—but rather generating additional revenue from combined sales on its online gaming platform (casino, poker, etc.), which has higher profitability. At the same time, from July 1, the change in tax rates must be taken into account, with the brokerage noting that for every 1% change in gaming tax, operating profit shifts by approximately 4–5%. In recent days, Allwyn’s stock has gained significant ground, returning to levels of €13.50 after a +13.5% rebound in ten trading sessions, bringing the group’s market capitalization to €10.9 billion.

Saunas, nuclear energy, and AI: discussions in Helsinki with PPC present

Anyone attending the Eurelectric annual Power Summit in Helsinki would have noticed that this year’s agenda went far beyond traditional energy issues. In the corridors of the conference, which gathers the CEOs of Europe’s largest energy groups every year, discussions were dominated by artificial intelligence, data centers, and their rapidly increasing electricity needs. PPC CEO Georgios Stassis, who is also Vice President of Eurelectric, participated in the proceedings and held a series of meetings with top executives from the European energy sector and institutional representatives. His presence in the association’s leadership reflects PPC’s strengthened position in recent years at the core of European utilities. The tone was set in the opening speech by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who reminded the audience that Finland has been ranked the happiest country in the world for seven consecutive years. This remark sparked commentary in a country where abundant cheap electricity, nuclear power generation, and saunas—almost in every home—are an integral part of daily life and, according to many, linked to the consistently high happiness rankings. Discussions focused heavily on investments in data centers and Europe’s need to strengthen its position in artificial intelligence while maintaining control over critical data and digital infrastructure. In this context, PPC’s plans for large data centers in Western Macedonia were also discussed. Returns of around 10% (IRR) from energy and building infrastructure are considered attractive, although concerns were raised about how such a rapidly evolving market will develop. The discussion inevitably extended to the geopolitical dimension of AI, with many noting that Europe must find its place between the United States and China, both of which dominate the race in AI and digital infrastructure. Nuclear energy also featured prominently, as the surge in electricity demand from data centers is reviving the debate across Europe. PPC believes developments should be closely monitored and expertise should be developed through research programs on small modular reactors (SMRs), although it is not considered realistic to base current investment strategy on a technology with a 10–15 year horizon.

From squatters in Koukaki to a grand hotel

From the Koukaki squatters to a grand hotel: another hotel, backed by Israeli capital, is coming to Koukaki, with a particularly interesting history behind the property—a clear example of what is often called “everything wrong.” The ground-floor building at 3 Arvali Street, just a stone’s throw from the Acropolis, was among the properties that had been occupied during the previous decade by the so-called “Koukaki Squat Community,” in an area that has changed dramatically since 2015 due to the rise of tourism in Athens, long losing its neighborhood character and becoming a typical case of Airbnb-driven monoculture. At the beginning of this decade, the building—after being evacuated by squatters and sealed with concrete blocks—passed into Israeli ownership, as has happened with many other properties in central Athens. The next step is the complete demolition of the small building and its replacement with a six-story structure to be used as a hotel, pending the necessary permits, which are not easy to obtain due to the area’s proximity to the Acropolis and involvement of the Ministry of Culture.

With tourism in focus

The story of the famous Swedish crystal Kosta Boda Illum in Greece is both long and rather bittersweet. Through Agelco, founded by Panagiotis and Afroditi Angelonidi, the products achieved a remarkable success story in the market. The chain reached 52 stores at its peak, generated turnover of around €20 million, and even planned a stock market listing. However, everything was lost in one night in February 2012, when the historic neoclassical Tsiller building at the corner of Stadiou and Christou Lada streets was destroyed by fire, completely burning down the historic “Attikon” and “Apollon” cinemas as well as the Kosta Boda store that had operated there since 1972. Despite this major setback, the Angelonidi family—especially the next generation, Karolina Angelonidi with her husband, businessman Giorgos Sarantopoulos—recreated a similar venture with a different orientation. This led to the Studio Illum Hotel & Restaurant on Kifisias Avenue in Neo Psychiko, aiming to become a key supplier for high-end hotels and restaurants. Recently, a new company called Studio Illum HO.RE.CA S.A. was established in Pallini, with activities including importing, representation, and trading of hotel equipment and related goods, as well as technical studies for hotel renovation and design. The company has initial capital of €25,000 and shareholders including Celebrate Real Estate, Hotelux-Hotel Equipment Experts, and AVE Participation Limited, with a board consisting of Thomas Roubas (Chairman), Apostolos Voulgaris (Vice Chairman), Giorgos Sarantopoulos (CEO), and others.

Crowding in money and capital markets

Everyone is rushing to get ahead—trying to take advantage of abundant liquidity in the markets, beat potential interest rate increases, possible elections, or broader geopolitical instability. Tomorrow, Motor Oil will tap the markets to refinance a €400 million eurobond maturing on July 19, 2026, aiming for a coupon slightly above 3%. Optima Bank will also issue a €150 million perpetual bond, targeting a rate just above 6%. Lamda Development’s new corporate bond begins trading tomorrow, while the Athens International Airport is also preparing a bond issuance. At the same time, Attica Department Stores under IDEAL Group are heading to the stock exchange via a capital increase, and ADMIE is holding a general meeting on June 11 for a €1 billion capital increase (with €250–260 million effectively sought). Together with shipping companies turning toward the Greek capital market, the climate strongly resembles the investment boom of 2021.

The success of Lamda and the stagnation of the stock

The public offering of the new seven-year bond — aimed at raising €350 million — was 1.7 times oversubscribed. Of all savers, 90% (316,000 bonds) went to retail investors and only 10% to institutional investors. The 2020 bond had an interest rate of 3.4%. The new bond was locked in at 4.20%, i.e. just 80 basis points higher, in an environment where ECB interest rates have completed an entire cycle and geopolitical uncertainty — from the war in Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz — has dramatically reshaped the cost of risk. Lamda essentially borrowed at a similar cost in 2026 as in 2020, and this is an element of the de facto market assessment of the progress of the Ellinikon project. Total cash inflows from property sales and leases at the Ellinikon have exceeded €1.7 billion from the start of the investment until April 2026. The projects are progressing, the shopping centers are filling up, and Little Athens is being sold at prices that exceed initial forecasts by 30–40%. And here comes the question, which does not have an easy answer: If the bond market trusts Lamda so much — to the extent that it lends €350 million, with 1.7x oversubscription and an interest rate almost the same as in 2020 — why is the stock still 15% lower than it was six months ago and its market capitalization barely exceeds €1 billion?

Banking comeback on the Stock Exchange

Banks led the upward rebound on Friday with gains of 1.14%, putting a stop to the sector’s three-day corrective streak and pulling the General Index higher. Investor sentiment is being fueled by successive upgrades from foreign houses, with Deutsche Bank praising the fundamentals of Greek financial institutions, which are outperforming thanks to a macroeconomic environment clearly more resilient than the rest of Europe. Strong credit expansion to businesses, stable interest margins, and increased fee income are creating visible and predictable profitability, shielding the sector from geopolitical shocks. At the same time, valuations remain highly attractive, as Greek stocks trade at a significant discount compared to their European peers, leaving upside potential that often exceeds 30%. Indicative is Deutsche Bank’s new report raising target prices for Alpha Bank to €4.8, Eurobank to €5, Piraeus Bank to €10.15, National Bank to €17.1, and Bank of Cyprus to €11.25. Meanwhile, interest remains strong for the fifth banking pillar, CrediaBank, which — following a successful capital increase — is preparing for its inclusion in the Euronext Athens large-cap index in two weeks. Regarding concerns about the Supreme Court decision, banking circles clarify that the impact concerns future calculations, while provisions have already been made for non-performing loans. The issue affects servicers more, they clarify. Under this prism, the banking sector appears ready to lead the Athens Stock Exchange toward a breakout above last February’s highs.

Record highs for Trade Estates, below the capital increase for Trastor

Two of the most important companies in the REIT sector on the Athens Stock Exchange are moving in opposite directions, reflecting different investor behaviors. On one hand, Trade Estates is recording an excellent performance, reaching €2.08, a price that marks a new record since its listing on the stock exchange in November 2023. The stock is supported by strong fundamentals and its development plans, such as the new retail park in Ellinikon expected to be completed in 2029, as well as the upcoming detachment of the remaining dividend of €0.065 per share on June 18 (with payment starting June 24). On the other hand, strong concern prevails among Trastor REIC shareholders, as the stock has disappointed. From €1.345 on May 8, it fell to €0.934 on June 5, recording total losses exceeding 30%. This development pushed the stock below the price of its recent capital increase of €1 per share (at a total €150 million capital raise), leading Trastor to a four-year low. Specifically, the stock had not been at these levels since January 2022, when on 7/1/2022 it closed at €0.93.

Maneuvers for a strategic investor in Proodeftiki (but don’t take it as guaranteed)

The official announcement for the Extraordinary General Meeting on July 2 finally brings to light a story that for months was moving behind closed doors, disputes, and courtrooms. The sole item on Proodeftiki S.A.’s agenda is the election of a new Board of Directors. Reports suggest that discussions are already underway by the incoming new management with strategic investors regarding the company’s future. With the stock at €0.25 and a total market capitalization of €6.08 million, the discussion centers on the low valuation accompanied by equally weak financial performance. Why would someone buy a shell company today? The head of the new situation appears to be Charilaos Koutounidis, on whose behalf National Financial Services LLC acts as custodian, typically operating for institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals with significant available investment capital.

Intracom Holdings’ cash-rich position

Intracom Holdings has a full cash position and is preparing its next move. In 2025 it liquidated its stake in AKTOR for €74.8 million, posted EBITDA of €27.5 million and net profits of €16.7 million. This was followed by the agreement with CrediaBank for Europa Insurance, which for Intracom means a 25% gain and entry into the shareholder structure of a growing bancassurance group, while simultaneously freeing up capital that can be deployed elsewhere. The next step is the Bally’s–Intralot deal with UK-based Evoke. Completion is expected in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. For Intracom as a shareholder of Intralot, the upside from a successful global acquisition is not insignificant. The holding’s market capitalization is approaching €310 million and is already 27% higher than its valuation three months ago.

Silicon Valley is playing with fire

This week, two of the most emblematic technology companies are sending — simultaneously — contradictory messages to the markets. Anthropic is calling for a global slowdown in artificial intelligence development, warning that “recursive self-improvement” — the ability of systems to improve themselves without human intervention — could emerge very soon, in less than two years. At the same time, the same company filed a confidential S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, preparing its own IPO, while calling on others to slow down. On the other side is SpaceX. On June 12 it will be listed on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, with an issue price of $135 per share, having raised $75 billion and starting with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. It is the largest IPO in capital markets history, with 21 major banks (led by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup) supporting the offering. The stock’s performance in the first trading sessions will act as a market referendum. If investors accept and absorb a $1.75 trillion valuation for the newly listed company, then risk appetite remains high despite turbulence. If, however, Wall Street “punishes” SpaceX, the tech sector will receive its first serious lesson on where optimism ends. Anthropic will be watching developments closely, knowing that its own $965 billion valuation will largely be judged by what the market decides about SpaceX on Thursday.

An unforgettable Friday

Last Friday will remain unforgettable on Wall Street. It was officially announced that unemployment remained steady at 4.3% and that 172,000 new jobs were created in May, nearly double analysts’ expectations. The good news for the Trump administration triggered one of the worst sell-offs of the year. The Wall Street Journal illustrated the story with a striking chart showing the three major indices moving calmly during the first week of June within a narrow ±0.5% range. After the jobs report on June 5, the chart turned into a steep decline. The Nasdaq — more sensitive to interest rate changes due to high tech valuations — plunged sharply to -4.7% to -5%. The S&P 500 followed at -2.6%, while the Dow proved more resilient due to its composition and closed at -1.4%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 7 basis points to 4.54%, while the 2-year surged 11 points to 4.16%, its highest since early 2025. All asset classes fell: gold, bitcoin, oil — everything that had risen in the previous rally collapsed within hours. The S&P 500 closed at 7,383 points, ending a nine-week winning streak, the longest since 2023. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike by December 2026 and about a 60% probability of a move as early as October. The AI-driven tech selloff was broad, with the S&P 500 Information Technology sector down -5.8%, the “AI Winners” basket down -7.0%, memory stocks collapsing -11%, and the semiconductor index posting its worst day since the 2020 crisis. WTI crude also fell to around $90. Gold dropped below its 200-day moving average, erasing all year-to-date gains, while Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, reversing all post-election gains. Two weeks before the first monetary policy meeting of new Fed Chair Kevin Wars on June 16–17, the market sent its own message: the cost of money and Federal Reserve rates are more frightening than anything else for Wall Street.

The “black hole” of Strategy’s $10 billion Bitcoin exposure

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is once again in the spotlight, as it faces unrealized losses of approximately $10 billion from its Bitcoin positions. Dividend obligations on the company’s new preferred shares may turn the company — from the largest Bitcoin buyer — into a potential forced seller. Until now, the company’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy worked because purchases were funded mainly through common stock issuance, convertible bonds, and other instruments without immediate cash obligations. However, new preferred share products such as STRC and STRD come with required payouts to investors. Strategy holds about 4% of the total global Bitcoin supply, making its balance sheet one of the most influential factors in the cryptocurrency market. For now, most analysts maintain the base case that Strategy will continue to refinance through capital markets and will not be forced to sell Bitcoin. However, as payment obligations for interest and dividends increase, the investment story shifts from a simple bet on Bitcoin’s rise to a more complex analysis of cash flows, leverage, and funding capacity.

Forecasts for SpaceX

SpaceX stock begins trading next Friday, but predictions in betting markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) about the company’s business and market performance are heating up. The most interesting betting outcomes include: whether SpaceX will land humans on Mars before 2030 (Yes — 17% probability), whether Elon Musk’s personal wealth will exceed $1 trillion before 2027 (Yes, 89%) or before 2030 (Yes, 96%), and when the spacecraft will be launched from Florida (before 2027, 45% probability). Regarding stock performance, the prevailing estimate is that the market capitalization will reach $2–2.5 trillion at the close of the first trading day (69–75% probability). However, there are also scenarios that suggest increased volatility over a one-month horizon. In short: fasten your seatbelts — the journey to space will be turbulent.