Hello. Yesterday passed in the aftermath of the dramatic event involving the death of an innocent woman, while efforts are underway to identify and arrest the perpetrators—who are not some “big names of terrorism,” but the usual suspects who come and go through the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTH), student dormitories, or other anarchist hangouts that are constantly emptied and constantly filled again. People who are arrested and then released a few hours later. At the same time, there are also some legal considerations underway about merging case files and linking arson cases of this kind, in the hope of gathering up some of these dozens of unbelievable individuals who remained—and still remain—“untouched” since the summer of 2019, when Kyriakos Mitsotakis and New Democracy came to power, despite their claims. On this front, the government has achieved nothing. You may say it’s too late now, we lost an innocent person, but since it is unfortunately mathematically certain that something similar will happen again and more lives will be lost, they should do something even now.

Conspiracy with grilled chops

Much discussion was triggered by the former night’s dinner of Antonis Samaras with three New Democracy MPs who are, of course, long-time friends: Babis Athanasiou, Giorgos Karasmanis, and Theofilos Leontaridis. As is already known, none of them intend to join a Samaras party; the only MP who will definitely follow the “Messinian” is Miltiadis Chrysomallis, because blood is thicker than water. However, they were not exactly welcomed with joy at Maximos Mansion upon seeing three MPs dining with Samaras, who, day by day, is firing shots at the government, despite personal relationships. After a discussion at the morning “coffee meeting,” the role of intermediary was taken by the usual suspect Kostas Hatzidakis, who called Athanasiou. I understand that Babis told him something like: “If we wanted to conspire with Samaras, would we have gone for grilled chops at a taverna in Pangrati where everyone could see us?” He also said their aim was to act as bridges, given their good relations. Now, Maximos asked them to issue a clarification, which they did. In any case, Samaras is preparing, working day and night on recruiting personnel, but don’t expect anything fresh or impressive—only whatever has been left out since his own era or that of K.K.R.

Samaras – poll

Since we are on Samaras, I was struck by the recent Marc survey (on Antenna). If the survey is accurate, it appears that New Democracy would suffer the smallest losses from the party under formation by Samaras; on the contrary, even though we are talking about very low percentages, Alexis Tsipras, Alexis Tsipras, also loses noticeably, as do Karystianou, Vellopoulos, and even PASOK. Again, nothing dramatic—all together they amount to 3%–4% for Samaras’ party, which is why I think he will reconsider.

The digital work card pays widows’ pensions

Yesterday’s announcement by Niki Kerameus regarding the non-cutting of widows’ pensions was a move that relieved many citizens who rely on this money. Moreover, widows (and widowers, of course) are a favorable voter base for New Democracy, which performs well among older age groups. The measure has a cost of around €50 million per year, but Minister Niki was able to announce it because she is seeing huge overperformance figures from the digital work card. Only in the January–April four-month period, excess revenues of €517 million emerged, above the medium-term target, which creates much larger fiscal space both for the Ministry of Labour and for the government as a whole. Last year’s corresponding overperformance exceeded €800 million and was translated into contribution cuts and the abolition of the personal difference. The digital work card today covers 2.5 million workers, while in 2025 there were 2.7 million more declared overtime hours compared to 2024, with increases of up to +1,200% in certain sectors. Every declared overtime hour means a contribution that previously disappeared into “black” labor. It is worth remembering that when the digital work card was first implemented, it was met with skepticism and even ridicule.

The… Cretan Metsola and the digital euro

That Roberta Metsola is one of Greece’s best “friends” in the EU is well known—it is confirmed by all her meetings with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Therefore, her recent meeting with Kyriakos Pierrakakis could not have taken a different tone. The President of the European Parliament even revealed to the President of the Eurogroup that she has Greek roots on her mother’s side—from Corfu. Since this is a meeting between two heads of European institutions, Metsola and Pierrakakis focused on the digital euro—a topic the Greek Finance Minister strongly insists on, as he considers it key for the European economy. According to reports, the relevant legislative act has passed the stage of processing by the competent committee of the European Parliament and is expected within the current month to proceed to a vote in plenary.

A resignation and a meeting

A matter of time is the resignation of Kostas Zaharidis from SYRIZA, which will be accompanied by a platform text for convergence with Alexis Tsipras’s “EL.AS.” (as mentioned). He will be the second executive to leave after Maria Xenogiannakopoulou and the de facto departure of Giannis Ragousis. While on Tsipras/SYRIZA matters, I am told that an associate recently saw Efi Achtsioglou having coffee at a café near the courts of Loukareos with Giorgos Vassiliadis, Tsipras’ office director.

Larger than ever

The entire political and business system passed yesterday through the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Cultural Center, where the U.S. Embassy held—after a one-year pause—its traditional reception for July 4th. This year’s celebration was large, “larger than ever,” with over 3,000 guests, two levels for attendees, one for the general crowd and a VIP room for about 800 people. Even at the entrances, patience and waiting were required for the necessary screening. There is no point in overinterpreting some presences; practically everyone was there except Mitsotakis, who however hosted a special dinner at Maximos Mansion for Ambassador Guilfoyle and several key figures in Greek–American relations. Slightly more interesting may be Samaras’ first appearance in a social event after a long time, as well as the first public appearance of President Maria, who has scheduled several meetings with ambassadors from various countries in the coming weeks.

Big players for the Greek Saltworks

The pre-selection of seven investment groups for the second phase of the tender for the concession of at least 51% of Hellenic Saltworks, which operates seven active saltworks across the country (the best known being in Messolonghi), demonstrates strong interest in the company. In addition to domestic and foreign salt industries, bidders include food groups with presence in trade and distribution, as well as retailers, and some particularly interesting partnerships have emerged. The seven schemes include, among others, a Cypriot consortium (M.P. Theodorou and Salinity Group AB), Kalas SA, a consortium involving Pitsias SA and Konstantopoulos SA, Unisel SAS with Chion SA, Mantis Trading, Meccanica Group, and Italy’s SOSALT.

The battle for “Eleftherios Venizelos”

From the few but meaningful references by the management of Avax at yesterday’s general assembly, one stood out regarding the tender for the expansion of Athens International Airport. Without creating expectations, management confirmed that Avax participates with a 60% stake in the consortium with Metka (40%), while avoiding any forecast on the award timeline. “We only know the submission schedule,” was essentially the message, indicating they do not wish to pre-judge developments in a complex tender. After the withdrawal of the Terna–Redex scheme, the race for the country’s largest aviation infrastructure project enters its final stretch. The €1 billion project is the “heart” of the investment program of Athens International Airport Eleftherios Venizelos and will largely shape the map of major construction projects in the coming period. With two strong schemes competing and the award expected in the second half of 2026, attention now turns to final bids. Interesting were also the answers regarding the company’s market capitalization. On a shareholder’s comment about the low valuation compared to other major construction groups, CEO Kostas Mitzalis said: “Our stock is undervalued and the others are overvalued.” The group chairman also closed discussion about a possible capital increase, stating that Avax is not considering such a move at present.

AVAX at a new 17-year high

Despite the complaints mentioned above, Avax’s stock is evolving into one of the leading performers in mid-cap companies. With yesterday’s close above €3.7, the share “climbed” to a new 17-year high, reaching price levels not seen since early November 2009. It also completed a five-day rally, recording cumulative gains exceeding 10%. The stock market surge comes as a natural consequence of the group’s fundamental performance. A 47% increase in turnover and net profits of €48 million in 2025 were accompanied by a dividend proposal of €0.10 per share, up 40% compared to the previous year. With an order backlog of €2.8 billion and the strategic target of €150 million EBITDA steadily on track, Avax is capitalizing on the structural restructuring of its business model, attracting buying interest from institutional portfolios.

Share price range €4.53–€4.80 in ElvalHalcor capital increase

Two weeks ago, on June 18, ElvalHalcor announced it will proceed with a capital increase of approximately €250 million via a fully marketed offering with book building. The book opens in the coming days, immediately after the Extraordinary General Meeting on July 9, and the process is expected to be completed by July 15 at the latest. The funds will be used to finance an investment program of €455 million until 2030, while management has selected Goldman Sachs and UBS as Joint Global Coordinators. Sources indicate the coordinators aim for a valuation of €1.7–€1.8 billion during book building. Translated into share price, based on 375.24 million existing shares, this implies a range of €4.53–€4.80 per share, or a discount of 5% to 10.5% versus the current price of €4.95 (market cap €1.85 billion). This corresponds to the issuance of 52–55 million new shares, implying 12–13% dilution for non-participating shareholders, although a priority mechanism is expected for existing shareholders despite the abolition of pre-emption rights. The market reaction has been paradoxical. Instead of the usual pressure accompanying capital increases without rights, the share has moved upward, reclaiming levels of €4.76, €4.92, and €5.18. In other words, the market has already built positions above the pricing range, making the discount an attractive entry point for institutions. The precedent of Cenergy Holdings (a €200 million capital increase with a similar structure) is being used as a guide. The Stasinopoulos group knows how to price offerings so the book is oversubscribed.

Profile and capital return

Profile Software (+7.05% at €8.65), owned by Babis Stasinopoulos (the “other” Stasinopoulos, unrelated to Viohalco), is preparing a substantial capital return to shareholders of around €6 million, i.e. €0.24 per share—about a 3% yield from the previous day’s price and 2.77% from yesterday’s. The return, to be approved at the July 23 General Meeting, comes in addition to the €0.08 dividend approved on June 5, along with a buyback program of up to 1 million treasury shares. Profile’s net cash position rose from €15–16 million in December 2025 to around €20 million on June 30, according to reliable sources. The second quarter is internally described by management as “excellent” and will be reflected in half-year results. In other words, the company generated in one half-year more cash than it is returning to shareholders, even after completing the acquisition of Contemi Solutions in London in February. Plans for acquisitions are not being sacrificed for distributions. Management continues to pursue international expansion and new acquisitions (including defense-related projects), with at least two acquisitions still planned. NBG Securities forecasts net cash above €30 million by 2028 and revenue rising from €47.4 million in 2025 to €70.7 million in 2026, with fair value estimated near €10.2 per share. When a listed company can distribute cash and acquire firms simultaneously, it demonstrates strength.

Sunlight turns back to profitability

Return to profitability for Sunlight Group Energy Storage Systems, which last year implemented cost-saving initiatives that—combined with acquisition synergies and US tax incentives—led to a significant improvement in operating margins. According to published financial statements, although revenue declined by 9% to €942.9 million, the group posted pre-tax profits of €1.6 million versus losses in 2024, while EBITDA rose 18% to €121.1 million. The revenue decline is mainly attributed to exiting lower-margin activities, as well as adverse market conditions in the US and Germany, lower raw material prices, and currency effects. At the same time, cost reductions, acquisition synergies, and US tax incentives improved operating margins significantly. Sunlight continued its investment program, allocating €123.7 million to production investments, R&D, and portfolio restructuring. For 2026, management remains cautiously optimistic, noting uncertainty in the global environment but expecting continued growth in energy storage demand.

New GEK TERNA shares begin trading

New shares of GEK TERNA from the capital increase will begin trading next Monday. Combined market capitalization, including the new shares, reaches €5.47 billion. Next week, MSCI index adjustments are expected due to increased free float (73%), leading to revised weightings for the stock.

Higher ceiling for Coca-Cola HBC

Coca-Cola HBC is one of the major winners of the current bullish cycle on the Athens Stock Exchange. With an impressive run of 8 out of 9 positive sessions and cumulative gains of 13.4%, the stock broke all historical resistance levels, closing at €59.1, with year-to-date performance exceeding +32%. It reached €59.7 intraday, just below €60. Market capitalization now exceeds €22 billion, reinforcing its role as the heaviest stock in the index, while raising the question: is there a ceiling? In the short term, €60 is a strong psychological and technical target, while a mild profit-taking correction is not excluded given overbought conditions. However, the long-term trend remains upward, as fundamentals continue to support growth.

And in Montpellier

A document from the Regional Fire Service Directorate of Western Greece (6th Special Forest Operations Unit), which falls under the Hellenic Fire Service Headquarters and, in turn, under the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, caught my attention. It concerns a “direct award for the remuneration of service provision related to the needs of the Greek Forest Firefighting Unit of the Fire Service that will be deployed in Montpellier, France, for the 2026 fire season.” At first glance, it seems strange—almost like exporting firefighters—especially while we are now fully in the always “hot” summer period. One might wonder whether Greece has already solved its recurring problem of thousands of forest fires every summer and is now sending personnel abroad. But things are not always what they seem. The Greek unit will be deployed to Montpellier as part of the European Pre-positioning Program for firefighters for the 2026 fire season. This program is an annual preventive action of the European Civil Protection Mechanism, providing for the deployment of hundreds of firefighters in high-risk EU member states (which, of course, includes Greece itself) for immediate response and exchange of expertise. The program began in 2022, with Greece being the first country to implement that year’s pilot project. Since then, it has consistently hosted one of the largest pre-positioning teams. Last year, 323 firefighters from Austria, Bulgaria, France, Moldova, Romania, and the Czech Republic were deployed in Attica, Thessaloniki, and Patras. In other words, it is an initiative that brings Greece significant benefits. Thus, the relevant decision refers to the “payment of expenditure for the remuneration of service provision concerning the needs of the Greek Forest Firefighting Unit of the Fire Service, which will be deployed in Montpellier, France, within the framework of the European Pre-positioning Program for firefighters for the 2026 fire season, during the period from 01-07-2026 to 15-07-2026, with departure on 27-06-2026 and return on 18-07-2026,” while the total cost (including VAT) amounts to €32,000.

Aliki Paliou: When markets vote trust

In shipping, the most interesting news is sometimes hidden in the “fine print” of financing. The decision by bondholders to release the collateral of Performance Shipping and accept the conversion of bonds into senior unsecured obligations is not just a technical adjustment. It is a vote of confidence in the management and strategy of the company controlled by Aliki Paliou. Over the past 12 months, Performance Shipping renewed its fleet, secured long-term charters, and significantly improved visibility of future revenues. These moves appear to have convinced investors that the company can now rely more on credibility than on collateral. At a time when access to capital is becoming increasingly demanding, this development may prove more important than yet another vessel order or acquisition. Because in markets, a vote of confidence always carries special weight.

Chandanis’ bet on Athens

Seanergy Maritime Holdings’s decision, led by Stamatis Tsantanis, to raise up to $100 million through Euronext Athens is seen in shipping circles as another test—following Safe Bulkers—of the Greek capital market’s ability to support large-scale investments in one of the economy’s most outward-looking sectors. The company already has access to international bank financing as it is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, while also using other tools such as vessel sales and potential sale-and-leaseback deals. Nevertheless, it is choosing to also turn to Greek investors to fund part of its fleet renewal program. This signals confidence in the domestic capital market and simultaneously serves as a meaningful test of the investment appetite for shipping. A successful issuance could encourage other Greek-owned shipping companies to consider the Greek market as a supplementary financing source, reducing exclusive dependence on foreign capital markets and banks. In a period of rising needs for new vessels and technological upgrades, Seanergy’s move may ultimately prove more significant than the issuance itself.

The shipping puzzle of Greeks: 288 newbuilds, 227 purchases, 316 sales

Greek shipowners continue to reshape their fleet positioning across vessel categories, taking advantage of every market opportunity. On the newbuilding front, activity remains strong. Enesel Group ordered two 64,000 dwt bulk carriers from Jiangsu Hantong shipyards, scheduled for delivery in 2028. Similarly, Goldenport placed orders for two more vessels of the same type at Nantong Xiangyu, with delivery in 2029. In container shipping, Global Ship Lease signed a deal for four 6,200 TEU vessels at Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding, at an estimated cost of around $85 million per vessel, also due for delivery in 2029. Over the past 12 months, Greek shipping interests have placed 288 newbuilding orders (46 bulkers, 136 tankers, 81 containerships, and 22 gas carriers), while also purchasing 227 second-hand vessels (120 bulkers, 81 tankers, 21 containerships, and one gas carrier). At the same time, they sold 316 vessels on the second-hand market (164 bulkers, 116 tankers, 22 containerships, and nine gas carriers).

Waiting for a Japanese “surprise” during Wall Street’s holiday

The Bank of Japan has spent $72 billion since late April to early May to support the yen, with limited success. Yesterday, the USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 162.69, meaning the Japanese currency has depreciated by 13.4% over 12 months. Reuters reported that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is abandoning standard warnings and preparing surprise “ambush-style” interventions to crush speculative positions. From now on, it will avoid any reference to a specific “red line” exchange rate. Today, while the United States celebrates Independence Day with a holiday-shortened trading session, such a sudden intervention is considered quite likely in order to halt yen depreciation. An additional factor is the interest rate gap: the Bank of Japan rate remains at 1%, compared to 3.50%–3.75% for the Federal Reserve. This fuels carry trades and speculative pressure against the yen. Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil further worsens its vulnerability, as every barrel must be purchased in dollars.

The $12 billion that speaks two languages

Behind the June 17 US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding lies a sensitive issue involving $12 billion. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced on June 23 an agreement to release frozen Iranian funds in US banks worth $12 billion. Iran’s total frozen assets worldwide are estimated at $100–120 billion, spread across China, Japan, India, Iraq, and Qatar. However, Washington presents a different version. Donald Trump stated that the funds would remain in an escrow account under US control and be spent exclusively on American food and medicines—corn, wheat, and soybeans. Vice President J.D. Vance revealed that the mechanism, with Qatar as custodian, was designed by Jared Kushner. US soybean producers are suffering from the trade war with China. Iran needs around 22 million tons of grain this year according to the FAO. Meanwhile, Iran’s central bank governor Hemmati denied any obligation to purchase US goods, insisting the $12 billion would be used “for any goods, at any price, in any currency.”