The first substantive plan for the gradual restoration of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is now on the table. Iran and Oman have resumed talks on establishing a joint, temporary transit corridor, seeking to create an organized mechanism for safe movement through a maritime artery that continues to operate under severe restrictions.

The two countries announced that they are considering establishing a temporary shipping channel and agreed to cooperate on clearing the Strait of mines. The initiative is particularly significant because Iran and Oman control the two sides of Hormuz, through which, before the conflict began in February, approximately one-fifth of global seaborne oil and LNG flows passed. This represents a different approach from the individual transits currently taking place, often with tracking systems switched off or under special security conditions. If the plan is implemented, it could provide shipping companies, charterers, and insurers with a clearer framework for planning their voyages.

However, Hormuz cannot yet be considered open. No final agreement, start date, or specific operational protocol has been announced. Critical issues also remain unresolved, such as certification of mine clearance, security guarantees, traffic control, and the response of the United States.

Analysts warn that even a bilateral Iran–Oman agreement would not by itself be enough to restore oil flows to normal levels. In their assessment, it would also require a parallel easing of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and of the sanctions against Tehran.

The picture at sea shows how far diplomatic discussions still are from operational normality. According to preliminary data from Kpler, only five cargo vessels crossed Hormuz on Tuesday, compared with four on Monday and a daily average of 15 over the previous ten days. Two LPG carriers and one bitumen tanker exited the Persian Gulf, while two empty product tankers traveled in the opposite direction. The figures may be revised, as several vessels switch off their AIS during passage through the dangerous zone. The threat remains real. Just on Tuesday, an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near the entrance to the Strait, off the coast of Oman, and was immobilized due to damage to its engine room. The incident is a reminder that shipping companies will need tangible guarantees, not merely a political announcement, before returning to the area in large numbers.

The markets, meanwhile, were quick to price in a first possibility of de-escalation. Brent fell by more than 2%, to $86.41 per barrel, as traders assessed the talks as a possible first step toward increasing the supply passing through the Strait. For shipping, the success of the plan could begin to reduce war-risk premiums, increase the availability of VLCCs and LNG carriers for voyages to the Gulf, and ease the extreme freight premiums currently being paid to vessels willing to accept the risk. Failure of the talks, by contrast, would keep the market in a state of limited capacity and high costs. The Iran–Oman plan is therefore the first serious path out of the crisis to emerge — but not yet the way out itself.