An upgrade for Greece — and a double one, from Scope and Moody’s — at a time of uncertainty and in a Europe struggling to manage wars, a new energy shock, high borrowing costs and pressure on budgets, is not simply a surprise. It sends a signal of security and provides a counterpoint in an environment where everything appears fragile, as even the eurozone’s largest economies are being called upon to explain to markets — and to their citizens — how they will finance new support measures, energy interventions and the consequences of successive crises.

Although they came at the same time, each of the new upgrades carries its own significance and symbolism. Moody’s, the most sceptical foreign rating agency towards Greece for 16 years, has now aligned itself with all the others, placing Greece in the same category and giving it a positive outlook for a possible further upgrade. In other words, all the rating agencies are confirming that Greece is “on solid ground” in the BBB category and looking higher.

Although the markets are aware of it, most people overlook what it means for a country that was in the junk category from 2010 to 2023 to have broken free from the “bottom” of investment grade, which it regained after 15 years, and just one year later to now have “both feet firmly planted” one notch higher, without the risk of slipping back down at the first misstep.

The essence of this lies precisely “in difficult times”, as in the current situation, which is full of paradoxes: while from 2009-2010 “small” Greece was collapsing economically, spending a decade asking the “giants” for support and rescue, it is now those giants that have been brought to their knees while Greece is holding firm, without being swept along by the current.

But even that is not enough: Greece’s goal remains not simply to hold its ground, but to converge and move higher, back to where it once was, in the “A category” of international markets.

And that is what the other upgrade does: at the same time as Moody’s placed Greece on the “BBB with a positive outlook” shelf of international sovereign bonds, where all the other rating agencies had already placed it, Germany’s Scope Ratings took it higher, to BBB+. Now “at the top” of the “B category”, Greece is looking towards the next grade, with an “A” in front, where it stood two decades ago.

The toughest assessment

Although for a decade Greece had become accustomed to receiving “below average” marks in assessments by the Troika and the Institutions every three years, it is now comfortably passing the markets’ continuous assessment.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the upgrades announced by the two agencies coincide with the reclassification of the Greek Stock Exchange as a developed market. The move was “crowned” by record turnover, which soared to €4.26 billion on Friday, reaching its highest level in the exchange’s 150-year history. This shows what an upgrade in creditworthiness means, as it draws “herds” of investors towards new markets.

The European backdrop

The timing in which the upgrades have arrived also appears extremely critical. Just a few hours earlier in Dublin, European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis described Europe as an economy that has withstood successive shocks but is facing new pressures. To justify the EU’s fiscal rigidity over support measures, he cited turmoil in international bond markets, warning that “repricing in the sovereign bond market” had started in developed markets and would soon threaten emerging ones as well, calling for continued commitment to fiscal discipline so that countries do not end up paying a heavy “bill” for the current crisis.

Valdis Dombrovskis’s “sermon” on fiscal caution was not aimed at Greece. Maintaining surpluses and sticking to fiscal trajectories, together with early repayments and a rapid reduction in public debt, were the “keys” to the upgrade in Greece’s credit rating, according to the reports by Scope and Moody’s.

The “race” with France and Italy

Who are the bells ringing for? France and Italy first and foremost. On the one hand, the spread between the French 10-year bond and the German bond widened to 100 basis points, for the first time since 2012. The development dominated the press conference following the informal Eurogroup meeting. Fifteen to 17 years ago, the same question was repeatedly being asked about Greece.

At the same time, in Italy, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti used more dramatic terms: he warned that the cost of servicing Italy’s public debt, amounting to almost €3 trillion — or nearly 12 times that of Greece, although Italy also has a multiple of Greece’s GDP as an industrial country — is “increasing at an alarming rate” because of geopolitical tensions.

The day after the upgrade

The upgrade to BBB+ does not mean that Greece has been freed from risks. It does, however, mean that the rating agencies see greater resilience in the country’s fiscal trajectory, with a greater ability to withstand international turbulence without a return to the conditions of the previous crisis.

The international environment makes the development even more significant. When states are looking for money to finance support measures and absorb the consequences of crises, a better credit rating is an asset. It can strengthen market confidence and provide greater security at a time when borrowing costs remain a critical factor.

The upgrade therefore operates on two levels. Symbolically, it reflects the reversal of Greece’s image compared with 2009. In substantive terms, it rewards the fiscal trajectory, surpluses, early repayments and the continuation of policy, as political and economic stability is being set as a prerequisite for further upgrades. In addition to maintaining growth and reducing debt to 136% of GDP this year from 146.1% in 2025, Moody’s is signalling that the investment grade rating could rise further in the next period, provided fiscal discipline, the reduction of debt and the reform momentum are maintained.

However, the 2026 rating cycle has not yet been completed: the year ends with the Standard & Poor’s report on 23 October 2026, while Fitch has a review scheduled for 6 November 2026.