Reuters examines the provisions of the agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin for the supply of Russian diesel, as well as the obstacles that could limit its effectiveness, shedding light on the economic and political dimensions of the US decision to ease sanctions against Moscow. At the center of the story are the volumes of fuel Russia has committed to supply, the problems its refineries are facing as a result of Ukrainian attacks, and negotiations over a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure.

The agreement, announced on Friday, October 9, provides for the immediate release of more than 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel onto the US and international markets, with additional deliveries in the months ahead. In return, Washington lifted sanctions on exports of the specific fuel, while Trump also announced a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine, although the precise terms of this understanding have yet to be clarified.

The initiative is linked to the US president’s efforts to bring down high diesel prices, which are putting pressure on transport operators and farmers in the United States ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. On Monday, fuel prices had already fallen by 0.5% following the White House announcements.

The Volumes Putin Promised and the Problem of US Demand

According to Trump’s announcement, Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels. The agreement also provides for the export of another 500,000 tonnes in November, followed by an additional one million tonnes shortly afterwards. In total, therefore, Moscow has committed to supplying more than 1.8 million tonnes.

Reuters points out, however, that these volumes are limited compared with the needs of the US market. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American transport sector consumes approximately 2.94 million barrels of diesel per day.

This means that the first shipment of Russian fuel would not even cover one day of consumption in that sector, while the additional volumes promised by Moscow amount to less than four days of demand.

This mismatch raises questions about whether the agreement can bring about any meaningful easing of prices, even if Russia fully honours its commitments.

The Background to Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries

A crucial factor in implementing the agreement is the condition of Russian refineries, many of which have been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks.

Before these attacks began in 2024, Russia had the capacity to export approximately 100,000 tonnes of diesel per day. The damage inflicted on its facilities reduced production capacity, prompting the Russian government to impose an export ban last July to ensure that domestic demand could be met.

The ban was extended until October 31 for countries that do not have bilateral agreements with Moscow. Exports to “friendly” countries, mainly in Central Asia, continued.

On Saturday, one day after Trump’s announcement, Moscow announced that it was partially lifting restrictions on diesel exports with immediate effect.

According to energy industry sources cited by Reuters, Russia could meet Trump’s initial demand for 300,000 tonnes of fuel if Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries were to stop.

The same sources estimate that the volume could be produced as early as October, provided that a major refinery in European Russia, which has been damaged by drone attacks, resumes operations.

This connection also explains the importance of negotiations aimed at ending attacks on energy facilities. Such a development would facilitate Russian production and, consequently, help Moscow fulfil its commitments to Washington.

However, the parties involved have not confirmed that a ceasefire on these attacks is actually in effect. On Monday, the Kremlin announced that the relevant talks were continuing, without clarifying whether they concerned refineries alone or energy infrastructure as a whole.

The Tanker Obstacle and Doubts About Exports

Beyond the condition of its refineries, the agreement also faces significant practical difficulties.

Although the United States has lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports, restrictions remain in place on a large number of tankers.

As Reuters notes, it remains unclear which vessels could be used to transport the agreed volumes, as well as what condition the facilities expected to produce the fuel are in.

Consequently, the easing of US sanctions does not, by itself, guarantee that Russian diesel will reach the markets at the speed or in the quantities Trump announced.

The $400 Million for Russia and the Economic Cost of the Attacks

The agreement also has significant economic implications for Moscow, which has suffered substantial losses from attacks on its oil facilities.

According to Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian strikes on refineries have caused damage equivalent to 1% of Russia’s GDP. Based on Reuters’ calculations, that amounts to approximately $26.6 billion. Exports of the first 300,000 tonnes of diesel are estimated to generate around $400 million.

However, only a small portion of this money is expected to flow directly into the Russian state budget, since the country’s tax system relies primarily on taxing oil production rather than exports of crude oil or refined fuels.

Russia has approximately 30 major refineries, while none are currently operating in Ukraine, highlighting the importance of energy facilities in the context of the war.

Zelensky’s Reaction and Criticism Within the United States

The agreement has prompted criticism both in Ukraine and in the United States.

Volodymyr Zelensky argued that Trump’s decision to allow the supply of Russian diesel could encourage Moscow to continue attacking Ukraine, at the cost of further loss of life.

There has also been opposition from American lawmakers, including members of Trump’s own Republican Party.

Republican Congressman Don Bacon argued that Washington should implement the new sanctions against Russia approved by Congress rather than move towards easing restrictions.

In Europe, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced that his country would strengthen sanctions against Moscow.

Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul reiterated Berlin’s support for Zelensky following Trump’s remarks calling for the Ukrainian president to be removed from office. Wadephul also advocated applying greater pressure on Russia to resume peace talks.

The War in Iran, China and Pressure on Global Prices

Trump’s effort to increase diesel supplies is not related solely to the difficulties facing Russian production. The war in Iran has reduced the supply of petroleum products from Persian Gulf countries, worsening conditions in the global fuel market.

At the same time, China is expected to resume exports of refined products following a brief suspension during the Golden Week holiday period.

However, China’s approved exports of diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel for October total approximately 3.7 million tonnes. This is significantly below the level recorded during the same period last year and below the more than four million tonnes approved for September.

Against this backdrop, G7 countries recently agreed to release fuel from their strategic reserves in coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The agency, which has 32 member countries, coordinated the largest emergency release of strategic reserves in history in March, making more than 400 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products available.

It is now encouraging participating countries to release onto the markets the additional volumes that have been approved but not yet made available, seeking to boost supply at a time when international fuel markets remain under pressure.