How much more expensive will a packet of cigarettes become, and when will consumers feel the impact of the price increases? These are pressing questions across Europe today, as the issue features prominently on the agenda of EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels for the Eurogroup and Ecofin sessions.

The crucial negotiations on tobacco products will take place this afternoon at the Ecofin meeting. The Irish Presidency hopes to secure agreement on increasing minimum excise duty rates, as well as introducing new common taxation rules for tobacco, vaping and nicotine products.

What will the changes mean? There are several possible scenarios but, based on the European Commission’s initial proposal, a €13 packet of cigarettes could be considered a moderate estimate rather than an extreme one. This was also indicated by a relevant analysis by the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), which found that the average price of cigarettes could rise as much as sixfold, representing an increase of 569.6%.

However, the same study also highlighted the significant impact that a decline in legal cigarette consumption could have on smuggling and public revenue.

For these and other reasons, it does not look easy for the 27 member states to agree today on the new minimum tax thresholds, or on the scale of the adjustment required by each country and the timeframe for implementing it.

Deadlock Despite the ‘Irish Bridge’

Monday’s discussions are not starting from scratch. The Irish Presidency has put forward new compromise texts in an effort to bridge disagreements over the structure of the taxes, minimum tax levels and implementation rules. The process has involved technical negotiations and discussions among permanent representatives, with the aim of presenting ministers with a basis for political agreement.

Today, according to the official agenda, the compromise package will be put before ministers with a view to establishing a common position. However, reaching agreement remains difficult, as unanimity is required.

Greece is calling for greater flexibility in the adjustment period, warning that a sudden increase in the tax burden could shift consumption away from the legal market and towards the illicit one. The Greek side is also highlighting the potential consequences for the competitiveness of the Greek economy, as well as for investment and exports in the country’s tobacco sector.

Italy and Romania have also voiced concerns, focusing on smuggling and the additional burden on lower-income consumers.

In addition to tobacco, oral nicotine products are another divisive issue, while other countries have their own agendas.

The French Example

Beyond the KEPE study, the strongest argument against increasing the tax comes from France – one of the most fervent supporters of the proposed rise.

In France, according to a KPMG report published in June 2026, illicit cigarettes accounted for 41.4% of total consumption in 2025, up from 37.6% in 2024. In other words, the share increased by 10% in just one year, as the market was flooded with an estimated 20.5 billion smuggled cigarettes.

In the same year, 2025, legal domestic cigarette sales fell by 8.7%. However, because illicit cigarette sales filled the gap, total estimated consumption declined by just 0.7%.

The gap illustrates why a fall in the legal market cannot automatically be equated with an equivalent reduction in smoking. In any event, if the Ecofin meeting fails to pave the way for an agreement, decisions could be postponed for a further six months, until the next EU Presidency.