Droughts, severe rainfall, rising sea levels, and pollution will increasingly impact the Mediterranean Basin, which is warming 20% faster than the rest of the world. This stark warning was presented at COP29 in Azerbaijan by experts Piero Lionello from the University of Salento and Abdel Monem, a climate and agricultural development advisor. They coordinated reports compiled by 55 scientists from 17 countries at the invitation of the Union for the Mediterranean, a conference involving the European Union and 16 Mediterranean nations.

The French newspaper Le Monde, summarizing the main findings of these reports, emphasizes the grave warnings for the 540 million people living in the Mediterranean region. The reports caution that unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced sufficiently to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C within the next two decades, extreme weather events—like the recent “apocalyptic rainfall” in Valencia, Spain—will become increasingly frequent. The experts also predict that floods will threaten critical infrastructure in the European Mediterranean.

The scientists further highlight broader environmental degradation in the Mediterranean Basin, noting that rising temperatures will lead to extensive droughts and reduced freshwater reserves. They point to plastic waste as a critical issue, with plastics comprising 100% of floating debris and 50% of submerged debris. Additionally, heatwaves in the region have increased by 40% over the past two decades, with 15% lasting for extended periods. This has caused the death of coral, sponges, mollusks, and echinoderms, while also contributing to a surge in jellyfish populations.

Agriculture in the region is also significantly affected, with challenges already observed in olives, grapes, cereals, fruits, and vegetables. These issues, the experts warn, will further impact food security for Mediterranean residents.