They took over the main cities of Syria with “lightning” attacks. They entered Damascus at dawn with almost no resistance and now, they are taking over. Who are the jihadists who ended Bashar al-Assad‘s 25-year regime with a short-lived offensive, who will they ally with and who will they clash with?

The delicate balances are demonstrated by the fact that as the rebels were entering Damascus, in the town of Manjib, SNA forces were attacking those of the SNF and, as the SNF prepared a counter-attack, Turkish fighter jets were carrying out aerial strikes. Which led to the US Army transmitting a warning to the SNA and HTS not to engage in skirmishes in SDF-controlled areas in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa, including the west bank of the Euphrates.

HTS: Tahrir al-Sham. The “leader”

In the colorful mosaic of Syria’s tribes of Shiites, Sunnis, Christians, Druze, Alawites, etc, the “lightning” offensive was launched from the northwest by small rebel groups in light trucks and motorcycles, led by the Salafi Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, alliance, along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. It was founded by its current leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (born Ahmed Hussein al-Saraa in 1982 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia), who participated in the Iraqi uprising against the US as part of the group that eventually evolved into the Islamic State.

In its previous incarnation at the start of the Syrian civil war in 2012 as Jabhat al-Nusra or “Al-Nusra Front”, HTS emerged from within ISIL (ISIS), from which it broke away a year later, declaring allegiance to al-Qaeda. A faith it would renounce, severing ties with it in a public statement in 2016, after which it renamed itself the Hayat Tahir al-Sham, or Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.

Today, HTS is the largest armed group in Syria, as its ranks include members of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Liva al-Haq, Jabhat Ansar al-Din and Jaish al-Sunnah.

The HTS, which is estimated to have up to 30,000 fighters, was based in Idlib and had economic control over swathes of territory and resources there. From here, we also get a lot of answers about the organization’s funding, as well as its friendly relations with Turkey.

The HTS, which has been designated by the US as a terrorist organization, controls the oil fields in the region, which is a major source of revenue for it, as well as the Bab al-Hawah border crossing with Turkey.

The HTS also controls the SSG (Syrian Salvation Government), which is the (also Idlib-based) technocratic administration of opposition-controlled areas in northern Syria. They are used by Turkey, from which they receive logistical support, to keep Kurdish armed groups under control.

SNA- Syrian Liberation Army

It is also an umbrella organization for dozens of rebel groups operating in northern Syria, aligned with the Idlib government and made up of groups supported and directed by Turkey. Turkish support for these organizations extends beyond political and financial support, as it includes training, weapons, logistics supplies, and intelligence sharing. This coalition of several tens of thousands of fighters was based in areas near the Turkish border and includes several sub-coalitions and alliances, such as the National Liberation Front (NFL), the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Liberation and Construction Movement (LCM). Despite operating under a unified framework, there is still considerable friction and internal rivalries between its constituent groups; which often even leads to armed conflict.
It may be supported by Turkey, but it is also used by Turkey, as evidenced by the fact that SNA forces have been involved in operations against Kurdish groups in the Aleppo area, forcing many Kurds to leave that area.

SDF – The Kurds

The Syrian Democratic Forces (Syrian Democratic Forces or Hezen Suriya Demokratik) is a coalition of mainly minority groups, including Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Assyrians, etc. and plays a key role in Syria’s current evolving dynamics. This coalition is estimated to include several thousand fighters. Although not rebels in the traditional sense, these forces have been actively involved in recent developments in Syria and are considered a vital element in the reorganization of the country in the post-conflict era.

The “backbone” of the SDF is also its most numerous, best-trained and best-equipped military force, the Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units) militia, which is close to the Syrian left. It consists of some 50,000 fighters, who have received logistical infrastructure, support and training from the US, and has been perhaps the most significant factor in the defeat of ISIS since its formation in 2014. The SDF is joined by the world-famous YPJ (Women’s Protection Units), which is made up of Kurdish Yazidi women fighters who also fought against ISIS and took part in the current fighting. They have become the greatest fear of the ISIS jihadists and their most hated enemy, as according to their interpretation of the Quran, if a fighter is killed by a woman, he loses the opportunity to be called a martyr and thus, go to heaven.

The SDF includes other organizations and groups such as part of the PKK, the Jaish al Thwar alliance which includes various factions such as the Kurdish Front, the Seljuk Brigade, 99 Brigade, the Sultan Selim Brigade, Ahrar al-Zawiya and others. Together, these groups form a multi-faceted and diverse coalition, an integral part of northern and eastern Syria.

During the current offensive, it played a key role in the capture of Al-Bukamal and Deir ez-Zor.

Southern Operations Command; the “rogue”

This is the amalgamation of local rebel groups – mainly Sunni and Druze – in southern Syria. These groups have united under the name Southern Operations Command and have operated in the cities of Daraa, Suwayda, Quneitra, Khan Arnabeh and, in effect, the entire southern region of Syria, including the border with Israel.

While many rebels in this region were previously affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) during the civil war, the area around Daraa and the southern Golan Heights also harbored jihadist elements affiliated with Jabhat al-Nusra, ISIS, and similar groups. At this stage, the specific affiliations of these new insurgent forces remain unclear, with many likely waiting to assess the evolving dynamics before definitively aligning themselves with a particular faction or cause.