The first formal step in holding early elections is expected to be completed later today, with the federal parliament meeting to give Chancellor Olaf Scholz a vote of confidence. Following the withdrawal of the Free Democrats (FDP) from the governing coalition, the government has now lost its majority and, barring the unlikely event, Mr Scholz will lose a vote of confidence today.

At 14:00 (local time), Olaf Scholz will address the Bundestag plenary to justify his decision to put a confidence vote in him to the Bundestag. With his letter to President Burbel Basch last Wednesday, Mr Scholz became the fifth Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany to ask for a vote of confidence from MPs. According to the constitution, this is the first step towards early elections. If a majority of 367 Members of Parliament is not obtained, the Federal President will dissolve Parliament and then call new elections within 60 days. The elections have already been set for 23 February 2025.

In the similar cases of Helmut Kohl in 1982 and Gerhard Schröder in 2005, there were appeals to the Federal Constitutional Court against the decision to dissolve the Bundestag, as MPs felt their rights were violated because there were insufficient grounds for dissolving the body and their term of office ended earlier than planned. In both cases, the actions were dismissed by the Court, which pointed out that the federal president in question has more tools at his disposal to judge whether the political situation is indeed unstable. Similar appeals cannot be ruled out now either.

The loss of the vote of confidence does not, however, affect the formal ability of the government to carry out its duties. The chancellor’s term of office expires only at the first Bundestag meeting after the new elections, but even then, in the absence of a decision on a coalition government, the federal president can ask for the outgoing chancellor to remain in office until the parliament elects his successor. In addition, the Bundestag can function normally even after the loss of a vote of confidence and the decision to dissolve it. However, the necessary majorities in the opposition must be sought each time.