So, hello there! One moment you’re sitting comfortably—let’s say last Saturday—watching the opposition through binoculars, and the next, protests over the Tempi disaster explode out of nowhere, and suddenly, the sky comes crashing down on you. But only until the next Saturday, because while we were dealing with a tragic event from two years ago, now we might be facing a terrifying natural disaster that could wipe out not just a government but the entire tourism industry of the country. That’s life (and politics) for you—one minute everything is fine, and the next, it all turns upside down, leaving you scrambling to figure out where to even start cleaning up the mess.

For now, we’ve shifted from the Tempi case to Santorini and the surrounding Cyclades, where 200 earthquakes in the past 48 hours is no small number. This isn’t something you just sit back and observe like a science experiment—because, unfortunately, Santorini’s breathtaking caldera has a well-known issue: it’s covered in illegal constructions teetering on the cliffs, with every little house sporting a pool that adds to the overall weight. In other words, a strong 6.0-magnitude quake could send half the island tumbling down in a heap.

Serious Concerns

So, if anyone tells you that K.M. (Kyriakos Mitsotakis) and the authorities, seismologists, etc., aren’t worried—or that they’re hyping this up just to shift focus from the Tempi disaster—they simply have no idea what they’re talking about. As of a couple of days ago, even the most extreme evacuation plans for the island (currently home to around 16,000-20,000 people) have been activated and are being prepared. Of course, whether the port and airport will remain operational in the event of a disaster is another matter entirely—but if neither is functional, that’s a whole different nightmare.

To be clear, we’re not there yet—there are no indications of such a catastrophic quake. But let’s be real: 200 tremors in 48 hours is no joke. According to Civil Protection, which is monitoring the situation with seismologists, a similar pattern of frequent quakes occurred in 2011, and those minor tremors lasted nearly a year before they fully subsided.

Mitsotakis on the Ground?

The question of whether Mitsotakis will personally visit Santorini remains unanswered. He’s scheduled to be in Brussels today and hasn’t decided to change his itinerary—partly to avoid causing panic. But a visit in the coming days is definitely not out of the question.

Tourism Concerns

And this is where we start thinking about the PR nightmare this could turn into for the island if the quakes continue for the next few months. In just two months, Santorini’s tourist season kicks off—with workers arriving first, followed by waves of international visitors. Keeping a cool head is important, but so is solid preparation because, as you can imagine, this is a complex issue, both practically and in terms of public perception.

Tempi

On to the other major issue of the moment: M.M. (Mitsotakis’ administration) is trying to regroup (more on upcoming changes at the Hellenic Railways Organization’s board below) and recover from the shock of the Tempi disaster. Mitsotakis has met with some ministers outside his usual inner circle at the prime minister’s office, gathering additional perspectives, and is carefully planning his next move—one that will include a cabinet reshuffle.

Three Reports

Reports are beginning to surface regarding whether or not there was flammable material in the first train cars. It seems we’re looking at three different findings: A Belgian agency claims there was indeed a flammable substance, estimating about 3-4 tons, based on simulations conducted with AI (this has already been published in Realnews). A report from the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) is more ambiguous, stating that no flammable material was found, but also concluding that the explosion couldn’t have been caused by engine oil alone. A Swedish agency suggests that the fireball resulted from an explosion in the train’s engine and electrical transformers. So, the government will likely take the stance of “Let’s leave it to the courts and see what they decide,” emphasizing that all these reports were commissioned by the relevant state body—so, no, there’s no cover-up happening here.

No More Apologies…

After a more level-headed assessment of the situation, sources from M.M. tell me that the government has decided not to let the opposition and internet trolls dictate the narrative. This means dropping the apologetic tone when government officials appear in the media to explain their position.

Piraeus Bank Prepares (and Agrees on) a Bid for CVC

Now, let’s switch gears to business news, starting with the hottest topic: Piraeus Bank’s bid to acquire Ethniki Asfalistiki (National Insurance).

Where do things stand? No binding offer has been submitted yet, because such a move would require board approval and a formal announcement. Over the past weekend, Piraeus Bank continued its preparations as negotiations remain ongoing—though there’s still work to be done. Specifically, they’re weighing variables like portfolio valuation, property assets (which and how many buildings), potential risks, and reserves the bank would need to maintain. A deal of this scale can’t drag on forever, so Piraeus Bank’s proposal will be submitted imminently. This is a critical week, and one way or another, the “Ethniki Asfalistiki” issue will be settled by February 24, when Piraeus Bank announces its financial results.

No Right of First Refusal

The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) has been briefed by Piraeus Bank but hasn’t given a definitive yes or no—just requested probability assessments and different scenarios. At the same time, Piraeus Bank needs to manage its relationships with NN and Ergon, its exclusive insurance partners, who found out about this deal through the press—and, as you can imagine, were absolutely thrilled (not).

All signs point to an imminent offer from Piraeus Bank to CVC, without triggering a competitive bidding process. The final price will be significantly higher than what CVC originally paid for Ethniki Asfalistiki. Since CVC is a private company, if it deems the price satisfactory (which is currently being negotiated), it will proceed with the sale. Meanwhile, under the current contract, National Bank of Greece does not have the right of first refusal on the sale.

What They’re Thinking at National Bank and the “Flaw” in the Deal

The question is, “What can and should National Bank do?” The insurance company carries its brand name, has members on the Board of Directors, has issued a bond, and is also owed approximately €125 million from the sale agreement. National Bank has the advantage of knowing the insurance company better than anyone. P. Mylonas and a close circle within the bank had been aware for the past few weeks that something was going on with the insurance company.

The relationship between National Bank and CVC isn’t bad, but you wouldn’t call it good either. The sale agreement of the insurance company had some kind of earn-out clause or something similar, under which CVC would pay National Bank another €125 million, depending on the insurance company’s performance. This money hasn’t been paid because the insurance company didn’t meet the expected performance, and obviously, National Bank isn’t happy with how things have turned out. At the same time, P. Mylonas is reportedly concerned about the insurance company regarding the €134 million in capital returns made to CVC, the assets that were liquidated, internal and organizational issues, and so on.

The upcoming sale of the insurance company does not disrupt the bancassurance collaboration with National Bank. Piraeus Bank is acquiring the insurance company with the “flaw” that it will continue selling National Bank’s products. At least, that’s how they read the contract at National Bank. Piraeus Bank, on its side, will attempt to push its own products. Now, how that will play out and whether the contract with National Bank can be broken is something for the lawyers to figure out.

It’s still too early to draw conclusions from the “National Insurance case.” Not only because the deal isn’t finalized yet, but also because time is needed to assess both the impressions and the substance.

More Deals Coming in the Banking Sector

This column insists that we should expect more deals in the banking sector during this period. Banks have three main sources of revenue: Interest fees & commissions, the usually insignificant and unpredictable category of “other income.”

Last week, the ECB lowered interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate down to 2.75%. Analysts predict four more cuts within the year, but even if only three happen, by the end of 2025, interest rates will be at 2%. This year, the full impact of the rate cuts won’t be felt—not only because the decline is gradual, but also because banks have hedged their interest rate positions. However, by early 2026, banks will face a new reality regarding interest income.

This is why acquisitions that boost revenues need to happen now. Given the time required for legal processes, regulatory approvals, competition committee reviews, etc., banks need to complete these acquisitions by year-end so they can be integrated and start generating revenue to offset the drop in interest rates. Moves like Piraeus Bank’s recent acquisition of the insurance company, Alpha Bank’s expansion into factoring, and a few months ago, Eurobank’s deal with Hellenic Bank, all fit into this strategy. So, expect more deals to come.

Tennis in the North, Beach Resorts in the South by 7 Major Businessmen

Two interesting development projects are underway in the northern and southern suburbs. In Maroussi, the Tennis Center at OAKA is undergoing a complete transformation by “Stadio 2020,” with Hippocrates-Ioannis Stassinopoulos (Viohalco) as the anchor investor, alongside partners Achilleas Konstantakopoulos (TEMES), Sami Fais (Fais Group), and Kikos Martinos, son of shipping magnate Andreas Martinos. The investment is expected to exceed €24 million—double the minimum required for the concession—with the goal of fully renovating the 70-acre Tennis Center at OAKA. The project will be completed in phases, with a targeted finish by the end of 2026. Among other things, it will include quick and clay courts, padel, and pickleball (which is gaining massive popularity abroad), as well as a Club House. Different membership levels will be offered to maintain the public character of the center.

Meanwhile, in the southern suburbs, the redevelopment of Voula’s Second Beach is moving forward, led by Athens Beach Club (ABC), a joint venture of Achilleas Konstantakopoulos, Dimitris Kokkalas, and George Prokopiou. Once the €15-16 million investment in the 74-acre beach area is completed, among other things, a private space will be created for the residents and owners of The Ilisian (formerly the Hilton), which is linked to TEMES and the Konstantakopoulos and Olayan groups.

Two New Members on the OSE Board – General Assembly This Week

The Board of Directors of OSE will be renewed with two new additions, which will be confirmed in the coming days at the General Assembly of shareholders—who are none other than the Ministries of Finance and Infrastructure. According to sources, former CEO of ERGOSE, Christos Palios, will join the board, while reports indicate that the second new member will be a woman. Word has it she’s a legal expert who has also worked in the energy sector and previously served in the office of a former government minister. The General Assembly had been delayed, but sources say it is expected to convene within the week to confirm the new Board of Directors, whose term will last until the end of the year, as well as the organization’s charter and internal regulations.

The next step is launching the competition for hiring a technical consultant, expected to take place in March or, at the latest, April. This process will select an internationally renowned entity to oversee the unified company resulting from the merger of OSE, ERGOSE, and the rolling stock division of GAIOSO, which has already been ratified by law in Parliament. This may be one of the last opportunities to reform and address OSE’s chronic issues. The organization is being rebranded as “Hellenic Railways,” and the new entity will rely on best practices and expertise from global industry leaders—just as was done with Attiko Metro in the past.

Vidavo is Selling, But Not Saying to Whom

The publicly listed company Vidavo (on the EN.A market) announced on Friday that 22.3% of its share capital had been sold. Without disclosing the price or the buyer. As a listed company, it should have done so, and it’s best if such matters don’t just slide under the radar. Even belatedly, Vidavo could clarify whether the buyer is Infotrust from Thessaloniki, which operates in the insurance market and, following a recent change in ownership, has been on an acquisition spree.

The Catalysts on the Athens Stock Exchange

Athens Avenue remains close to its multi-year highs, either thanks to new catalysts or by dusting off some it hadn’t used for a few sessions. Take Titan, for example—it hit a new peak after a brief pause, locking in at €45.7, an all-time record it had previously reached intraday on January 23. The rotation of key players brought EYDAP into the spotlight, surpassing €6 and hitting a 13-month high, closing at its strongest level since January 2, 2024. Meanwhile, Quest climbed to a 17-month high, returning to levels last seen in September 2023, back when it was a high-cap stock.

The New Management of Hellenic Environmental Energy (Ηλέκτωρ)

Following the recent completion of the sale of 94.4% of Ηλέκτωρ to Motor Oil, a new Board of Directors has been appointed—so I hear. The board consists of six members: Ioannis Vardinogiannis as Chairman, Dimitris Kontaxis as Vice Chairman, Nikolaos Stathakis as CEO, while Giorgos Skouteropoulos, Leonidas Bobolas, and Emmanouil Christeas hold board seats. The election took place on January 28, and the board’s term lasts six years, expiring on January 27, 2031. Worth noting: Motor Oil acquired its 94.4% stake via its subsidiary Manetial Ltd, while Leonidas Bobolas retains a 5.56% share through Aresa Management Ltd. Bobolas, in the past, played a key role in managing and strengthening Ηλέκτωρ. The company’s new charter has also come into effect, introducing several modifications. Among them is a clause granting the minority shareholder, Aresa Management Ltd, the right to appoint Leonidas Bobolas—or one of his children, Giorgos Bobolas or Anna Bobolas—as a board member, as long as Aresa holds at least 5.56% of the total share capital and Bobolas remains its ultimate beneficial owner.

Capital Market Bill: Delayed Until Further Notice

Reliable sources from the Ministry of Finance assured last week that the long-awaited bill introducing major changes to the Capital Market would soon be submitted for public consultation. Those same sources now say the submission is being pushed to next week, though they insist—for now—there won’t be significant changes or additions to incentives aimed at strengthening the stock market’s functionality, boosting demand, and attracting new listings.

The bill enhances the institutional framework for supervisory bodies (the Hellenic Capital Market Commission and the Bank of Greece) in line with best international and European practices. It also includes provisions to protect investors in crypto-assets. But the real question is: if there are no changes or additions, why the delay?

Thessaloniki Port Authority (OLTH) Awaits February 20

No one was surprised when OLTH’s board of directors rejected the voluntary public offer from Switzerland’s LeonidsPort. What was surprising, however, was the absence of two board members from the discussion.

An interesting takeaway from the board’s decision: the offer “does not fall within the value range determined by the independent financial advisor,” which was set between €38.88 and €44.08 per share. Meanwhile, LeonidsPort engaged a financial advisor to handle the offer but did not disclose an independent valuation consultant for OLTH’s fair value.

Perhaps that’s because their prospectus states they don’t intend to raise their €27 per share offer unless a competing bid emerges at a higher price. Some market insiders speculate that after the public offer expires on February 20, a new independent valuation report may surface, giving LeonidsPort the justification to revise its offer upwards. Despite the overall bullish trend in the stock market, OLTH’s share price is currently hovering around €27.30—not far from the Swiss offer.

The Hidden Treasure of EKETA

In Northern Greece, there’s a major research center employing 1,600 people—mostly scientists—that has managed to generate its own income, roughly €60 million annually. The secret? Connecting its research directly to the real economy, primarily the industrial sector. The National Centre for Research and Technological Development (EKETA) carries out projects funded by the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the Recovery Fund, but its real strength lies in making its research findings commercially available. Of EKETA’s €60 million in annual revenue: 80% comes from competitive research programs, 7% from regular public funding, 13% from industry contracts. EKETA is now among the Top 11 research organizations in the European Union for attracting competitive research funding. Notably, 70% of its industry contracts come from foreign clients, handling high-level research for global companies. On Friday, Development Minister Takis Theodorikakos visited Thessaloniki and pledged full support for the new 4th-generation ThessINTEC Technology Park and the Hydrogen Innovation Hub in Western Macedonia. Construction of the necessary research infrastructure is expected to be completed by mid-2026.

What the IMF Didn’t Say, Declan Costello Did

The IMF’s latest Article IV report on the Greek economy left everyone pleased, as it highlighted substantial improvements across the board. But what the IMF officials didn’t emphasize enough, a former Troika heavyweight did: Declan Costello of the European Commission. Speaking at a Delphi Forum conference in Brussels, Costello—now Deputy Director-General for Economic and Financial Affairs at the EU—pointed out a key issue: Greece’s economic growth forecasts for the coming years aren’t impressive. Why? Because if you exclude EU funds, there are no major foreign investments flowing into the country. According to Costello, Greece could achieve annual growth rates of 5% to 6%—if it made it easier for foreign capital to enter its economy. As long as Greece fails to attract direct foreign investment, long-term growth won’t exceed 1.25% per year, just as the IMF report predicts.