Hello, so the government continues to…prepare, I would say, psychologically mainly more rather than anything else for Friday’s gathering. By then, the infamous report of the committee investigating the accident will likely have been made public, and it is not expected to contain anything particularly negative for the government.

Inaccurate information?

A reliable source even told me that the initial information given to K.M. (by whom, one wonders) regarding its supposedly highly unfavorable content that would create a major political issue is proving to be factually incorrect. The result of this poor information, of course, was the government’s overreaction, which is—partly—what we are witnessing today.

Reshuffle

Now, after the gathering and the swearing-in of Tasoulas, meaning after March 13, the reshuffle is expected at any moment. I don’t know much, but I learned something very interesting: yesterday, Dimitris Avramopoulos went to M.M. to see Mitsotakis. If one considers the fact that the day before yesterday, Avram met with Erdogan—with the Prime Minister’s full knowledge—and then met with K.M. yesterday, one might easily think…here comes the new Foreign Minister. And this, given that Gerapetritis is most likely moving to M.M., to his old office.

The far-right and the results

Government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis was asked during yesterday’s briefing about the rise of the far-right in Germany, as Alternative for Germany doubled its percentages, won states, and prevailed among young people and workers. And Marinakis said something correct, with an eye also on Greece’s internal affairs: that the only response to these parties, which are fundamentally populist, can only be effective policies because the country has experienced firsthand the recipes of populists. In doing so, he also set the tone for the government’s approach towards Velopoulos-Latinopoulou and company, who promise easy answers to complex problems.

The grandeur of Charis

Great moments for Charis Doukas, who will travel in March to the Côte d’Azur, specifically to Cannes, where the world’s largest real estate exhibition takes place annually. This year, the Mayor of Athens, along with mayors of other European capitals—from London, Sadiq Khan, from Rome, Roberto Gualtieri, from Madrid, Jose Luis Martinez Almeida—has been invited to this year’s MIPIM by the organizers as part of a broader discussion on urban redevelopment, development, and investment in major European cities. Ahead of next week’s Athens City Council session, the agenda includes approval for the mayor’s trip to Cannes from March 11 to 14, 2025, “with accommodation expenses covered by the organizers,” as officially clarified. Incidentally, this year’s MIPIM will be opened by Mario Draghi on March 11, indicative of the economic significance of this major event. The exhibition, which gathers over 20,000 participants from 90 countries with more than €4 trillion in assets under management by the attending investors, will once again feature a large Greek pavilion organized by Enterprise Greece with the participation of domestic market players.

National Insurance without Danish Compromise (for now, and we’ll see)

Ultimately, Piraeus Bank was right not to count on the Danish Compromise provision—beneficial for the deal’s capital impact—in its acquisition of 70% of National Insurance. Although the official response is expected after a considerable period, market sources indicate that the supervisory authorities will not recognize the Danish Compromise in this transaction, and if they do, it will be after a long time. The Danish Compromise, which limits the capital impact of acquisitions, is currently not recognized by any Greek bank.

Reduction of position in Lamda – Germanos-Katsos are not leaving

The Lamda Development stock packages traded yesterday marked the sale of a 3.26% stake in the company’s total share capital, with the seller being Voxcove Holdings of the Olympia Group, owned by the Panos Germanos family, and VNK, owned by the Katsos family. Following the transaction, Voxcove holds 6.74% of Lamda’s share capital, and according to reliable sources, it aimed to reduce its position and does not intend to exit Lamda. The shares changed hands at a 3% discount compared to the €7.01 at which Lamda Development’s stock was trading.

After OPAP comes the AIA

OPAP was the first to adopt a scrip dividend program on the Stock Exchange, which proved highly effective, and now Athens International Airport (AIA) is reintroducing it. Specifically, the company’s management will utilize an optional dividend reinvestment program (scrip dividend) for investors to use these funds to finance part of its extensive investment plan currently underway. AIA’s investments aim to achieve a passenger handling capacity of 40 million by 2032 and will be primarily funded through loans (which have largely already been secured) and partly through the scrip dividend program. The program will allow eligible shareholders to reinvest a portion of their entitled dividends (up to a total of €240 million) in the company by receiving new shares. For 2025, the maximum total amount that AIA shareholders can choose to reinvest in new shares under the proposed program, based on 2024 earnings, will be €100 million, while the remaining €135.9 million from 2024 net earnings will be distributed in cash. Details will be announced in mid-April (14/4).

The hereditary gift of Ch. Pamboukis

Staying at Eleftherios Venizelos for yesterday’s stock rally (in an otherwise strongly declining session) due to the impressive dividend to be distributed (€0.78 gross, yielding a 9.4% dividend return). Coincidentally, one month before yesterday’s dividend distribution announcement and the reinvestment option (scrip dividend), Charis Pamboukis—who is a non-executive member of the company’s board—purchased 11,000 AIA shares. The purchases took place on 14/1 at an average price of €8.12 per share, totaling €89,376. Yesterday, the stock closed up 8% at €8.98.

The crazy pre-sales of Hampton’s Greece in Kavala

Officially commencing its journey yesterday, Monday, February 24, was the newly established company “Anasa Luxury Hotel and Resort S.A.,” owned by Iranian-Canadian businessman Vahid Hadi Taghi, who has launched the ambitious Hampton’s Greece project in Kavala. The new company, headquartered in Drama, focuses on hotels and similar accommodations, as well as related services (pool facilities, beach umbrella and chair rentals, restaurant and bar operations), with an initial share capital of €6 million, fully paid in cash by “Iraklitsa S.A.,” represented by Vahid Hadi Taghi. It is worth recalling that this is the company through which the businessman won a TAIPED auction two years ago, securing for €18.5 million a large property in Nea Iraklitsa, Kavala, consisting of two adjacent seaside plots totaling 149.73 acres. The property, located in the beautiful bay of Paleo, is flat, has a sandy beachfront stretching 600 meters, and offers an unobstructed view of the Kavala Bay and the eastern shores of Thassos. It also has direct access to the Egnatia Highway and the old Thessaloniki-Kavala national road. On this site, Hampton’s Greece will be developed, featuring 288 luxury maisonettes and a five-star hotel complex. Construction began last fall, and nearly all the maisonettes have already been pre-sold. In the new company, “Anasa Luxury Hotel and Resort S.A.,” Vahid Hadi Taghi serves as Chairman and CEO, while Nikolaos Mavromatis and Emmanouil Gialamis participate as board members.

People come and go in the Emirates

As soon as Minister of National Defense Nikos Dendias returned from the major International Defense Exhibition IDEX in Abu Dhabi, Minister of National Economy and Finance Kostis Hatzidakis is departing (tomorrow at noon) for a major economic exhibition and conference. The Finance Minister has scheduled his return for late Friday afternoon, but there are also reports suggesting that the Prime Minister himself may be making a lightning visit to the United Arab Emirates. Something seems to be brewing down there…

Yesterday, at the Stock Exchange, the blame fell on…Tempi

The current political tension appears to have been the catalyst for yesterday’s downward trajectory of the General Index, contrary to the positive mood in international markets earlier in the day. The uniform liquidation of banking stocks and the selling of blue chips as the profitable end of the first two months approaches are not easily explained. The fact is that the Banking Index had delivered a +15% return from the beginning of the year until yesterday morning (with Piraeus alone posting a +22.8% gain). Given that everything indicates banks will distribute high dividends this year, many professional managers rushed yesterday to lock in their year-to-date returns by liquidating part of their profitable shares while holding on to the rest to collect dividends, unconcerned about their final balance sheets. The Athens market entered the new trading week with a corrective session carrying the scent of profit-taking. The truth is that in the afternoon, sentiment in European markets shifted, turning positive signs into negative ones, and if not for Coca-Cola supporting the Greek market with a +2.04% rise to €40 (a new all-time high), the General Index would not have been able to hold the 1,600-point fortress. Trading volume surged to €254.9 million, with €69.3 million in block trades, of which €39.1 million involved pre-agreed transactions in Lamda stock. Ultimately, the General Index closed at 1,603.96 points (-0.88%), with Athens International Airport supporting the market with an impressive +8.04% increase. All the heavyweights of the Index faced strong selling pressure from sellers who knew what they wanted but found few willing buyers. Only 24 stocks closed in positive territory, while 100 recorded losses in yesterday’s session.

Turkey’s new tourist markets

January is traditionally a weak month for tourism in our part of the world. The same applies to Turkey. However, out of nowhere, Turkish Minister of Culture and Tourism Mehmet Nuri Ersoy announced that in January, foreign visitor arrivals in Turkey exceeded 2.2 million, marking a +6% year-on-year increase… This figure is +41% higher than tourist arrivals in 2019 and surpassed January 2020 (the last strong January before Covid) by +21%. Looking at the countries of origin of tourists in Turkey, leading the list are Iran, Russia, Bulgaria, Germany, and Georgia. Russian tourists, due to sanctions imposed by many countries following the war with Ukraine, had limited options for traveling abroad. Turkey remained an open travel destination. The same applies to Iranians. But why in January?

The biggest fear of the markets

One might think that the biggest fear among capital managers in today’s markets would be linked to major geopolitical shifts, energy prices, or the trajectory of the Chinese economy. But no. The common denominator in the question “what could go wrong” in the markets is one: the possibility of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising from 4.5% today to 5%. Tariff policies bring inflation and high costs. Sudden presidential initiatives create uncertainty. The U.S. government is forced to keep bond yields high not only due to inflation but also to attract buyers for its numerous bond issuances. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 5%, the value of bank assets will decrease accordingly (a prime example being the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank), along with pension funds and investment funds, creating a crisis spiral in the always optimistic U.S. market. The cost of servicing debt will skyrocket, while the total debt of American households, which increased by more than $93 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to a record $18.04 trillion, will pose a growing burden. Household debt in the U.S. has risen by $3.90 trillion over the past five years. The largest increase has been observed in credit card debt, which has reached $1.21 trillion, an all-time high. Mortgage and auto loan debt increased by $11 billion to record levels of $12.61 trillion and $1.66 trillion, respectively. Additionally, student loans rose by $9 billion to a historic high of $1.62 trillion. If dollar interest rates rise to 5%, America’s social, political, and economic problem will be severe.

Desperation of American workers in search of housing

The company Redfin is a well-known real estate firm with powerful IT and AI tools for gathering housing market data in the U.S. Yesterday, it published data from a study that correlated rental prices over the past three months with the average minimum wage in the American market. The study’s conclusion is that a worker, for example, in a supermarket or fast-food restaurant, would need to work 106 hours a week to afford housing costs. Economic theory defines “affordable housing” as rent that does not exceed 30% of a person’s income. Based on these criteria, the average rent of $1,600 per month requires 106 hours of work per week for the average worker to cover housing costs.