Hello, so just to say something positive for a change, after a few decades the BOAK is finally being signed today in Crete with lights and torches (GEK TERNA) in the presence of Mitsotakis—I imagine that since it’s nearby, he’ll also pop over to his house in Chania for a swim.

Announcements on Monday

Meanwhile, Kyriakos Kyranakis’s visit yesterday at noon to the Italian Deputy Prime Minister Salvini and the inspection he then conducted at Italian railway facilities have a rich backstory, but announcements are expected to be made on Monday by Mitsotakis and Meloni from Palazzo Chigi, at the rescheduled Intergovernmental Conference between the two countries. In any case, Kyranakis’s request to his counterpart was for the Italians to seriously invest in new train sets, while the Italians, in turn, are asking us to invest in the network and in safety standards.

The consequences for the Rectors

I wrote to you yesterday about the government interventions in the universities, but let me add one more piece of information: the deadline for rectors to submit safety plans for their universities is the end of July. Also, by the end of the year they must have drawn up Internal Regulations, which are essentially the constitutional charter of a university. Rectors who don’t “play ball” will face administrative sanctions, even pay cuts, if they choose to resist, although the Ministry of Education estimates that a common ground will be found.

The mission to Turkey

Deputy Foreign Minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou has been in Istanbul since yesterday; today he will meet with his counterpart Mehmet Kemal Bozay, and then the two of them will address the Greece–Turkey Business Conference. The organization of the conference is being handled by Enterprise Greece, the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry, SEV, SEVE, and the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, while Mr. Chatzivasileiou is accompanied by top executives from major players in Greek business. Among others, there are representatives from Metlen, Base Metal of the HALCOR group, Europa Aluminium, Swissport, Elbak, Pobuca, and Sky Express.

The National Bank, the next step, and the dilemma

That the National Bank of Greece is preparing an acquisition move aimed at boosting its revenues in anticipation of further interest rate cuts is well known and already priced in by the market. Efforts in domestic asset management don’t seem to be yielding results. At the same time, glances toward Italy (from all banks) haven’t produced any outcome, as entry into the Italian banking market is neither easy nor straightforward, while the insurance sector—currently in turmoil—is proving more accessible. Ergo and NN appear more receptive, especially the former, which has caught the eye of more than one bank, and Groupama could also be a viable option. One issue complicating matters for the National Bank is the special rights held by the state, namely the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP), which remain in place despite the reduction of its stake from 40.4% to 8.39%. The National Bank isn’t worried about whether it will happen or not, because there is a vague initial “OK” from the ESM. However, the relevant legislative provision must be drafted, the ESM must agree to it, and then it must pass through Parliament. The problem is that acquisitions are typically handled within a tight circle of top management—at most three to five executives, such as the CEO, the CFO, etc. But the special rights of the state involve the HCAP board members in the plan, thus widening the circle, since advisors, lawyers, and others are already in the game alongside the bank executives. In mergers and acquisitions, however, you are obliged to act quickly to close the initial deal. In such a case, you take the risk of convincing the special-rights shareholder after the fact, who views the matter from their own (different) perspective and won’t be especially happy if they feel they’ve been ignored.

Avramar’s “overcoat” and Amerra’s obstacles

We’ve entered May and the sale of Avramar to the Arabs of Aqua Bridge remains pending. The UAE fund and the selling banks initially expected to have a deal by the end of April or early May, but it is said that Amerra Capital, the other shareholder along with Mubadala, is creating obstacles. The American capital initially acquired Andromeda from Global Finance and then, together with Mubadala, bought Nireus and Selonda to form Avramar, the biggest player in Mediterranean aquaculture. Amerra and its executives ran Avramar and drove it onto the rocks, prompting the banks to step in again to find a buyer. And while Aqua Bridge is waiting, Amerra reportedly is setting conditions that are hard to accept. Logically, a solution will be found and it’s said to be near, as all sides want the matter to be concluded smoothly. The good news is that under the new management, things have gotten back on track and Avramar has stabilized, increasing its revenues and improving its metrics.

Dividend and forecasts for Aegean

Aegean’s stock is steadily climbing, reaching 12-month highs and closing yesterday at €12.70. The airline is benefiting, among other factors, from the positive start to the tourism season and from declining oil prices. Management wants to capitalize on the momentum, which remains positive despite broader international uncertainties, and this year will increase its offered capacity by 1.9 million seats in 2025—a growth rate higher than the European industry average. For the full year, AEGEAN plans to offer 21.5 million seats, with routes spanning 47 countries and 249 destinations. Naturally, there’s also the dividend factor, with Aegean standing out among listed companies by distributing €0.80 per share (€0.76 net), representing a gross yield of over 6%, one of the highest on the board. In a few days, specifically on Tuesday 20/5, the ex-dividend date is set, and payment will begin on 26/5.

Aegean’s Indian Competitor

And since we are on the topic of Aegean, I should mention that the airline’s management plans to enter the Indian market by the end of 2026 will not be a walk in the park. Aegean’s plans for this particular route will have to contend with the presence of a competitor. The Indian airline IndiGo also intends to start flights to and from Athens in 2026. It is a low-cost carrier based near New Delhi that serves 63% of passenger traffic in India. The company’s CEO, Peter Elbers, is in Athens and even met with Kyriakos Mitsotakis yesterday. IndiGo does not currently operate flights to EU airports, and its first European presence will begin in Athens, with Geneva as a second target. Additionally, note that it expects to take delivery of new A321 aircraft.

OPAP Confirms Its Reputation

OPAP’s stock is a classic investment choice for those who believe in steady economic growth and expect high dividend returns. One of the characteristics of OPAP’s stock behavior so far is that whenever it “cuts” a dividend, the stock drops for a few sessions, allowing investors to increase their positions at a lower price, only for the stock to regain its momentum shortly afterward. This is exactly what happened last Monday ahead of the distribution of the remaining dividend (€0.80 per share) for 2024. The stock declined, providing an opportunity for those who wanted to invest at a lower price, and as of yesterday, it returned to €19.40 with a market capitalization of €7.2 billion.

Bank Guarantees, the Eldorado for Insurance Companies

The explosive increase in large public works assignments, aided by the Development Fund, the NSRF, and the Public Investment Program (PIP), has created a demand for the issuance of bank guarantees, which are necessary for taking on these projects. While banks play a leading role in issuing guarantees, recently insurance companies with strong reinsurance backing and the necessary licensing (notable examples include Interamerican and Europa Insurance) have also increased their participation in issuing guarantees. There are also other examples, such as the smaller Euroins Insurance, which belongs to the Eurohold Group. Over the last 7 months, Euroins has changed its management structure, appointed Greek CEO Angeliki Mouratidou, quickly restructured its automobile insurance department—its core activity—and focused on guaranteeing smaller projects, which has boosted turnover by 30% compared to last year, as well as profitability.

The New Investment Fund of the HCAP

Its name is IIF (Infrastructure & Innovation Fund), and it will be the new specialized subsidiary of the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP), aimed at investing in key economic sectors of Greece, particularly in infrastructure, innovative businesses, green transition, and digitalization of the economy. Bureaucratic procedures are being finalized, the absorption of the HCAP portfolio was slightly more complicated than initially planned, but by early June, the IIF will begin operations, initially with a capital of €303.5 million, derived from the transfer of EYATH S.A. (Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Thessaloniki) and EYDAP S.A. (Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens) back to the state. There are also plans for new sources of funding. The new IIF will operate as a subsidiary of Growthfund, with independent governance, management, and investment decisions, and BlackRock Financial Markets Advisory (“BlackRock FMA”) will be its strategic advisor. BlackRock FMA has significant experience in investment and asset management, risk management, and technology, as well as extensive knowledge in advising institutional entities on capital markets issues.

Trump’s Tariff Policy Benefited Germany’s Exports

Since the “day of liberation,” the world has been living in great uncertainty regarding the tariffs that President Trump would eventually impose on imported goods and services in the U.S. As expected, ahead of the potential tariff imposition, the U.S. market rushed to accelerate imports and stock up in order to benefit from the transition period. The first beneficiary of this new situation was… the German economy. Germany’s trade surplus jumped sharply to €21.1 billion in March, from €18 billion in February. This surge was driven by an increase in exports, as businesses rushed to send goods before the expected U.S. tariffs were imposed. German exports rose by 1.1% on a monthly basis, while imports fell by 1.4%. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. was the top destination for German exports, which increased by 2.4% from February, as American buyers accelerated purchases to avoid potential tariff hikes.

First Bank Product for Trump’s Tariffs

HSBC announced that it had developed a new loan product specifically targeted at U.S. companies struggling to cover the costs of Trump’s tariffs, which have disrupted global supply chains. HSBC is offering working capital to businesses facing pressure on their cash flows due to higher import costs and supply chain disruptions. The bank is also providing support for businesses in managing the immediate financial impacts of tariffs, while they adjust their procurement strategies and re-route their supply chains before passing on costs to consumers. The loan offers flexible repayment terms and a tailored risk assessment, recognizing the heightened uncertainty in global trade.

The False Image of Market Indices – 42% of Russell 2000 Companies Are in Losses

We daily read and hear about the spectacular rise of indices in Wall Street’s stock markets. However, these indices only reflect a part of the U.S. economic reality, namely the large and powerful (primarily technological) business conglomerates. For smaller-cap stocks, Wall Street is not as generous. The truth is that the new tariff regime, regardless of the final amount, will primarily hurt small-cap companies and small businesses. Futures contracts predict further declines, as investors bet on additional drops in small-cap stocks, which are particularly vulnerable to higher tariffs, in addition to economic slowdown and higher interest rates. Around 42% of companies in the Russell 2000 index are reporting losses, and this percentage is even higher than during the 2008 financial crisis.