After completing an initial cycle of polls two weeks after Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ appearance at the TIF, the Prime Minister’s Office sketches the political environment in which it must operate, with the goal of returning ND to a path of self-sufficiency. According to analysis from the government team, the measures have made an impact but still require greater specification, while responsible sources note that they will be fully understood when citizens see the results of the tax reduction strategy in their wallets.

Within the government camp, there is no overconfidence, but they are satisfied that ND is reuniting part of its base, particularly among productive age groups.

Another notable point is that among younger age groups, measures such as the tax-free threshold or significant tax cuts up to €20,000 are viewed positively by over 30%, an encouraging sign given that this social group has drifted significantly from ND. In any case, restoring ND to European election levels (or higher) in voting intention and improving its numbers is seen positively by the Prime Minister’s Office, as is the broader acceptance of the measures, which creates a wider pool of potential voters for ND. Of course, achieving a majority remains very challenging, but Mitsotakis chooses to focus on the “big picture” and estimates that the political landscape will be very different by the spring of 2027, when elections are planned. However, this does not mean that the situation cannot deteriorate for ND.

In any case, beyond promoting and continually specifying the TIF measures, Mitsotakis seeks to give them ideological characteristics, linking them to the party’s DNA. “ND is the party of the many when we promote tax relief affecting 4 million of our fellow citizens: employees, pensioners, farmers, and professionals,” he said at the Parliamentary Group meeting on Friday, while also highlighting interventions for youth, families, and measures to strengthen national defense.

Openings and Challenges

In this environment, the Prime Minister is clearly trying to reunite the core of his 2023 voters. He continues to reach out to the political center, as seen in the mobilization of former minister and PASOK presidential candidate Andreas Loverdos, while also opening dialogue with the party’s core ahead of a political season with several internal milestones.

Therefore, his decision to reach out again to former ND prime ministers and party presidents was not accidental, even if relations remain frosty. It is a difficult task but, according to an information line, it has already begun at least regarding Antonis Samaras. Reports indicate that this rapprochement is not conducted via a minister or MP with whom Samaras has a relationship. In this context, it is notable that Mitsotakis was not asked about outreach to Antonis Samaras and Kostas Karamanlis in his recent ANT1 interview.

Interestingly, many ND officials, mainly from the right-wing faction, support renewed engagement with Samaras. Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis recently spoke warmly of Samaras, saying he is grateful to him, loves him, and respects him. In a similar vein, Migration Minister Thanos Plevris and Makis Voridis have expressed hopes for renewed communication between Mitsotakis and Samaras. Many ND MPs share this view, though the undertaking is inherently difficult, as people close to Samaras point out that it would require “admission of mistakes” from Mitsotakis and corresponding actions—something hard for the Prime Minister’s Office.

In general, Samaras seems emotionally distanced from Mitsotakis. Some even believe he is determined to prevent Mitsotakis from serving a third term as Prime Minister. Scenarios for creating an independent party are circulating, and Samaras’ associates believe public opinion surveys show a “sufficient base” in society receptive to his potential party. Within this context, Samaras made a politically precise intervention, supporting Pano Routsis’ request to exhume and return the body of his son who died in Tempi—a move that, while sparking discussions, also underscored his divergence from government policy, which maintains that it does not intervene in the judiciary.

Maximos, Evripidis, and…Patelis

An even more difficult case than Samaras is former Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis. Reconnecting with Mitsotakis appears harder, as there was virtually no prior connection. Karamanlis consistently and carefully distances himself from any speculation about supporting or signaling support for Samaras’ party. As the founder’s nephew, Karamanlis carries a different weight, but this does not mean he will readily respond to any gesture from Mitsotakis.

On the other hand, Mr. Mitsotakis is making some meaningful moves toward the Karamanlis faction. He decided to propose “veteran” Maximos Charakopoulos as Secretary of the Parliamentary Group. Charakopoulos began his political career as a Member of Parliament under Karamanlis’ New Democracy. He is well acquainted with the “human geography” of MPs and has never been considered one of the “easy” MPs for the Prime Minister’s Office. His appointment was primarily recommended by the Speaker of the Parliament, Nikitas Kaklamanis, who now communicates much more effectively with Mitsotakis compared to the recent past.

It is also highly likely that Mitsotakis will attend the book launch of Karamanlis-aligned MP Evripidis Stylianidis on Artificial Intelligence, scheduled for Wednesday, October 8, at Rigillis Street, opposite the Conservatory.

Karamanlis will also be present, so this will likely mark the first handshake between the two since that… frosty evening—before Samaras was expelled—at the Konstantinos Karamanlis Foundation in the hills of Filothei. Of course, staying true to his approach of bilateral engagement, Mitsotakis is also expected the following day (October 9) at the book launch of his former economic office director Alexis Patelis, titled “The Great Return: The Path to Greece’s Credibility”, which details the international climate shift achieved for Greece by the Mitsotakis government.

It should be noted that during the Parliamentary Group meeting, Mitsotakis also revealed the roadmap for ND’s internal party processes leading up to the party congress, expected to take place in April, after Easter. The ONNED Congress is scheduled for October 3–5, coinciding with the party’s anniversary (October 4). Orfeas Georgiou is expected to be re-elected as president. On November 23, and if necessary, November 30, internal party elections will be held to elect the presidents of local and regional ND organizations, as well as delegates.

Pre-congresses

Starting in December, the party will hold pre-congress meetings in major cities outside of Attica. Party sources indicate that there will be at least four, possibly up to six, depending on the Prime Minister’s schedule. Major cities on the radar include Thessaloniki, Heraklion, Patras, Ioannina, and Larissa. The process will likely culminate in the final congress before the elections, where the new Political Committee of ND will also be elected.

Internal party dynamics are expected to be interesting. In the past, the Samaras faction was active, while the Karamanlis-aligned faction was less so. It remains to be seen whether centrifugal tendencies will emerge within the party, and how members who feel “on the outside” or disagree with leadership decisions will choose to express themselves.

For example, experienced MP for Eastern Attica Giorgos Vlachos requested on Friday, during the Parliamentary Group meeting, that a ballot be held for the election of the Secretary. He cited the precedent from July, when MPs were “bypassed” through postal voting in the rejection of a preliminary investigation proposal for OPEKEPE. It is clear that there is a “personal gap” between Vlachos and Mitsotakis. Other ND MPs have also distanced themselves from key decisions, though they have not openly rebelled. All of this is known to the Prime Minister’s Office, with Mitsotakis holding multiple meetings with MPs these days and encouraging them to step forward to amplify ND’s message to the public.